In many circles, Week 11 has been described as the best slate of games so far when it comes to the 2024 NFL season, and it is hard to argue. There was entertaining action in every window other than Monday night and, on a week-to-week basis, that is not always the case. In this space, we also found success with a third winning week in the last four. Granted, it came with a hilarious investment in a team that lost by approximately 100, but a loss counts the same by a half-point or 30 points, right?
Before we get to the Week 12 schedule and five picks against the spread, let’s take a look at the (unfortunately negative) season-long progress.
- Week 11: 3-2
- 2024 Season: 21-33-1
Come get these winners.
Cleveland Browns (+3.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers — Widely Available
We struck with our principles last Thursday to success, and we’re doing it again here. It is unsightly to bet on Cleveland right now, and I won’t argue that. The Browns are 2-8 and having a season from hell. With that said, the market is too high on the Steelers in this spot. Pittsburgh continues to be unreal in an underdog role under Mike Tomlin, but the Steelers are 33-41-3 (44.6%) as a road favorite under his watch. Do I think the games from 2008 impact this week? I do not, but I can’t get this to more than a field goal on a short week in Cleveland. Let’s go Browns.
Indianapolis Colts (+7.5) over Detroit Lions — Widely Available
This is a space that prides itself on taking the stands that few others will take. This is another example. The Lions are dominating everyone. We found that out the hard way last week. But this is really a 7.5-point number on the road? Detroit’s ATS record (8-2) is stellar but things have gone too far. Or maybe we’ll lose this bet and swear off fading the Lions for a while. Either way, I like the home dog here.
TEASER: Houston Texans (-2.5) over Tennessee Titans and San Francisco 49ers (+8.5) over Green Bay Packers — Widely Available
Our Wong teaser of the week is here. Tennessee’s defense has been spunky this season, but the Titans still have Will Levis and a rudderless offense that gives us hope in the Texans at home with the move through key numbers. On the other side, I’ve actually been a touch low on the 49ers compared to the market this season and, while that has been the right stance on the whole, this is a principle play to take it up to 8.5.
Seattle Seahawks (+1) over Arizona Cardinals — BetMGM
Remember when the 12th Man meant something? Well, the Seahawks are 2-4 at home this season, and the word is out on that. While I am not suggesting that home-field advantage is the reason for this play, I like Seattle to keep it going after a strong performance in an upset over San Francisco a week ago. Arizona is off a bye and on a four-game winning streak but, no matter what I do, I can’t get this to a pick’em, much less than +1 available at BetMGM right now.
Baltimore Ravens (-3) over Los Angeles Chargers — Widely Available
I don’t give out many road favorites, but I tend to make exceptions for when the Chargers are the home team. Granted, a lot has changed in Los Angeles, with Jim Harbaugh immediately turning the Chargers into a very competent and effective outfit. However, the Chargers still might have the least significant home-field advantage in the NFL, and Baltimore is at least slightly undervalued here coming off a loss to Pittsburgh.
