Basketball is a game of fit. It’s true that teams need multiple stars to win biggest in the NBA, but not even the most talented roster will be crowned champion if its individual players – both primary and ancillary – don’t complement each other’s strengths and weaknesses.
Think back to the Miami Heat at the beginning of 2010-11. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh opened their inaugural season as teammates by going 9-8, baring no resemblance to the team that would eventually win two championships and become the mini dynasty that sheer ability foretold. Miami was a mess those first few weeks, and didn’t even emerge as the force history will remember once it righted the win-loss ship and made the first of four consecutive Finals appearances.
It took trial, error, and time for Erik Spoelstra to realize how the Heatles must be built. After the once-maligned coach made wholesale two-way adjustments marked by playing small full-time, though, Miami immediately morphed into the juggernaut destiny always said it would be.
Most coaches aren’t blessed with the players Spoelstra was. The vast majority lack two elite-level players at their disposal, let alone three. That makes their job of juggling rotations and finding effective five-man units harder than it ever was for Miami’s two-time champion coach. Such is life in the NBA.
But just because a coach’s personnel isn’t peerless doesn’t mean he’s above reproach. It’s November. If there were ever any time to tinker with intriguing lineup combinations during the regular season and perhaps find a killer quintet, this is it. On the flip side, it’s also too early to definitively say a team’s middling high-usage groups will continue to struggle as the 82-game grind continues.
Sample size always matters, and we don’t have much. It certainly bears reminding that coaches likely know their players games’ better than we do, too.
Bottomline: Our opinion isn’t gospel. Neither are those of basketball’s on-court decision-makers, however, which is exactly why Fred Hoiberg, Sam Mitchell, Scott Skiles, Billy Donovan, and Quin Snyder should give these seldom- or never-used dream lineups an opportunity to succeed.
Again, it’s November. What have they got to lose?
Chicago Bulls
- Dream Lineup: Derrick Rose-Jimmy Butler-Doug McDermott-Nikola Mirotic-Joakim Noah
For all the hemming and hawing since the season tipped off about regression on defense without the grating guidance of Tom Thibodeau, the Bulls left Monday’s action with the league’s fifth-best defensive rating – six spots better than they finished 2014-15. It’s offense that’s been Chicago’s relative undoing thus far, which is a surprise not just because of Hoiberg’s stellar reputation on that side of the ball, but also due to the team’s new opening frontcourt of Mirotic and Pau Gasol.
The Bulls’ starters have been solid in the season’s early going. They’re one of only two lineups to play at least 50 minutes and sport a +3.8 overall net rating. Despite him nearly doing so before Noah’s lingering knee pain got the better of him last week, this isn’t a call for Hoiberg to make a change at tip off. Mirotic and Gasol have held up better defensively than even admitted optimists could have anticipated.
But what’s stopping Hoiberg from rocking the boat when he brings in the subs?
Mirotic and Noah, who we’ve long believed make up their team’s best interior tandem, have paired for just 26 minutes this season – less than any other possible combination of the Bulls’ top four big men. And though just over half a game isn’t enough time to glean any long-term conclusions on the viability of playing Mirotic and Noah simultaneously more often, that evidence certainly shouldn’t render the possibility moot, either. They boast tidy offensive and defensive ratings of 100.3 and 85.0, respectively.
The trio we chose to play alongside Mirotic and Noah doesn’t need much explanation. Butler is Chicago’s best player on both ends of the floor; he’s a lock. Rose remains a crucial penetrator for his team, and showed signs of life in a win over the Indiana Pacers on Monday before succumbing to a minor ankle sprain. And McDermott, faults of the eye-test and advanced statistics be damned, offers attributes nobody else on this roster can – ones that would potentially limit the offensive ineptitude of Noah, too.
Would this Chicago lineup get roasted defensively? Maybe. And would it have enough on the other end to withstand that onslaught if jumpers weren’t falling? Debatable. But Noah looks better than he ever did last season and Butler remains one of basketball’s preeminent stoppers, while offensive merits of this group speak for themselves.
Give it a try, Coach.
