NBA Summer League provided endless entertainment for basketball die-hards and plenty of content for media covering the event in wall-to-wall fashion. As usual, the quality of basketball was lacking on the whole but a deep and talented rookie class added intrigue to the proceedings and fans of the Los Angeles Lakers flooded Las Vegas to help turn the event into a full-blown spectacle in 2017.
Now that the event is over, though, the dregs of the offseason are fully upon us but the good folks at Bovada.lv provided some food for thought on Tuesday. The offshore sportsbook released Rookie of the Year odds for the 2017-2018 season and, while the top-tier draft picks were present and accounted for, there were a few surprises along the way.
With that as the backdrop, it is time to roll through the five best ROY contenders for next season in countdown order and, within the list, there will be a few handicapping nuggets for entertainment purposes only. First, though, two sleepers should be noted.
**All odds courtesy of Bovada.lv**
The Sleepers
- John Collins, PF/C, Atlanta Hawks (33/1) – Collins opened at 20/1 and actually dropped after a very impressive Summer League performance. Some of that has to do with the Hawks signing veterans to play in front of him and that throws a wrench in his ROY candidacy. Still, Collins is the type of player that could provide highlight-worthy plays and big-time counting stats if given the opportunity to shine in big minutes. He is a step down in terms of overall prospect status from the top tier but, sometimes, the numbers carry the day.
- Donovan Mitchell, G, Utah Jazz (Off the board) – Somehow, the first-year guard from Louisville doesn’t have odds on the board and that makes no sense whatsoever. Mitchell grabbed headlines as a dominant performer in Utah and, in two games in Las Vegas, the rangy backcourt player averaged an explosive 28 points per game. Mitchell looks polished and exceedingly talented, with the only caveat being that the Jazz will be a playoff contender and no playing time is guaranteed. If he cracks the rotation, though, look out.
- Malik Monk, SG, Charlotte Hornets (16/1) – If you like buckets, you like Malik Monk. However, he is flying under the radar after an ankle injury kept him away from Summer League and the odds reflect that longshot status. To be fair, Monk’s path to playing time isn’t exceedingly clear but, if Steve Clifford trusts him, Monk is going to score points.
5) Jayson Tatum (5/1)
Tatum went No. 3 overall and impressed quite a few people at Summer League. How, then, does he slide to No. 5 on this list? Well, the Boston Celtics are going to be (very) good this season and Tatum is not among their best players at the moment.
The former Duke standout brings a polished offensive game to the table that includes the ability to score at all levels of the floor. In Las Vegas, that was on full display as Tatum operated as the “go-to” player offensively but, back in Boston, that isn’t a realistic setup for the rookie. More than likely, Tatum will appear in a bench role and, actually, he isn’t guaranteed a rotation spot in any way based on the short-term goals of the Celtics. Is he better than Jaylen Brown from a prospect standpoint? Maybe, but Brown is the (much) better defender right now and that could lead to more playing time in 2017-2018.
This isn’t a knock on Tatum’s prospect status but it is going to be hard for him to win ROY with a reduced role in this particular crop.
4) Dennis Smith (3/1)
The hype on Dennis Smith Jr. is very real at this point and it makes sense. Before Summer League, Smith was a 16-1 longshot in ROY odds but he was dominant and flashy in leading the Mavericks in the desert. All told, Smith averaged 17 points, five rebounds, four assists and two steals per game in Las Vegas and he turned a lot of heads in doing so.
In terms of ROY upside, Smith could be the starting point guard from day one in Dallas and only Rick Carlisle stands in the way of the former NC State star racking up numbers in his first season. Carlisle’s reputation in dealing with point guards is well documented but, if Smith can navigate that mine field, his production will garner a lot of attention. Unfortunately, he’s no longer a value bet. I hope you guys picked him up at 16-1.
3) Ben Simmons (7/2)
Remember the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NBA Draft? Ben Simmons is back! If not for the presence of Markelle Fultz (we’ll get there), Simmons might be No. 1 on this list and there is a real possibility that he’s the better rookie in Philadelphia this season.
Still, there are still plenty of fit concerns for a player that doesn’t have a jump shot and, as of now, is playing point guard at 6’10 in the NBA. Can he score efficiently? What will his numbers look like? Can he even stay on the floor? The questions abound but, if things go right, Simmons can absolutely win this thing.
2) Markelle Fultz (9/1)
Since the start of his freshman season at Washington, Markelle Fultz was the No. 1 player on my draft board and I’m not backing off now. The top overall pick didn’t last long on the floor in Vegas due to injury and, if anything, that was probably a God-send for people that wanted to wager on him to win ROY honors.
The big question with Fultz is how he’ll coexist with Simmons and the possibility exists that the two could steal votes (and interest) from one another. If Brett Brown gives Fultz the keys, he will be the ROY front-runner from the start of the season, as he can score and accumulate assists based on his passing ability and overall profile. If Simmons is in charge, Fultz can still function and produce at a high level, but the counting stats probably won’t be there in the same volume as they would be otherwise.
Markelle Fultz landing in Philly may not have been his best outcome from a ROY standpoint but he’ll be very, very good and presents the best value on the board at 9-1.
1) Lonzo Ball (5/2)
Lonzo Ball encountered a (very) rough debut in Las Vegas but, since then, things have changed for the better. The former UCLA guard was named Summer League MVP after averaging 16.3 points, 9.3 assists, 7.7 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game and Ball even made national news with his choice of footwear throughout the process.
In terms of Rookie of the Year odds, Ball is the front-runner at this point and, frankly, that makes sense. In some respects, he isn’t the typical ROY choice in that Ball relies heavily on his basketball IQ and out-of-this-world passing ability to make an impact. With that said, he is perhaps the rookie that is most assured of playing time and usage, with the Lakers employing few backcourt players that could legitimately take touches away from the No. 2 overall pick.
The jury is out on whether Ball can be a full-fledged superstar, based largely on his ability to defend point guards and create for himself off the dribble. What isn’t up for debate, though, is that Lonzo Ball is “the guy” in the backcourt for the Lakers and he will have every chance to put up ROY-worthy numbers throughout the season while operating under the microscope of L.A. That’s not a bad recipe for “favorite” status in this particular category.
