Luka Doncic has assisted on 62 corner three-pointers this season, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The number seems impressive on its face, but not “shout it from the top of the mountain” worthy. That distinction might fall instead on fellow rookie Trae Young, whose 86 assists on corner threes this season lead the NBA.
But dig a bit deeper into the numbers and film and you find a player with an elite skillset waiting to have the right teammates around him.
For starters, the Dallas Mavericks are shooting 36.1 percent on corner threes on the season, a mark that ranks 24th in the NBA. Since making the future-facing acquisition of Kristaps Porzingis at the deadline, the Mavs’ corner three-point shooting has plummeted to a frigid 30.5 percent, better than only the Los Angeles Lakers since Feb, 1.
Take a look at the way Doncic’s current teammates are shooting from the corners. It’s … not good.
Doncic has finished 51.3 percent of his possessions as the ballhandler in the pick and roll this season, a large reason why he’s currently on pace to tie Michael Jordan for the second highest rookie usage rate ever at 29.8 percent. On these possessions, he has demonstrated an expert-level ability to manipulate weakside defenders, taking advantage of the slightest momentum shifts or missteps.
Watch here as Doncic notices Taj Gibson divert his focus ever so slightly towards the rolling DeAndre Jordan. The rookie uses this distraction to rip a pass to the corner, where Kleber drains a wide open three.
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Watch Doncic regularly and you begin to notice the frequency with which he finds teammates spotting up in the corners. A pass that’s complicated for most players is mundane for the Slovenian.
Doncic targets the weakside “tag” defender as a predator hunts its prey, a baby-faced wolf in sheep’s clothing. Wander too far into the paint and Doncic will pass behind your rotation for an open three …
… but fail to move early and risk Doncic throwing an off-beat lob before you know what hit you.
Doncic’s ability to survey the floor in a nanosecond while he simultaneously engages his defender forces defenders to stay engaged at all times off ball. If he catches someone out of position, like Mike Conley here, Doncic has the ability to zip a pass to a waiting teammate at a moment’s notice.
The Mavericks are scoring 1.15 points per possession off Doncic’s passes in the pick and roll, which ranks 12th among all high-volume pick and roll handlers. He has posted this mark despite a roster stripped to its bones with an eye toward the future and a supporting cast ill-suited for his needs.
Dallas finishes 20.9 percent of its possessions with Spot Ups, which is the ninth-most in the NBA. They rank middle-of-the-pack when it comes to efficiency, but an individual assessment of the current roster paints a bleak picture.
Dallas’ most efficient wing player in Spot Up points per possession is Finney-Smith, whose 0.926 ppp ranks 161st of 194 players with at least 100 Spot Up possessions on the season. Yikes.
You can imagine the crux of Dallas’ offense for years to come being centered around a Doncic-Porzingis high ball screen with shooters spacing. As the handler, Doncic often puts wing players in a position to catch the ball with a scrambling defender recovering, giving them the option of shooting the three or a show-and-go drive to the bucket.
Plays like this Brunson drive are a frequent result of Doncic’s pick and roll prowess.
Using this as a backdrop, we can begin to shape a picture of how Dallas should build its roster to best maximize the advantages Doncic creates as a ball handler. The Mavericks enter this summer with the ability to create near-max cap space. If they keep all their guaranteed contracts as well as Porzignis, Finney-Smith and Kleber’s restricted free agent cap holds, they will have $30.2 million in space, per Early Bird Rights.
They have a strong incentive to keep Finney-Smith under 2,000 minutes played on the season, ensuring he does not meet the starter criteria for his qualifying offer. He is currently on pace to log 2,079 minutes, which would boost his qualifying offer from $1.9 million to $3 million. Assuming Finney-Smith rests a game or three down the stretch, the Mavs will be a mere $2.5 million short of creating a 7-9 year max slot, something that could be acquired if, for example, Justin Jackson’s $3.3 million deal is moved.
This distinction is incredibly important as the two free agents they should look to target this summer both fall into that bucket.
Let’s start in Philadelphia with the fifth-most efficient Spot Up player in the NBA this season, Tobias Harris. The former Clipper has scored 284 points on 220 Spot Up possessions (1.29 ppp) between L.A. and Philly this season. Harris has exactly the versatility necessary to take advantage of Doncic’s creation out of the pick and roll. He is scoring 1.33 ppp on Spot Up jumpers and 1.5 ppp when he attacks the basket out of Spot Up situations this season.
Station him in the corner and he will make you pay to the tune of 47.6 percent shooting over the past two seasons.
Harris is in the midst of a career year from behind the arc, where he is shooting 42.1 percent overall and ranks in the 95th percentile of my 3-Point Value over Average metric.
While the Sixers appear willing to do whatever it takes to keep Harris this summer, it is not difficult to envision the veteran sliding in as the perfect mid-tier usage wing next to Doncic. He should be the number one target on Dallas’ board this offseason.
If the Mavs come up short in their pursuit of Harris, they can turn their attention north. In his first year under new head coach Mike Budenholzer, Khris Middleton has slowly begun to optimize his shot selection. Middleton has reduced his share of midrange attempts from 52 percent to 37 percent while increasing his three-point attempt rate from 30 percent to 40 percent of his shots.
Middleton has kept his above the break three-point percentage (39 percent) in line with his excellent career-norms but has dipped to just 30 percent from the corners, albeit on a mere 56 attempts. The drop-off should not be concerning for the career 44 percent corner three-point bomber.
The Bucks’ second-option ranks 51st in Spot Up efficiency, posting 1.11 ppp on these plays. He has a 57.6 effective field goal percentage on no dribble jumpers out of Spot Up situations. Middleton would present a bit of a different foil to Doncic, giving Dallas a higher usage option to potentially shift the rookie off-ball in certain situations.
This may be appealing given Doncic’s unmatched combination of games played and usage rate over the last year. He has looked a bit banged up of late and has shot a mere 31 percent from deep on over seven attempts per game following the All-Star Break.
If Dallas is unable to land either of these big fish, they might go swimming in a smaller pond. One final target to keep in mind is Bojan Bogdanovic, who is in the midst of a career year for the surprising Indiana Pacers.
Bogdanovic is shooting a blistering 55-104 (53 percent) on corner threes this season and is a career 44 percent shooter from the corners. He has scored 1.19 ppp on Spot Up possessions this season, which ranks 20th in the NBA. Bogdanovic’s size would allow him to pair well next to Doncic on the wing and his price tag may enable to Mavs to chase a mid-tier point guard option that can slot into the starting lineup ahead of Brunson.
These three players represent the ideal archetype to supplement the Doncic/Porzingis pairing going forward. They are knockdown shooters who can provide varying levels of secondary creation and have the requisite size to take some of the tougher defensive assignments on the other end.
Dallas should be aggressive in pairing Doncic with players who maximize his offensive skillset, one that takes advantage of help defenders in pick and roll by putting pressure on the defense with his passing. In doing so, the Mavs can look to accelerate their jump from near-bottom of the West to frisky playoff team in the near future.
