We put Portland guard Damian Lillard on the cover of Dime issue No. 72 because his rise to a likely Rookie of the Year honor follows the dominant NBA trend of the moment. Lillard is the newest breed of the point guard who takes over, following Kyrie Irving, Russell Westbrook and more. Acknowledging that doesn’t mean we’re blind to the equally as impressive rookie seasons by Andre Drummond and Anthony Davis, however. Davis and Drummond are one-and-doners who resemble polished NBA veterans half a season into their careers. Though Drummond is injured with a stress fracture in his back and will be out likely the next month, and Davis dealt with injuries from the season’s very first week, both are tremendous when healthy.
Who’s better, though? Is it rebounding machine Drummond or all-around talent Davis? We argue. You decide.
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ANDRE DRUMMOND
The argument for Andre Drummond isn’t based on a comparison of skill with Anthony Davis, but rather how they affect the game. With the exception of teams with Michael Jordan or LeBron James, championships are won by dominating down low. Think of the teams hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy and you’ll also realize they had at least one paint-controlling big man. Superstars Shaquille O’Neal and Tim Duncan combined to win 8 out of 9 championships at the turn of the century. Since their run of dominance, the duos of Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins, and Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum were critical in determining championships. Tyson Chandler was credited with changing the culture of the Mavericks with his defense.
Both Davis and Drummond have the ability to influence games like the big men before them. The difference between the 6-10 19-year-olds is the 50-pound size advantage that Drummond holds over Davis. Though both have growth to do, Drummond clearly will be the more imposing force in the long term. Drummond is in the same mold as Shaq, Duncan and Dwight Howard in terms of overpowering opponents down low.
Despite the new breed of scoring point guards centers still win championships. For all of Davis’s skills, he won’t dominate an NBA game like he did at Kentucky as a power forward. The best case comparison for Davis is often Kevin Garnett, who despite an illustrious career, doesn’t have the size to control the paint by himself. Davis, with his similarly thin frame, will also need a sidekick.
Beyond the historical comparison, Drummond is already changing games despite being criminally underused by Pistons coach Lawrence Frank. The stat comparison (13.1 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.8 bpg, 21.17 PER for Davis vs. 7.4 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.7 bpg, 22.66 PER for Drummond) appear to favor heavily to Davis until you factor in that Davis (29 mpg) is playing nearly 50 percent more minutes than Drummond (20 mpg). If he played a comparable amount of minutes, his averages project out to a very Tyson Chandler-esque 11.1 ppg, 11.55 rpg and 2.55 bpg.
Drummond is clearly far from a finished product. The guy’s free throw percentage (36.5 percent) is worse than a lot of players’ three point percentages. His offensive game is limited to dunks, alley-oops and putbacks. His impact, however, is much larger than his skillset. A la Chandler on the Knicks or a healthy Howard, his rolls to the basket cause defenses to collapse and leave shooters or surrender a surefire two points. With the emphasis on floor spacing in today’s game, Drummond’s ability to draw the defense into the paint will prove more valuable than Davis’s shooting ability.
There are glimpses of his potential, however, like when he stole a pass from the Lakers, dribbled down court and dished to Brandon Knight for a dunk last week Sunday. Davis is the bigger name right now and deservedly so after he led Kentucky to the NCAA Championship, but Drummond’s impact right now, along with his untapped potential, makes him the better player. NBA titles, with very few exceptions, go to teams that can control the paint. Drummond is the next stud center that will become be a perennial All-Star and game changing player.
-PAUL PALLADINO
ANTHONY DAVIS
Anthony Davis hasn’t shown his whole hand yet, and it’s more than a little scary to know what cards he’s hiding — and that he doesn’t even realize what some of them are yet.
That’s what happens when the top pick of the 2012 Draft is also its rawest, a player who less than 24 months before his handshake with David Stern was still playing mostly guard as he rode out his growth spurt at his Chicago high school. The point being, very little of how he plays seems practiced or thought out. He’s just been athletically superior enough to stop opponents at the rim, buying time to figure out what his body can do once he’s done growing. To see him play that way and that powerfully against collegiate competition wasn’t altogether surprising, but seeing him discover his NBA game, patchwork as it may seem, has been incredible. When he’s healthy — and he sat out three weeks within the season’s first six — he’s continued to stand out as a remarkable talent even at this level by again coming up with his scoring and defense like an improv comedian.
There’s the crux of why I believe in Davis moreso than Drummond. (Again, it’s not to dull Drummond who, before his back stress fracture, was as tremendous a rookie talent as there has been all season.) He just seems too complete already, if that can be a critique at all. A great offensive rebounder and dunker. OK, I found one surprising thing, and it’s the Piston’s perimeter defense. At the other end is Davis, a sketch barely outlined on paper. Watching Hornets games can be hard to do but usually involves watching him exclusively. What he’ll show is the innate ability to put himself in good positions where he can score knowing his own playmaking skills are limited (75 percent of his buckets come off assists, sixth highest among power forwards). Years after Tyson Chandler left New Orleans a new big man can reach up at any time as a vertical threat for lobs for both dunks and dump-passes once a guard has sucked up defenders. Unlike Chandler, shooting 68 percent inside of 5 feet is not Davis’ lone gift at the moment. Even though he’s still reliant on someone getting him the ball 80 percent of the time (that’s an actual statistic, not exaggeration), he’s a steady 51 percent shooting from 5-to-9 feet. We can talk up per-game averages and the disparity between Davis and Drummond but per 36 minutes, Davis has 15.9 points, 9.5 rebounds, 2.4 blocks and an All-Star level PER.
A reading of Davis’ game as an on-the-spot work comes directly from the individual plays that make up the whole. On offense, he usually sets up either at the elbow for a screen (Eric Gordon has been the most consistent assist man on Davis’ buckets because of their pick-n-roll) but Davis is given the chance to freelance instead of a traditional set. He lurks along the extended low block, circling underneath the baseline for gaps in the defense. Whether that means dragging his defenders off screens or not, he’s still acting like that 17-year-old guard with a growth spurt by seeing a defense by its gaps, not by the players who define its shape. It’s given way to more than a few circus shots, makes improbable another big man could execute if put in that situation. Against Serge Ibaka in November and Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph in late January, he ran into defensive walls before hitting a contested jumper. They’re not particularly high-percentage attempts, but it (and on a global level, too, his overall game) needn’t be evaluated only on the attempt but how he got there. Davis’ defense and offense are some of the most malleable in the NBA, bent to whatever specifications coach Monty Williams needs. The Hornets don’t always get what they need from Davis, but don’t overlook that both his background and future provide a canvas for a player who can change games in impressive ways already – and some we don’t even know yet.
-ANDREW GREIF
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