Three weeks of the 2022 NFL season are in the books, but there is a lot of information still to be gleaned across the league. That is also true in this space, where we deliver a five-pack of against-the-spread and over-under selections each week. Despite a shaky Week 3, it has been a strong start with a 60 percent clip through 15 picks, but we will not rest on our laurels.
Before bringing the Week 4 slate, let’s take a quick glance at the progress.
- Week 3: 2-3
- 2022 Season: 9-6
Come get these winners.
Indianapolis Colts (-3) over Tennessee Titans
I still believe in the Colts. I do not believe in the Titans. There are some 3’s left in the market and I think that’s silly. We’ll pick one off and bank on the AFC South once again.
New York Jets (+3.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers
We usually like Mike Tomlin and the Steelers as underdogs. This is not that spot. Pittsburgh is now laying points with a largely putrid offense, and New York has Zach Wilson back for this game. I’ll admit that Wilson’s presence might add some potentially negative variance, but snagging more than a field goal here feels right.
Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos UNDER 45.5 points
These are two teams playing at a very, very slow pace. Denver is also quite filthy on defense and, while Las Vegas isn’t necessarily, the Broncos aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard these days. This should probably be 43.5 or 44 points and we’ll take the extra candy with the way both teams are operating in 2022.
Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) over Denver Broncos
Two plays on the same game! This is a kitchen sink game for the Raiders after a disastrous 0-3 start. The Broncos won a hideous football game with only 11 points a week ago, and Denver does have the better defense. With that said, Las Vegas is undervalued here at home with some desperation, and I’m still fading the Broncos offense.
Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers UNDER 21 points in the first half
It might be gross on Monday night and that is okay with us. San Francisco is playing incredibly slowly in the first half this season with a bottom-five pace, and the 49ers also have offensive line issues. Los Angeles isn’t exactly in a groove on offense and San Francisco is very, very frisky on the defensive side. The full-game number is down to 42.5 as I write this, and I prefer 21 in the first half.