With Kawhi Leonard now in Toronto and Marcus Smart back in Boston, almost every major offseason storyline in the NBA has reached its end, at least for this summer, which leaves us in the dead period for major news.
There’s still the matter of Clint Capela’s restricted free agency that must play out, but otherwise there won’t be much happening in the Association for a couple months. That leaves plenty of time for the mind to wander and start thinking of grand hypotheticals that likely will never happen, but are fascinating to imagine. That happened to me on Thursday as we learned the Warriors and Kings will play a preseason game in Seattle, which naturally sparks conversation about the league expanding back into Seattle and relaunching the Sonics.
Whenever there is an expansion team added to the league, that team gets to participate in an expansion draft in which they get to fill their rosters with players from other squads that are left unprotected. In the past, the NBA has allowed teams to protect eight players, but for the sake of a way more fun and intriguing hypothetical situation that creates maximum chaos, let’s imagine teams are only allowed to protect three players because the league wants to really shake things up and break up some of the budding super teams.
The NBA would likely not want to play with 31 teams, so along with Seattle they’ll also be expanding into Las Vegas in this scenario, shifting Memphis and New Orleans (rightfully) to the Eastern Conference. Under the rules that I have made up, the Sonics and, I don’t know let’s call them the Jacks (since Kings and Aces are already taken in the NBA and WNBA), can only select one player from each roster to bring onto their 15-man squad, meaning the most any one team can lose in the draft is two players, and they must have contracts that work under the salary cap.
With that in mind, let’s figure out which players would be off limits from each team if they can only protect three. Some decisions are easy, while others are almost impossible (see: Warriors, Celtics) which is the whole point of this ridiculous exercise.
Atlanta Hawks: John Collins, Taurean Prince, Trae Young
This one’s pretty easy. You keep your three most recent top picks and hope for some reason one of these teams wants Dennis Schröder or Kent Bazemore to take them off your books.
Boston Celtics: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kyrie Irving
If the teams have to fit their expansion draft picks inside the salary cap, then you force them to take on some huge salaries if they want to take two of your guys away. If Tatum or Brown are on the market they are almost assuredly getting picked, so those feel like auto-protects. Keeping Irving is simply a math play. I know he’s expiring, but he also makes $20 million this year compared to $31 million and $29 million for Hayward and Horford respectively. Irving’s a cost-effective superstar right now and he’d likely get taken. Horford’s age and contract likely mean he won’t get picked up and Hayward has plenty of questions regarding his ankle that might spook teams off of using nearly a third of their cap space on him.
Brooklyn Nets: D’Angelo Russell, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jarrett Allen
Again, you protect your good young players if you’re Brooklyn.
Chicago Bulls: Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr., Jabari Parker
They clearly like Jabari and he’ll be a draw in his hometown. You keep your last two top picks and bank on neither of these teams wanting to bring in LaVine at $78 million.
Charlotte Hornets: Miles Bridges, Kemba Walker, Malik Monk
Again, keep your picks and keep your most valuable trade asset and hope a team wants one of your bigger contracts.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Kevin Love, Collin Sexton, Cedi Osman
Copy-paste from the Hornets.
Dallas Mavericks: Luka Doncic, Dennis Smith Jr, Dirk Nowitzki
Same deal with the two top young guys, but add in the wrinkle of, if you’re Dallas, you cannot allow for the possibility of another team taking Dirk, no matter how unlikely. If someone wants Harry B, then godspeed to them. Dirk’s done too much and sacrificed too much to not protect him here.
Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Gary Harris
This one’s pretty easy. You might lose Michael Porter Jr., but Harris and Murray are too valuable and on too good of deals. Jokic is a no-brainer.
Detroit Pistons: Andre Drummond, Blake Griffin, Luke Kennard
The Pistons don’t have much in the way of young assets to protect, so you ride with your two big guys and stick with Kennard.
Golden State Warriors: Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green
This is the entire reason I began this exercise, because I wanted to know what member of the Warriors would be the odd man out. Curry is the lock of all locks to be protected, but there are arguments to be made for and against the other three. Klay’s contract expires next year and he’ll be looking for a big deal, but what he does as a shooter and defender (all while being happy to take a backseat at times) makes him crucial. I think he stays.
That leaves a decision between Green and Durant. KD is a better player, but on another 1+1 there are questions about how long he’ll stay in the Bay anyways. Green is the emotional motor of the Warriors and their catalyst on defense, and it’s hard to imagine them being this Warriors team without him. Maybe, just maybe, Durant would also opt to be the odd man out so he could return to Seattle and restart the franchise that drafted him. He doesn’t seem like the sentimental type, but anything is possible.
