Only 2 Things Stop Detroit From Being East’s Most Dangerous Team

During the 2003-2004 NBA season, a bunch of ragtag veterans in Detroit shocked a star-laden team from Los Angeles by relying on stellar defense and smart, team-first basketball. They counteracted their below-league-average points per game scoring average and low field goal percentage by playing to their unique strengths, and doing it as one. This was the epitome of a “team.”

Flash-forward 10 years and a lot has changed in Detroit: after suffering through some tough seasons due mostly in part to poor team management and drafting, the Pistons finally entered the offseason with some cap space. Pistons brass seemed committed to recapturing that “lightning in a bottle” one decade later. They, like a few other teams (the Wizards, Pelicans, Cavaliers, and Mavs in particular) had their sights set on returning to the playoffs for the first time in the past few seasons (excluding the Mavs, of course). In today’s NBA, there are really only two ways to build a playoff team: through the draft slowly or by poaching other team’s best players in free agency (or some mix of the two, i.e. the Pacers). Both can be challenging in their own right, but for demanding owners, free agency is the way to go.

So this offseason Detroit went out and signed the second or third-best free agent (depending on whether or not you think Chris Paul was really entertaining leaving the Clippers) and dealt for a high-profile point guard capable of facilitating or finding his own shot. They add into the mix their two young big men: a freakishly athletic center whose a legitimate double-double threat, plus 2-3 blocks a night threat, and a lanky power forward with increasing range, above average passing ability, and high basketball I.Q. Sound at all familiar?

With this sweeping overhaul comes many questions, some of the biggest being: can the combination of Josh Smith, Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond play extended minutes together effectively? How are Brandon Jennings and Smith adjusting to their new roles and team? (Both were in situations where they were at least sharing alpha dog status) Is Greg Monroe a part of their long-term plans? Who will step up and become their three-point threat?

While I’m not ready to call for another banner to be made in D-Town just yet, the talent is there to make some noise when the playoffs come around. But for that to happen, this year’s Pistons have to take some advice from that decade-old Pistons team and accept their individual shortcomings and play to their collective strengths. Let’s take a look at some of the early observations of Detroit this season.

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As I am writing this, the Pistons record stands at 2-2, having beaten Washington and Boston, and having lost to Indiana and Memphis. What does that say about them? I think it says that they’re neither a top or bottom-level team. While each game has been relatively close (a slow start against Indiana prevented a Pistons comeback, and they took a tough Memphis team into overtime after giving up a lead late in the game). So, they’re beating teams we expect them to beat, and playing the better teams tough.

The statistics reflect the “Pistons are above-average” mantra: they’re the 13th-most efficient offense at 99.3 points per 100 possessions, and the 10th-most efficient defense, giving up 98.6 points per 100 possessions. They actually are scoring more than most predicted; they’re tied for 12th in PPG (99.8 for them while holding opponents to 97.3 per game). While they score a relatively high number of points, they aren’t doing it together; they only assist on a bucket 18.5 times per game (20th in the league), and they turn the ball over… a lot: 18.8 times per game (sixth-highest)! Yes, you read that right. The Pistons have a negative turnover ratio.

But where they really stand out is on the glass. Detroit has the fifth-highest rebound differential rate in the league, out-rebounding opponents by 3.3 a game! They hit the offensive glass (13.8 offensive rebounds per game, good enough for third), which makes up for their poor performance on the defensive glass (29.0 per game, fifth-lowest) and is a necessity when you feature inefficient shooters like Brandon Jennings and Josh Smith.

Keep reading to hear about how their three bigs are fitting in together…

*The Three Bigs Can Play Together… Sort Of
When Detroit signed Josh Smith this offseason, I was one of the first to applaud the deal. Why? Two reasons:

1. When you’re not an overtly talented team, I think you should always take a flier on a talented player regardless on fit, if the price is right. The price was right — they signed Smith to below the max ($56 million/four years).
2. Secondly, I am admitted Smith-lover; although he is one of the most frustrating players in the NBA (stop shooting threes, Josh!), he has game-changing athleticism and talent (More on him later). I thought that with two out of the three “bigs” being above average and willing passers, the Pistons could make it work. But what do the statistics say?

