We’re only a few days away from the start of the 2018-19 NBA season, which means it’s time to make some predictions on what’s going to go down. To start, our staff looked at the myriad of individual awards that the league will hand out at the end of the year, and gave their picks for Most Improved Player, Coach of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, and Most Valuable Player.
Coach of the Year
Quin Snyder (Kalland, Zavagno, Rowland)
It is incredibly difficult to project Coach of the Year, particularly due to the narrative basis of the award. However, Snyder is among the league’s best on the bench and the Jazz have a path to the No. 2 seed that would allow him to win it. — BR
Brad Stevens (Cooper, Edwards, Siegel)
Brad Stevens is the fashionable choice in any discussion of the NBA’s best coaches. He probably should’ve won it last season, so he’ll get heavy consideration this year, especially if the Celtics do as expected and dominate the East. Quin Snyder is a great sleeper choice here, too. — JC
Mike Budenholzer (Barnewall, Duncan)
Mike Budenholzer will win Coach of The Year thanks to the jump of Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks as a whole becoming a larger force in the East. — CB
Gregg Popovich (DiFilippo)
The expectations aren’t especially high for the Spurs this year following the Kawhi Leonard-for-DeMar DeRozan trade, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili leaving town, and Dejounte Murray’s season-ending injury. I have no idea what to expect of the Spurs, but I do know that as long as they don’t bottom out, Pop is going to deserve some Coach of the Year votes. Plus if it turns out this is, indeed, his final season, well, let’s just say I think voters would be kind to him in that event.
Most Improved Player
Terry Rozier (Jeff Siegel)
The buzz is already there based on how he finished last season. I don’t know if I actually believe this or if I’m just writing it to make Brad angry.
Jamal Murray (Chris Barnewall)
The Nuggets NEED a big season out of Jamal Murray if they’re going to finally make the playoffs and I think they’re going to get it. He’s ready to make that star jump that we’ve seen plenty of players make en route to winning this award.
Khris Middleton (Robby Kalland)
This award usually goes to the guy that actually made the leap the year before but no one really caught onto until now (not the case last year, but just typically). I’m a believer in the Bucks under Mike Budenholzer and while all the talk is understandably about how Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to benefit from an offense that has better flow and spacing, Middleton won’t be far behind as a beneficiary. He had an awful start from three-point range last year, and if he returns to being a 40 percent shooter from deep in an offense that will take a lot more threes this year, he’ll get some deserved All-Star buzz in the East, which will lead to MIP votes.
Devin Booker (Konata Edwards)
I think with the functional veteran players out in Phoenix that we can see Booker take a leap this season. The hand injury might give you pause, but I believe in his talent and think he can get there this season.
Spencer Dinwiddie (Jamie Cooper)
He was a finalist for this award last season, and I think he has another big leap ahead of him this season. He should also get plenty of opportunities to showcase his talent in Brooklyn as the team tries to figure out where they’re headed in the future and who their core is.
Markelle Fultz (Brad Rowland)
Nothing is worse than the Most Improved Player award, particularly because no one can agree on a criteria. With that said, I’ll take Markelle Fultz. The narrative will be there and, considering his talent and the prominence of the Sixers, he has a clear path to winning the award if and when he plays well.
Josh Richardson (Nekias Duncan)
This may be a little bias creeping in, but I’m going to throw Josh Richardson’s name in the ring. He’s already an elite defender and a plus-shooter. He made very real progress as a shot creator last year, and has spent the summer trying to refine his game as a scorer and passer. There’s another leap to be made there, whether that’s in Miami or (gulp) Minnesota.
Taurean Prince (Mike Zavagno)
I have absolutely no idea what criteria will carry the day for this award in any given season. That said, I’m going to travel off the beaten path and toss Taurean Prince out there. I have been impressed with his passing ability in the preseason and he seemed to find something from beyond the arc after the All-Star break. Luckily, very few people were watching the tanking Hawks so his “breakout” may still be coming.
Mario Hezonja (Bill DiFilippo)
I picked Mario Hezonja last year and he did not win it. However, because I (like everyone) really hate the Most Improved Player award due to the fact that it’s such a crapshoot, give me Hezonja again. He showed flashes of the talent he possesses during his final season in Orlando, is only 23, and is getting a fresh start on a New York team that doesn’t really have a top dog with Kristaps Porzingis sidelined. Be sure to read this again next year when I, uh, pick Mario Hezonja again.
Sixth Man of the Year
J.J. Redick (Barnewall, Kalland, Edwards, DiFilippo)
J.J. Redick is apparently going to come off the bench for the 76ers this year, but still play a starter level role. That’s just a recipe for Sixth Man of the Year success. — CB
Lou Williams (Cooper)
With Jamal Crawford entering the twilight of his career, Sweet Lou has seized the crown as the perennial favorite for this award.
Julius Randle (Rowland)
This is an off-the-radar pick and not one that is necessarily likely to come to fruition. Still, Randle will check the statistical boxes that Sixth Man voters look for and, eventually, someone other than Lou Williams and Jamal Crawford has to win.
