Trophy Talk: The Oscars Are Almost Here. Who Will Win?

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People love watching famous people accept trophies. So, every so often, The Huffington Post’s Chris Rosen and Uproxx’s Mike Ryan will speculate about these trophies and which famous person might win one. It will be fun. Let’s talk some trophies! Today, we make our final predictions before this weekend’s Academy Awards.

Mike: Hey, Chris. The Oscars are this weekend. We’ve almost made it.

Chris: We have. It’s been a trip. Boyhood premiered at Sundance on Jan. 19, 2014. We’ve been talking about this movie for 13 months.

Mike: And now it’s probably not even going to win. You know, people complain that Oscar season is too long — and they are correct — but usually, the complaints center around people just being bored of the whole thing. The reality is, all of this extra time just gives people the chance to be nasty, like that “brutally honest” Academy member who wrote for Hollywood Reporter today. I mean, this is all nonsense, but the nice thing about nonsense is that nonsense should at least be fun or entertaining. This is all just awful. I mean, complaining that the cast of Selma wore “I Can’t Breathe” T-shirts to the premiere? I mean, what is happening?

Chris: It’s kind of outrageous. The whole thing reminds me of Fever Pitch (yes, I like Fever Pitch). There’s a scene in the movie where Jimmy Fallon is super upset after a Red Sox loss, and he sees Johnny Damon and Jason Varitek laughing it up at a restaurant after the game. The moral being: We care about this more than the people actually in the trenches. So, I’m not surprised that some horrible Oscar voter has such tone deaf thoughts on the race — according to that woman, Patricia Arquette is only going to win because she didn’t have plastic surgery — but more resigned to the fact that lots of people in this world are complete garbage. But this is about trophies, so let’s predict some. I agree with you about Boyhood. I think it’s done, and Birdman will win Best Picture. But I’m still holding out hope for Richard Linklater in the best director category. He’s worked with so many influential people: Ben Affleck, Matthew McConaughey… uh, Wiley Wiggins. I don’t know. I just think he’s got an edge in likability among actors over Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, and that should push him over.

Mike: If I had to bet a sizable amount of money, that money has to be on Birdman, just because it won all the guild awards and there’s some overlap, but I don’t think it’s a done deal. If they release the vote (which they don’t), I bet it will be close. And I agree, too, I think Richard Linklater will win Best Director. Everyone will be happy. Or everyone will be sad. I don’t know. You know, I really loved Birdman the first time I saw it, but I haven’t thought about it much since. But, to be fair, that could be fatigue. In recent years, by the time it wins, everyone always hates the Best Picture winner. Do you know what’s surprisingly re-watchable? Argo. And people hated Argo when it won simply because it won. If Lincoln would have won that year, people would feel the same way about that movie right now.

Chris: We’ve touched on this before, but it’s really the biggest thing I hate about “awards season.” Everyone just decides they’re done with the movies. It’s how all those hit pieces happen. I liked Birdman, too! It’s a good movie. You know what? All the nominees — American Sniper excluded — are good movies. This wound up being a good list of Best Picture contenders, but no one seems to have noticed because everyone hates everything. Before we (I) bog down in self pity and get-off-my-lawn platitudes, let’s move on to the actors. Patricia Arquette, J.K. Simmons and Julianne Moore are already locked in as winners. It’s Best Actor that still has a bit of fight left in it. Who do you like there?

Mike: I think Eddie Redmayne is the Best Actor, but Michael Keaton is the best story. And it’s weird, I’d be okay with either. I don’t have to take a side and get mad! If Redmayne wins, he deserves it. His performance as Stephen Hawking is the best thing anyone did this year. If Keaton wins, it’s a nice moment for an actor I’ve enjoyed almost my whole life. But, if I have to pick who I think will win, I think it’s going to be Eddie Redmayne.

Chris: How’s this for a monkey wrench: I think they both lose, and Bradley Cooper wins. It’s a little bit of vote splitting, and a little bit of Cooper being, beloved, a three-time nominee and in a movie that people have really responded to, whether or not we have, so it’s stupid to pick an upset and all, but that’s what I’m doing: Cooper for the win.

Mike: Good on you for not being boring. Hey, before we go, and based on what we saw this weekend at SNL‘s 40th Anniversary Show… remember when Eddie Murphy was going to host the Oscars?

Chris: Ha! It would have been a short ceremony, I guess. “Thank you. This is like high school.”

Mike: “Here are all the winners. What do you mean there’s still time left?” Actually, in hindsight, that might have been a pretty great ceremony if it was that short.

Chris: Eddie Murphy for the 2016 Oscars.

Chris Rosen is the managing editor of Huffington Post Entertainment. You can reach him on Twitter. Mike Ryan is the senior entertainment writer at Uproxx. You can contact him directly on Twitter.