As we arrive at the midway point of the 2024 NFL season, and there are very different vibes in the NFC and AFC when it comes to the playoff race. In the AFC, the top teams have already separated from the pack. There are really only nine teams that qualify as “in the hunt” for the seven playoff spots, with the Bills, Chiefs, and Texans in commanding leads already in their divisions. In the NFC, it’s much more condensed with 11 teams at .500 or better and two more teams at 3-4. Only the Saints, Panthers, and Giants feel firmly out of the hunt, and no team holds more than a 1-game advantage in their division. As we shift towards the second half of the season, we’ll have to see if anyone can create separation in the NFC, while in the AFC, we might know the seven playoff teams by Christmas.
Primetime Game of the Week: Buccaneers at Chiefs (8:15 p.m. ET, Monday Night Football, ESPN)
It’s not the best primetime slate this week, but Monday Night Football will bring the game that has the most potential for fun. The Bucs have been in shootouts seemingly every week, with six of their eight games finishing with point totals of 49 or more, including last week when both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were out. Now, they welcome in an undefeated Chiefs team that has been dragging teams into the mud each week and asking them to out-execute Patrick Mahomes and company late in games. No one’s been able to do that yet, and if there were ever a time for the Chiefs offense to breakout for a big scoring week, it’s against a Bucs team that is giving up a ton of points this season.
Sunday Funday Game of the Week: Lions at Packers (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX)
The NFC North is the best division in football by a healthy margin, and the best game of the week pits the top two teams in that division against each other. The Lions have been an absolute buzzsaw, but Jared Goff tweaked an ankle in practice and we’ll have to see if that has any impact on his movement on Sunday. The Packers, meanwhile, just keep finding ways to win games. It’s not always pretty, but here they are at 6-2 and can move into first in the division with a win over Detroit. I expect a fun one in Lambeau, where the elements might play a role, as the forecast calls for a high of 51, rain, and winds at 14 miles per hour.
Under the Radar Banger: Chargers at Browns (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
If you’re a fan of defense, this is the game for you this week. The Browns defense held the Ravens explosive offense to 24 last week and there’s suddenly some juice in Cleveland with Jameis Winston under center on offense. The Chargers, meanwhile, have been the stingiest defense in football this season, allowing just 13 points per game and are fully committed to playing Har-ball on offense, which is to say, running the ball and working clock. I’m not sure this will be a game that you’ll want to lock in on for all 60 minutes, but I do expect it to be tight in the fourth quarter and watching both of these offenses trying to score in crunch time should be fascinating and/or hilarious to watch.
Who Won The MVP Last Week: Jameis Winston
Deshaun Watson has never thrown for a 300 yard game as a member of the Browns and Jameis Winston stepped in and did that in his first game starting, throwing for 337 yards and three touchdowns to beat the rival Ravens (and lead the league in passing for the week). Now, it should be said that, being Jameis, he did actively try to throw multiple interceptions that the Ravens dropped (including one by Kyle Hamilton that would’ve won the game for Baltimore), but that’s all part of the experience. Having a quarterback with some life in his arm and a willingness to trust a read and throw it was all it took for the Browns offense to come back to life.
Best Bet (4-4): Saints at Panthers OVER 43.5 (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
We will be betting NFC South Overs until proven otherwise. We smashed it last week in Falcons-Bucs and we’re going right back to the well with Saints-Panthers. The Saints went over this number by themselves in Week 1 against Carolina, and while I know neither of these offenses have looked great of late, their defenses are both bad enough to give up points — especially the Panthers. The only teams not to score 28 on the Panthers this season are the Chargers and Raiders (who both still scored 26 and 22 respectively), and those two teams actively hate the concept of scoring points. Derek Carr is back and I know Saints fans don’t love him, but he can carve up this Panthers team and I expect New Orleans to get into the 30s and for Carolina to do enough themselves to take us home.
