Three weeks of the 2024 NFL season are in the books, and the results in this space have been poor. On the positive side, things went better in Week 3, and there was genuine optimism going into Sunday. Then, the Cincinnati Bengals managed to lose a game — at home as a touchdown favorite — without punting a single time. The Jaguars were flatly embarrassed, and that was that.
Alas, there is more to hold onto as Week 4 arrives and, before we hand out five picks, let’s check in on the (ugly) season to date.
- Week 3: 2-3
- 2024 Season: 3-12
Come get these winners.
Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers — FanDuel
The Steelers have impressed through three weeks, particularly on defense, but the love-fest has gone a bit too far as a road favorite here. Granted, Indianapolis isn’t exactly a bastion of consistency, but the Colts managed to get us home last week. They’ll do it again.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) over Houston Texans — FanDuel, DraftKings
Look, I don’t want to talk about it. This is a principle play, and it’s so ugly that I don’t even want to give it out. But we have to do what we do and pride ourselves on digging into the garbage at times.
Atlanta Falcons (-2) over New Orleans Saints — DraftKings
We profited from sharp regression on the Saints side last week, even if it didn’t really happen the way that I envisioned. Candidly, I don’t think this is a huge edge, but my evaluation is that the Falcons are (narrowly) better in the aggregate and this is a good spot for Atlanta at home. Hopefully, the Week 3 Saints offense will show up.
New England Patriots (+10.5) over San Francisco 49ers — Widely Available
The public will be falling over themselves to bet the Niners this week coming off back-to-back losses and seemingly in a “must-win” spot at home. Admittedly, San Francisco is probably going to win this game, but I will happily grab the Patriots at this number. Nabbing +10.5 with a total in the low 40’s is attractive, and Jacoby Brissett can keep things on the rails for us against the banged-up 49ers.
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) over Buffalo Bills — Widely Available
I’ve had this spot circled from the moment Buffalo blew Jacksonville away on Monday. If the line was -2.5 or better, I was taking Baltimore. And here we are. The Ravens tried to give away their first win and, yes, I’m worried about their apparent inability to close out games. But Baltimore at home is the side and we’ll sell high, at least to some extent, on Buffalo after a 3-0 start.