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Dream Lineup: Ricky Rubio-Andrew Wiggins-Shabazz Muhammad-Nemanja Bjelica-Karl-Anthony Towns
No, this isn’t about Kevin Garnett and Tayshaun Prince. Each of the Timberwolves’ 30-something-year-old starters possess value of both tangible and intangible worth. Mitchell’s starting five, believe it or not, is the most dominant defensive unit in basketball: Its defensive rating of 77.1 tops the league by more than five points per 100 possessions. And guess what? Garnett and Prince are a part of it.
Where Mitchell errs is when he goes to the bench.
For reasons unknown, Minnesota’s interim coach – rest in peace, Flip Saunders – has been extremely reluctant to put Muhammad opposite Wiggins over the season’s first few weeks. Instead, Kevin Martin is the ‘Wolves preferred running mate with its budding franchise player. Martin and Wiggins have notched 83 minutes on the court thus far, more than double the time the Canadian sensation has spent with Muhammad. Just as troubling? Martin and Muhammad’s whopping 114 minutes running the wings.
Those in the know talk of Minny’s preference to play Wiggins at shooting guard so he draws the opposition’s smaller perimeter defender. It’s supposedly one of the reasons the teams starts Prince, and the reigning Rookie of the Year’s late-December surge last season certainly had something to do with Muhammad’s insertion as a starter. Why, then, does Mitchell prefer playing Wiggins with either Martin or Zach LaVine when Prince is on the bench?
That’s one of the many vexing questions posed by the Timberwolves’ rotation patterns, and we won’t pretend we’re able to answer all of them. At some point in 2015-16, though, here’s hoping Mitchell strays from the norm and makes Muhammad his first perimeter substitution to join Rubio, Wiggins, Bjelica, and Towns on the floor.
It’s an absolutely tantalizing young lineup, one whose two-way worth and overall excitability could be a harbinger of what’s to come for this franchise in the future. But why not usher in those good times now for a couple exhilarating stretches on a game-by-game basis?
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Dream Lineup: Russell Westbrook-Anthony Morrow-Andre Roberson-Kevin Durant-Serge Ibaka
Oklahoma City’s 107.5 offensive rating ranks second in the league, and its defense has never been quite as bad as pessimists make it out to be. The Thunder are a decidedly average defensive outfit at the moment, which many teams would consider a minor success given a switch on the sidelines that accompanies major on-court change.
But Durant, Westbrook, and company perform on a curve only reserved for franchises with title aspirations. “Good enough” isn’t good enough for Donovan’s team, which is exactly why he should experiment using a lineup with a limitless ceiling before the games really start to matter.
Gregg Popovich treats the regular season as a science lab. The San Antonio Spurs’ legendary coach frequently tries confounding units during the doldrums of winter that he likely wouldn’t during the spring. Why? Not just to rest the bodies of his most burdened players, but also to ensure San Antonio is ready for whatever wrinkle the playoffs throw its way.
Donovan should take a similar approach with the Thunder at some point in 2015-16.
We’ve covered the limiting effects of Roberson’s presence at length. But it warrants repeating that a simple fix to what ails Oklahoma City at shooting guard isn’t as simple as replacing its jumper-less starter with a bench player. What could mitigate the issue, though, is shifting the Thunder’s lineup construction to surrounding Roberson – by far his team’s best perimeter defender – with four players who can space the floor.
According to nbawowy, Durant and Ibaka have made up their team’s frontcourt for just 30 minutes during the season’s first three weeks. They’ve proven an effective tandem down low in recent memory, however, and could present the key to unlocking the Thunder’s most explosive yet stingy quintet when sharing the floor with Roberson, Westbrook, and Morrow – who remains a lightning rod for discussion.
There’s a sizable contingent of league analysts who maintain that Oklahoma City’s marksman isn’t the defensive sieve some are convinced he is. Early returns from this season suggest otherwise: Morrow’s 110.3 defensive rating is easily the worst among Thunder regulars. But there’s cacophonous noise associated with that number. To wit, the quick-release king sports defensive ratings of 84.0 and 99.7, respectively, when sharing the floor with Roberson and Steven Adams.