Houston Rockets: James Harden, Chris Paul, Clint Capela
They’re going to get a Capela deal done, it’s a matter of when and how much. Once that’s done, I have to assume this trio would be locked in. You could talk me into leaving Paul out and saving P.J. Tucker and dare someone to take on that massive contract as Paul ages, but I can’t see them doing that.
Indiana Pacers: Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner, Aaron Holiday
Oladipo and Turner are locks. If the plan is for Holiday to be the point guard of the future I think to take a chance on Sabonis getting picked up.
Los Angeles Clippers: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tobias Harris, Jerome Robinson
I’m not a Robinson guy, but L.A. clearly is and they’ll protect their top two picks from this year. The rest of the roster is very strange and I could see them choosing Lou Williams over Harris, but Harris was the centerpiece (along with the pick) of the Griffin trade and to keep his Bird Rights for next season I think is important given how many other players are UFAs.
Los Angeles Lakers: LeBron James, Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball
Another sneaky interesting team in this scenario is the Lakers. LeBron and Ingram are locks, and while I don’t think it should be too tough a choice between Ball and Kuzma, they might make it more difficult than I would.
Memphis Grizzlies: Jaren Jackson Jr., Kyle Anderson, Jevon Carter
If someone wants either Conley or Gasol’s contracts, more power to them. P.S., I love Jevon Carter’s game and he’s perfect in Memphis.
Miami Heat: Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic, Josh Richardson
A chance for Miami to get out from a contract or two! Maybe. It’s possible they’d sub Justise Winslow in for Dragic here and just hope Seattle or Vegas help their cap sheet by taking any of their big deals. In any case, Miami is hoping they lose a player or two in this imaginary draft.
Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Thon Maker
The first two are really easy decisions, and from there Maker’s probably the most likely to be picked if he’s on the board. He’s still a tantalizing prospect and I’d protect him over Brogdon even though Brogdon’s a more steady player.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Karl-Anthony Towns, Jimmy Butler, Josh Okogie
If Seattle or Vegas want to take on that Wiggins contract I’m thrilled if I’m Minnesota. Butler might be a bit disgruntled, but he’s also going to be your best trade asset at the deadline (unless they’re dumb enough to deal Towns). Knowing Thibs he’d probably actually protect Butler, Derrick Rose, and Taj Gibson.
New Orleans Pelicans: Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday, Julius Randle
This one’s pretty straight forward. Keep your two best players (and Randle might just be your third).
New York Knicks: Kristaps Porzingis, Kevin Knox, Frank Ntilikina
Probably the easiest trio to make a decision on in the entire league.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Steven Adams
You could maybe talk me into Roberson over Adams here, given how important we saw Roberson’s defense is to the Thunder and his contract is more cost-effective, but Adams is a beast and his defensive impact can’t be forgotten either.
Orlando Magic: Aaron Gordon, Mo Bamba, Jonathan Isaac
Keep your (very) Big Three and move on.
Philadelphia 76ers: Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz
Another somewhat interesting one for the third spot, but Philly clearly still believes in Fultz and I can’t imagine they’d pick Saric over him in this scenario (even though it almost assuredly means they lose Dario).
Phoenix Suns: Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Josh Jackson
Another fairly straight forward decision here. There’s probably a subset of NBA Twitter that will call for Mikal Bridges over Jackson, but I don’t think the Suns are in that category.
Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Al-Farouq Aminu
If they want to shake up their backcourt, they’ll do so via a trade because you can’t afford to lose one of those guys for nothing. After that, Aminu is the best value contract they have and anyone else wouldn’t hurt too much to lose.
Sacramento Kings: De’Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley III, Harry Giles
They’re definitely keeping their last two top picks, and I’m suddenly a believer in Harry Giles again.
San Antonio Spurs: DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Dejounte Murray
The Spurs clearly want to continue competing, and for that reason they’d protect DeRozan and Aldridge. Murray is their point guard of the future so they’d keep him as well. Lonnie Walker just misses the cut.
Toronto Raptors: Kawhi Leonard, OG Anunoby, Fred Van Vleet
If someone wants Lowry at $64.5 million over the next two years, they can have him. The Raptors will protect their newest acquisition and two of their young key role players, although you could argue who the third man is between Van Vleet, Pascal Siakam, Norman Powell, and Delon Wright.
Utah Jazz: Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles
I don’t think this one’s all that difficult either. You keep the ROY runner-up, the DPOY, and the great value of Ingles’ descending deal.
Washington Wizards: Bradley Beal, John Wall, Otto Porter Jr.
The Wizards are a really interesting case here as well. Do you leave Wall off your protected list because his massive extension kicks in next season and if a team takes that then you at least get some operating budget to shake things up? Do you keep your top three guys and keep plugging ahead? I think they choose the latter simply because they probably believe that in a LeBron-less East this roster has a chance.
