Hillary Clinton has a 76 percent chance of winning the election in November, according to the first interactive presidential prediction model released by New York Times’ pollster arm the Upshot. The statistical model combines analysis of each states’ voting history with “roughly 300 state and national polls of the race” to output and graph all likely outcomes. According to the Times, Clinton’s chance of losing “is about the same probability that an N.B.A. player will miss a free throw.”
The Times’ model suggests Clinton will have an easier path to the White House than Donald Trump: she is a strong favorite (85% or likelier) in 15 states, which taken together total 186 of the 270 electoral votes she needs to win. If she can take home the next eight states she’s currently leading in — including Michigan, New Mexico, Minnesota, Colorado, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada — then the White House is hers.
Though Trump has a only a 24 percent chance of victory, the Times noted that a lot can change in 16 weeks. The Upshot model shows Trump with a strong lead in 17 states, though they are largely states with smaller populations, resulting in a total of only 124 electoral votes.
The Times’ model will be updated live throughout the rest of the election as more polling data becomes available. The Republican National Convention is currently underway in Cleveland.
(Via New York Times)