Morrow is a playable defender, basically, and his imminent threat combined with the spacing already provided by a downsized frontcourt could make Roberson’s presence palatable. Ask yourself this: When Oklahoma City needs a stop in crunch-time against Steph Curry or James Harden come postseason, who will Donovan want defending the ball?
We know the answer; the Thunder’s rookie coach does, too. And to ensure he’s able to implement it when that time inevitably comes, Donovan needs to try cocooning Roberson with offense over the next few months.
Orlando Magic
- Dream Lineup: Victor Oladipo-Evan Fournier-Tobias Harris-Aaron Gordon-Nikola Vucevic
Elfrid Payton still has a place in the Magic’s future. He’s bordering on elite defensively as a sophomore, and his immense strides at the free throw line suggest optimism regarding his consistently wayward jumper. But Orlando wants to win right now. There’s only so much room for a player with such obvious offensive limitations on a good team, and the unique construct of Magic’s roster makes the second-year floor general’s best attributes somewhat redundant.
Fournier is quietly enjoying a breakout season, feasting in pick-and-rolls with canny rim attacks and launching with success from deep in ways his more ballyhooed backcourt teammates can’t quite manage. Oladipo still has the tools to be an A-plus defender, and possesses enough off-dribble verve to function as a secondary playmaker at the very least.
They should work as a backcourt pairing, but Skiles hasn’t afforded them any chance to do so in 2015-16 – which is made all the more problematic by additional repetition for Orlando at forward.
Harris and Gordon represent either end of the hybrid forward spectrum. The former is highly skilled and physically limited, while the latter is among the game’s rawest yet most athletically gifted players. Alone, those unique packages present a problem for the Magic. But together? Harrison and Gordon could amount to an answer – if Skiles, again, would give them enough time to become it.
They’ve played 58 minutes together this season, which nbawowy tells us is 53 more than Fournier and Oladipo have spent on the court without Payton or any of his backups at point guard.
Orlando’s best players, in no particular order, are Fournier, Oladipo, Harris, and Vucevic. Gordon, along with Mario Hezonja, is one of franchise’s two most promising prospects. And considering the Magic have yet to hit their stride despite a spate of ultra-competitive games, it makes sense for Skiles to play for both the present and future.
And in our opinion, a group of Oladipo, Fournier, Harris, Gordon, and Vucevic is the first-year coach’s surest bet to finding that tricky balance.
Utah Jazz
- Dream Lineup: Alec Burks-Rodney Hood-Gordon Hayward-Derrick Favors-Rudy Gobert
Okay, this is cheating. The Jazz have used this lineup on semi-frequent occasion in the season’s early going. But Snyder’s quintet of three playmaking wings and a pair of dominant goliaths is so exciting that a far broader audience deserves to know of its existence.
Trey Burke has been fantastic off the bench, Raul Neto seems a second-round steal, and the presence of a healthy Dante Exum next season will likely render this group’s time somewhat fleeting. But none of that changes what Utah is able to do with Burks, Hood, Hayward, Favors, and Gobert on the floor.
In 26 minutes this season, they’ve racked up a +40.6 net rating. How? With stunning offensive performance to supplement the typically elite defense we’ve come to expect from most any possible Jazz lineup.
In Burks, Hood, and Hayward, Utah possesses three players capable of initiating offense, running pick-and-roll, and getting their own shot. Just as important, each member of this wing triumvirate can check all three spots on the perimeter – allowing their team to switch off-ball with impunity a la the Golden State Warriors’ elite guards and wings.
Gobert’s value needs no explanation. He’s the world’s best rim protector, and has developed enough comfort on the move to become more than a lob-catcher on the other end. Conversely, Favors might be the league’s most underrated player. He’s the only player in basketball with steal and block rates of 3.5 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, and has emerged as a consistent scoring threat from mid-range and the post. If he were playing almost anywhere else, the 24-year-old’s early-season performance would be making national waves.
No matter, though. Should Utah rely on this lineup more and more as 2015-16 progresses, Favors and his talented, versatile teammates will be well-known soon enough. With winning, after all, comes attention.
*Statistical support for this post courtesy of nba.com/stats and nbawowy.com