Isaiah Thomas (Duncan)
Dwyane W … okay, I’m kidding. If we’re mostly in agreement that a high-volume scorer off the bench is going to win this thing, how about Isaiah Thomas? He has a massive chip on his shoulder. He’s reunited with Mike Malone, and will have the luxury of playing alongside Nikola Jokic, the best dribble handoff big man in the league. If we know anything about IT, it’s that he thrives in those situations. Add in Denver’s pace, and him averaging something like 18 points off the bench with good shooting splits wouldn’t be a shock.
Tyreke Evans (Zavagno)
After signing with the Pacers this offseason, Evans is in a perfect spot to put up numbers off the bench. As the second-best creator on the team behind Victor Oladipo, expect Evans to have the ball in his hands a great deal. If he can continue his success from deep (40 percent on 5.5 attempts per game last year), he is primed for a big season.
Defensive Player of the Year
Rudy Gobert (Siegel, Kalland, Rowland)
The Jazz should post the league’s best defensive rating during the regular season and Gobert is the biggest reason for that. It would be fair to note that Draymond Green is the best defensive player in the league when he’s dialed in but, once again, the Warriors won’t have to give full effort over 82 games and Gobert’s defensive impact is tremendous on a nightly basis. — BR
Kawhi Leonard (Barnewall, DiFilippo)
If Leonard really is healthy then everybody will remember very quickly why he is one of the scariest defensive players in the NBA. — CB
Draymond Green (Edwards)
Have you heard that Draymond was second-team All-Defense last season? He’ll probably be screaming that all year and use it as motivation to win Defensive Player of the Year for the second time, spearheading one of the NBA’s stingiest defenses.
Kevin Durant (Cooper)
He’s made enormous strides as a defender the past couple of years with his shot-blocking and ability to defend multiple positions. Plus, he’s expressed his discontent about not being considered for the award, so I think voters will take notice and KD will be more motivated than ever to make it happen.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Duncan)
Even though the Bucks were #NotGreat defensively last year (19th in defensive rating), they had a 105.6 defensive rating with Giannis on the court, a mark on par with the Houston Rockets. They were nearly five points worse with Giannis on the bench. If Milwaukee creeps up near or in the top ten with a more conservative scheme, why not? He gets two steals and two blocks almost by accident, and can legitimately defend all five positions in a pinch.
Joel Embiid (Zavagno)
If Embiid didn’t suffer an orbital fracture, he would have been step-for-step with Gobert for Defensive Player of the Year last season. Gobert enters as the favorite here, but I think Embiid can raise his game to another level this season.
Rookie of the Year
Luka Doncic (Edwards, Barnewall, Cooper, Rowland, DiFilippo)
Ayton might even be a safer pick given his box score numbers but Doncic does have the benefit of playing on a better team and making a more direct impact on winning. A few years ago, Ayton would’ve been the only choice but, with a more open-minded voting body, the better player gets the nod. — BR
The basketball world hasn’t been this excited about a European prospect since I don’t know when. He should get plenty of opportunities to shine in Dallas on a team that will probably be better than we think. — JC
Deandre Ayton (Siegel, Kalland, Duncan, Zavagno)
It’s boring because he was the top pick, but Deandre Ayton has all the makings of a Rookie of the Year winner. The holes in his game defensively don’t hurt him with awards voters and he’ll put up the best counting stats with the Suns feeding him game in and game out. — JS
Historically speaking, Rookie of the Year is a numbers-based award and no player is primed to put up bigger counting stats than Ayton. With opportunities aplenty, he should be a walking double-double for a struggling Suns squad. That should be enough to grab the honors (even if he isn’t the best rookie). — MZ
Most Valuable Player
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Siegel, Kalland, Cooper, Duncan)
I’m not so sure he’ll see a significant uptick in stats this year, but the Bucks should look much better under Mike Budenholzer and if he has a marginally better season individually for a good Bucks team I think he’ll win. You have to remember that people love Giannis and there’s almost a desire for him to be great around the league. If he does that and the Bucks are actually good and not frustratingly mediocre, I think he’ll pick up that trophy. — RK
Anthony Davis (Barnewall, Rowland, DiFilippo)
I am a little worried about whether Davis can stay healthy for 82 games, but even if he only misses a few nights (as he has the last two years, both in which he’d played 75 games), I think he’ll put up the kind of crazy numbers that win him MVP. Plus I think, with the MVP award, so much of it is people viewing it as a player’s “time,” and I think there’s been enough chatter around Davis taking his game to the next level that it’s his time to get honored (this is also why I agonized over picking him or Antetokounmpo). If he averages something like 30+ points, double-digit rebounds, and is among the league leaders in blocks (which he can do!), this is his award for the taking, barring the Pelicans missing the playoffs by more than a game or three. — BD
Kyrie Irving (Edwards)
This feels like a year where Kyrie stays healthy for 60-ish games, is the best player on the team with the most wins, and has a ridiculous stat line. I think LeBron doesn’t have the shooting to help him stay afloat out there, while all the Warriors guys are gonna split votes.
LeBron James (Zavagno)
I can’t even be accused of being a homer for this one. What better narrative than the best player on the planet carrying the Lakers back to the Playoffs? The Lakers are playing at a breakneck 121 possession pace with LeBron on the floor in the preseason and he’s turning in some gaudy stat lines. If there were ever a season for him to put the fifth notch in the belt, why not this one?
