Over the weekend, the Philadelphia 76ers took a big swing in acquiring Jimmy Butler from the Minnesota Timberwolves. As you may expect given that the Sixers were the team acquiring a superstar, most of the focus in the aftermath of the deal was on Philadelphia’s future, with some interesting analysis across the NBA with regard to how the Wolves will move forward in a post-Butler world. However, there is another intriguing domino for the Sixers and it comes with a player that seemingly wasn’t involved in any part of the trade discussions.
Former No. 1 overall pick Markelle Fultz has been a topic of conversation throughout the season. The talented guard operated in the starting lineup at the outset, with part of the decision to deploy him centered on the continued goal to build his confidence. After all, much has been made of Fultz’s bizarre journey since seemingly losing the plot of his jump shot and, without it, the former Washington star simply doesn’t possess the upside of a player typically associated with the No. 1 overall selection.
On Monday evening, things may have reached a new crescendo with another hitch apparently added to Fultz’s stroke (at least at the free throw line) and that renewed a discussion that should have been taking place in the immediate aftermath of the Butler deal.
This is worse than we have ever seen Fultz's free throw form look. pic.twitter.com/FhCYpNpd5b
— Kyle Neubeck (@KyleNeubeck) November 13, 2018
In short, it is probably time for the Sixers and Fultz to part ways.
Even when ignoring the ongoing nature of Fultz’s attempt to regain the confidence needed to facilitate a functional NBA jumper, his current abilities don’t suit what the suddenly urgent Sixers want to accomplish in the short term. Granted, virtually everyone expects Butler to re-sign in Philadelphia in July but, for now, he is operating on an expiring contract and the Sixers undoubtedly envision legitimate title contention this season after adding a top tier player to the mix.
There are already fit concerns in Philadelphia, with Butler not possessing an elite jump shot from the perimeter and the tricky nature of integrating Ben Simmons with a new, ball-dominant partner on the perimeter. Beyond that, the Sixers have a monster in Joel Embiid on the interior but the team doesn’t possess an overflowing amount of shooting aside from J.J. Redick and rookie Landry Shamet. Philadelphia does have some intriguing supporting pieces, including floor-spacing big man Mike Muscala and incumbent backup point guard T.J. McConnell, but depth is certainly not a strength for the team in the short term, even with a chance to add players via trade or on the buyout market.
With Fultz, the Sixers have a very talented player but one that doesn’t fit with his current constraints. The Fultz-Simmons duo has been scrutinized heavily in the early going and it isn’t a situation in which either player will be maximized when the other is on the floor at the same time. Now, adding Butler to the mix removes even more utility from Fultz, as the newly acquired wing can serve as a primary initiator when Simmons is off the floor.
From a salary cap standpoint, Fultz also isn’t bringing value and that could also be a significant factor. Because of the league’s new rookie-scale contract dynamics, the former No. 1 pick is already making $8.3 million this season and Fultz is guaranteed more than $9.7 million for the 2019-20 season. Then, Fultz will be facing a fourth-year team option that would pay him almost $12.3 million in 2020-21 and, to put it plainly, the Sixers cannot afford to assign that kind of resource to a player in a niche role moving forward.
There are other dynamics in play, including the fact that Fultz’s seemingly fragile confidence could be negatively influenced by the presence of Butler and even more pressure on his every move as the team pursues a title. That is, of course, something that is difficult to discern from the outside but, when taking everything into account, the best course of action seems to involve a trade.
With that as the backdrop, it would be beneficial for Fultz to get a fresh start and the Sixers would benefit (at least in the near term) from a player that is better suited to contribute immediately. Attempting to gauge Fultz’s value could be very difficult, though, and that is where things get even trickier.
What teams would be looking to take a chance on Fultz? What could Philadelphia reasonably command for a player with the kind of obvious flaws that Fultz presents? With the NBA’s rules on matching salary in trade, what kind of money can/would the Sixers take back and, if they pull the trigger, how do they “sell” a deal that involves a No. 1 overall pick from less than 24 months ago?
The questions are endless but, with that said, a deal still makes sense for all sides. There are backcourt-depleted teams in the league that would absolutely benefit from a “flier” in Fultz, especially if they are not trying to compete immediately. After all, Fultz was the near-consensus No. 1 overall pick in 2017 and the talents that made him intriguing are still present, aside from the jump shot. In fact, Fultz has a path to being a quality NBA player even without a high-end jumper but, for that to manifest, he would need to be in a much friendlier atmosphere when it comes to player development and patience, which is something he certainly won’t find in the midst of an active title pursuit.
On the Philly side, adding a pure role player that can space the floor and/or defend would unquestionably help the team now. Still, adding a veteran in that mold, on its own, would be a tough sell from an optics standpoint and the organization must decide what Fultz’s value should be on the open market. That is an extremely difficult question to parse but, even if the Sixers want a low-ceiling acquisition in exchange for the once-prized guard, Philadelphia would be wise to seek something in a future-facing manner, whether it be a recently drafted player on a cheap contract or draft capital to be used down the line.
With every passing day, the Fultz situation becomes more challenging and, with more and more (mostly negative) film in existence of Fultz in the NBA, his value may be diminishing. The stars seem to be aligning for a trade but, to put it frankly, this might be the most difficult case of trade value assessment in the recent history of the NBA and no one (especially first-year GM Elton Brand) can be fully comfortable when even discussing the framework of a deal involving Markelle Fultz.
