For most of the season, we’ve been in the wilderness when it comes to NFL picks. Entering Week 9, morale was low but, on cue, we rolled to a 4-0-1 record that could’ve been 5-0 if not for an early filing date and the worst line on the Chargers-Falcons tilt. Getting back to principles was perhaps the key, and we’ll aim to do that again in Week 10.
Prior to unveiling this week’s card of five selections, let’s take a glance at the nine-week progress.
- Week 9: 4-0-1
- 2022 Season: 22-22-1
Come get these winners.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) over Seattle Seahawks
PSA: This game is in Germany and it’s an early kick on Sunday. Seattle had to travel a (very) long way from Arizona to Munich, and the Seahawks are on a four-game winning streak. Some of that is real, and Geno Smith is playing quite well, but Tampa’s passing game should be in for some positive regression in the coming days. The Bucs are also the better defensive team and we’re laying the small number.
Cleveland Browns (+3.5) over Miami Dolphins
This might be the ugliest bet of the week, but if you look under the hood, it makes more sense. Cleveland is coming off a bye and, quietly, the Browns have been very efficient on offense. Nick Chubb might be an alien and, in this matchup, Jacoby Brissett is capable of putting up points on Miami. The Dolphins are brutal against the pass (second-worst in passing DVOA) and the hype is a bit aggressive on Miami.
TEASER: Pittsburgh Steelers (+8) over New Orleans Saints and Denver Broncos (+9) over Tennessee Titans
We love a good Mike Tomlin wizardry spot, and this is one. We’re getting through a couple of key numbers on Pittsburgh, and following the value as a result. Denver is a little less clear-cut, but Tennessee’s offense is not exactly firing on all cylinders, even if Ryan Tannehill ends up returning. Denver is frisky on defense, coming off a bye, and prepared to at least keep this close.
Green Bay Packers (+4.5) over Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay is on a five-game (!) losing streak. That seems unthinkable, but the Packers are truly lost in the sauce. We’re buying the dip as a home underdog, and Dallas seems content to really grind things out with the running game and a fantastic defense. This might be a last stand situation for Green Bay, and the number is a bit too large.
Los Angeles Chargers (+7) over San Francisco 49ers
The Chargers were the only slight blemish on the card last week, but our principles continue to back Los Angeles on the road. It would be helpful if Justin Herbert had some healthy wide receivers, but this is too many points. Los Angeles will need to get a few stops, but we’re betting they can.
