If you’ve got a Dolphins fan on your Facebook page, by now you’ve seen the Harvard study that has analyzed the teams and predicted that next year’s Super Bowl is going to be between the Seattle Seahawks and the Miami Dolphins. But just how credible is the study? Is this really the Dolphins’ year?
To start with, it is fairly credible as far as these things go. Kurt Bullard, the author, used Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value statistic, which is a method used to find the overall quality of each player. He then calculated the approximate value of the 13 key players on the team.
Bullard emphasizes this isn’t perfect: For example, if a player was injured or otherwise not around in 2014, he had to use their 2013 AV. Rookies were assigned the AV of their backup. But, overall, it’s a fairly solid statistical method. He even double-checked it against another statistical analysis courtesy of the sports nerds over at FiveThirtyEight. He does note the big drawback is that this model tends to favor aging teams, because he has more data for them.
His model, it’s worth noting, doesn’t actually predict the Dolphins will win the AFC East, just that they have the best chance of making the playoffs out of the entire AFC East. According to the study, the AFC East will be unusually competitive this year. The Dolphins have the best chance of getting into the playoffs out of the whole division, at 77%, while the Pats have a 62% chance and the Jets have a 56%. The Bills will continue to go wide right, according to this model.
To be honest, nothing’s particularly bizarre about this model, which stops short of predicting a Super Bowl winner. It says the Seahawks and the Packers are virtual locks for the playoffs, which considering their recent history is hardly a surprise. That said, the big problem here is that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, and this does leave out a crucial variable: Coaching.
Joe Philbin has delivered two 8-8 seasons in a row for the Dolphins, and as Seahawks fans know all too well, one dumb call by the coach can blow an entire game. So according to this model, the Dolphins have a lot of raw potential, but it may not matter much if it’s not going to be used properly.
