You can hand out all the midseason grades you want in college basketball, but at either end of the bell curve are the outliers — classes of teams either getting all A’s or F’s.
As conference schedules begin this week, six undefeated and six winless teams remain. Dime examines which teams will drop out of this distinguished (or infamous) company, and when.
Undefeated
Indiana: First loss is Dec. 28 against Michigan State on the road. Will the Hoosiers look ahead to a Dec. 31 meeting with Ohio State a few days too early? Indiana scores better than all but 11 Division I teams (82.2 ppg) and takes care of its opponents, outscoring them by 20. But never doubt Sparty’s solid defense, one of the best nationally again, and State’s resolve at the Breslin Center under Tom Izzo.
Louisville: First loss is Dec. 31 at Kentucky. Peyton Siva is a first-team all-Big East caliber player but does his best work driving, which gets teammates involved. Anthony Davis is the biggest problem for that to work though in this game, leading the nation’s best block attack that averages 10 per game.
Missouri: First loss is Jan. 30 vs. Texas. Watch out for the Longhorns, who can run with the Tigers (80.5 ppg) and hold opponents to 36.5 percent shooting, too. They’ll have to contend with Missouri’s own undefeated defense, though, which averages 10 steals per game and has smothered opponents.
Syracuse: First loss is Jan. 7 to Marquette at home. The bottom line is the Orange are better because they take the ball away the best in the nation, getting 8.6 more turnovers than they give. Syracuse won’t have to play at Pitt or Marquette this season, but the Golden Eagles could bring a surprise into the Carrier Dome a month before many expect Syracuse to lose first in a Georgetown-UConn-Louisville stretch.
Baylor: First loss is Jan. 21 vs. Missouri at home. Five days after a huge game in Lawrence against Kansas (where the Bears’ fifth-best 34.8 field-goal percentage defense guides them out of the Phog), the Bears could get tripped up against the Tigers, who lead the nation in scoring margin.
Murray State: First loss is in its conference tournament. Murray isn’t the best team in college, of course, but playing in the easiest of any league of remaining undefeated teams doesn’t offer much to show why the Racers will lose in the next two months. If that’s the case, a shot at perfection and the pressure of a conference tournament title could result in a first loss. It won’t keep them out of the NCAA Tournament, however.
Winless
Binghamton: Best chance is Dec. 28 against Canisius. A big problem is on defense, where they allow opponents to shoot 49.2 percent, 331st worst out of 338 (but Caniusius isn’t far behind at 47.9 percent). The Bearcats are still recovering from losing six players, a head coach, two assistants and an athletic director from 2009’s admisions scandal. In response they decided not to play in the postseason in 2010 — but it will take a monumental turnaround for Binghamton to get to the postseason in 2011, either.
Towson: Best chance is Jan. 11 against William & Mary at home. But after that, in a tough CAA, there might not be another win. The Tigers play poorly on offense — 52.3 ppg bad. But that’s in part because they cut short their possessions, averaging 10.3 more turnovers per game than opponents (only Grambling is worse in all of D-I). That’s what can happen when zero backcourt players returned this season.
Northern Illinois: Best chance is Jan. 2 against NAIA Roosevelt. Outscored by an average of 18.2 ppg, it won’t get any better in against a decent MAC schedule. The Huskies have to beat the NAIA Lakers.
Hartford: Best chance is Jan. 15 against Binghamton. The Hawks have come close, losing their last two by three to both Niagara and Marist, the latter in double overtime. Not even a name-brand like Nate Sikma — son of seven-time NBA All-Star Jack Sikma — has been able to tilt the odds in favor of the Hawks, who are being outrebounded by 8.3 boards per game, which stands in the bottom 13 of the nation.
Chicago State: Best chance is Jan. 21 against Houston Baptist at home. Chicago is trying to stay afloat amid a winless team’s imperfect storm: can’t rebound (-7.3 rpg), can’t defend (opponents shoot 47 percent) and can’t hold the rock (-5.1 turnover margin). The silver lining is, Houston Baptist isn’t far behind in all those categories.
Grambling: Best chance is Feb. 25 against Mississippi Valley State at home. Why so late? There isn’t a team out of 338 others in Division I worse at scoring than Grambling at just 42.9 ppg, meaning the Tigers have to play flawless defense just to give themselves a chance.
When do you think the undefeated teams will lose? When do you think the winless teams will win?
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