The 3-man lineup of Drummond, Monroe and Smith is the second-most used 3-man unit for the Pistons (behind only Billups, Monroe and Smith at 25.5 MPG), playing 24.3 minutes per game together. The statistics show exactly what you think they would. This unit plays tremendous defense and rebounds exceptionally well, but has no three-point shot, shooting only 28.1 percent from deep. One of the most effective plays they have is Smith in the corner with the ball, Monroe (flashes high-post and receives the pass) faces up and takes his man of the dribble before dishing to a weak side-cutting Andre Drummond. Works every time.

Taking it a step further, the statistics back up my hypothesis: when the group plays with Chauncey Billups at shooting guard (i.e. their best three-point shooter), the lineup does very well (this excludes the Brandon Jennings at point guard group, which is still working out the wrinkles…more on B. Jennings later). The Rodney Stuckey or Will Bynum-led unit (who was starting in Jennings’ absence) with Billups and the three bigs have all been successful. Bynum’s group (51.2 percent FG, 33.0 percent 3FG) has a positive turnover ratio, albeit small (8.7/8.0) and have outscored opponents by 2.3 points.

The Stuckey-led group (50.0 percent FG, 66.7 percent 3FG, a 3-1 turnover ratio) have been outscored by one point defensively. Through two games, a group headlined by Jennings has done horrendously, shooting 38.1 percent with no three-pointers, a negative turnover ratio (two assists for every 6.5 turnovers) and have been outscored by 13 points. YIKES. But, excluding that group, who have yet to log many real minutes together this season, and the big three have fared well together. The key concern is can someone keep the defense from collapsing on the paint (which clogs the lanes, rendering their athletics bigs ineffective).

*Josh Smith Hasn’t Changed
Smith’s God-given talent, mixed with his style of play, makes him one of the most frustrating players in the league. I have long believed that if Smith limited his three-point shooting and focused solely on attacking the hoop (where he is nearly unstoppable), he would finally make the leap to All-Star. But even with me being a total Smith Stan, I think I have come to grips with the fact that Smith will never put it together. I know, I know, you’re just as heartbroken as I am. His stat line this season (17.3 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.5 SPG, 2.25 BPG and 4.8 turnovers) is nearly the same as his last season in Atlanta (17.5 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.8 BPG and 3.0 TPG).

Smith’s shot is suffering as the Pistons offense finds its groove: his low shooting percentages of 40.9 percent, 25.0 percent from three (low even for him) should improve as play continues. Same goes for his career-high turnover rate.

Those hoping that a new team would mean a new Smith, I’m sorry to say he’s stayed true to his ways. According to SportVU (everyone’s new favorite NBA toy), Smith shoots an incredible 83.3 percent on close shots (shots taken within 12 feet of the basket, excluding drives), which for reference, is higher than renowned paint-lover Dwight Howard (63.6 percent) and superstars LeBron James (81.8 percent) and Carmelo Anthony (80.0 percent). He’s pretty good driving to the hoop as well, making exactly half of his attempts. His downfall is his inefficient catch and shoot (26.1 percent on 4.5 attempts per game) and pull-up game (15.4 percent on 1.3 attempts). This all makes fans, haters and coaches alike very frustrated. Has anyone showed Smith a graphic of his shooting? Does he not know how bad he shoots from outside the paint? Channeling Stan, I want to tell Josh, “STAY NEAR THE HOOP JOSH, I KNOW YOU HERE ME!”

Keep reading to see what’ll happen with Greg Monroe…

*Monroe is playing for a raise
Monroe, who will be a restricted free agent at the end of the season (after failing to reach an agreement before last Thursday’s deadline), is playing like he deserves the max his next deal. Monroe is averaging career-highs in minutes (38.5M), points (17.3) and rebounds (11.0). In other words, Monroe is in a Marshawn Lynch-like beast mode right now.

I’m not a member of the Pistons front office so I don’t know their long-term plans, but I don’t know why they wouldn’t lock him up/why they didn’t already. Power forwards with great basketball I.Q., an improving midrange game, and tremendous rebounding ability only come around every so often. Monroe has grabbed the ninth-most rebounds this season (44) and SportVU says he grabs more contested rebounds (meaning an opponent is within 3.5 feet) than Dwight Howard and Joakim Noah. I’m not a stat-obsessed guy. I think there are certain aspects to a way a player performs thar cannot be measured entirely with statistics. But, I do think they highlight areas where a team/player can improve, and the stats are highlighting Monroe’s improved focus when it comes to the glass.

If the Pistons are going to trade Monroe, his stock has never been higher. Either way, if he keeps up his current level of play, he will be making near-max money somewhere next season.

*Drummond continues to be a beast
Andre continues to develop a cult-like following with NBA stat-obsessed fans for his great per-36 numbers, and his play this season is pushing him towards a full breakout campaign. Through four games, Drummond has averaged a double-double (11.3 PPG and 11.3 RPG) and along with Smith, makes up an intimidating shotblocking frontline. I won’t say much about Drummond’s offensive game because as of right now he is only scoring as a finisher (Monroe and Smith account for 102.8 touches per game. Not many opportunities for Andre.) If there was one song to describe Andre’s role within the offense, it would be “Forgot About Dre” because unless he’s receiving an alley-oop, he rarely gets a touch.

According to SportVU, Drummond grabs an incredible 69.2 percent “per-chance” rebounds (which measures the number of rebounds a player recovers in relation to the overall number of chances), which is right on par with rebound-hoarder Anthony Davis (69.5 percent). Drummond’s shotblocking numbers are statistically identical to swatter Serge Ibaka. Noth average 1.3 and hold opponents to 50 percent around the rim, which shouldn’t be overlooked when you’re guarding the team’s best post player most of the time.

Drummond might be an even better defender than Ibaka, because in addition to blocking shots, he’s also averaging 1.5 steals per game. The only thing holding Drummond back is his penchant for fouling — for the season, Andre averages just fewer than four a game (3.8 to be exact), often picking up early fouls, which limits his minutes the rest of the game. The next step in his progression will be cutting down the fouls and fixing that horrendous foul shot of his (shooting a Shaqian 20 percent from the line).

*Jennings hasn’t found his groove yet
After breaking his jaw and missing the first two games of the season, Brandon Jennings returned to the lineup against Boston, and so far his performance has been so-so (15.5 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 5.0 APG, 3.0 TPG and 3.0 SPG). He’s shooting a career-low from the field (34.4 percent and 25 percent from three), which is partially due to him rushing, and partially because he’s still trying to find his role within the offense. Jennings has been particularly inefficient off of pull-ups, shooting a paltry 21.7 percent. I believe things will improve once he gets fully back into the swing of things and adjusts to his new teammates. One positive so far has been his defense. Since he has only played in two games, Jennings does not qualify for the leaderboard, but if he kept up his current numbers, he would be tied for second in steals per game at 3.0, trailing only Chris Paul at 3.4.

*Mr. Big Shot’s return
We all know the back story: Billups was once the star point guard of the championship-winning Pistons team before becoming a basketball-nomad, traveling to destinations like Denver, New York and Los Angeles before returning to Detroit this offseason. After tearing his Achilles’ tendon in L.A., Billups’ already declining athleticism has diminished even more but his steady presence on the court and role as three-point marksmen are still crucial to this team’s success. So far, Billups has performed well (7.5 PPG, 3.5 APG on 37.5 percent on both FG and three-pointers) starting at the two guard. Chauncey may not stop even me off the dribble, but he is still a reliable spot-up player, shooting 50 percent in catch-and-shoot situations.

But that is about it when it comes to shooting. His pull-up shot field goal percentage is only 31.6 and he has yet to even take a shot close to the rim or on the drive. What do those stats mean? Chauncey is rarely even stepping inside the three-point arc, and is only a threat to score off other’s penetration. Still, he’s a capable secondary ballhandler, dishing a respectable 3.5 assists in over 26.7 minutes a game. He also averages a full “hockey assist” per game (a pass that immediately leads to an assist).

Is he really a starting shooting guard? Probably not. Chauncey Billups is best suited for a Ray Allen-esque role on a contender. But Mr. Big Shot’s high level of skill will keep him around a little longer even as his athleticism continues to disappear.

Maybe this team isn’t ready to rise to a top-four spot in the East, but with this degree of talent, a five or six seed in a manageable Eastern Conference is a possibility. As Jennings and Smith adjust and team develop chemistry, an underrated Pistons team could move up with the Knicks suffering from the injury bug. The metrics say the Pistons are a top-15 team, and I love their ability to rebound and guard the hoop. Now it’s just time to clean up those turnovers and bad shots.