With the widespread legalization of sports betting and the race to add new users on a daily and weekly basis, sportsbooks are much more invested in the prop market than ever before. That includes full slates of prop offerings every night in the basketball and baseball worlds, with expanded slates for primetime NFL and college football action. Still, nothing brings attention to prop bets like the Super Bowl, and this year’s showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles is a heavyweight battle by any description.
In addition to our usual “winners” column (and with some crossover), it’s time to roll out ten favorite prop bets for the big game. Keep in mind that it is always the right choice to shop across different books in search of the best line and, even on the night of the Super Bowl, it’s okay to pass on a less than desirable number.
Chiefs and Eagles combine for UNDER 5.5 sacks — DraftKings
There is a lot of buzz about both pass rushes, and with good reason. Philadelphia has a historic mark with more than 70 sacks this season, and Kansas City was a top-three team in sacks. As such, this number is inflated. Then, Patrick Mahomes is (very) adept at avoiding sacks, and Hurts can get us home on the other side behind two quality offensive lines.
Dallas Goedert longest reception OVER 18.5 yards — FanDuel
From a trend standpoint, Goedert beat this more than half the time in the regular season, and I’m a fan of his YAC ability. Kansas City doesn’t always have best tackling room and, crucially, this is the best number I’ve seen in the market as of Thursday evening.
Kadarius Toney Over 25.5 receiving yards — PointsBet
This is a talent bet more than anything. Toney was an early exit from the AFC title game with injury, but without Mecole Hardman to stretch things out with speed, Toney is important here. One catch could do it, and this is the best number available in the market.
Patrick Mahomes Under 10.5 yards on his longest rush — FanDuel
Oddly enough, I also like Mahomes over 4.5 rushing attempts. There will be times where he’s given running lanes, and because it’s the Super Bowl, he will take them on occasion. However, he’s also still dealing with his ankle injury and he will be getting down as soon as he can on scrambles. We’ll just hope the Eagles don’t part the seas completely and give him an 11-yard window where no one’s going to hit him.
Isiah Pacheco Over 15.5 receiving yards — DraftKings
The Chiefs are going to have to pass the ball, but they don’t have a lot of great receiving depth. Picking who, beyond Travis Kelce, is going to have a big game for the Chiefs has been a very difficult task this year because Mahomes spends so much time spreading the ball around, but Pacheco’s become their best receiving threat out of the backfield and I’d expect him to get a few targets to try and pick this up.
Kenneth Gainwell Over 19.5 rushing yards — DraftKings
Gainwell had a massive game last week and I’m not afraid to go back to the well. He’s still not at the top of the list of guys you’re trying to take away defensively if you are the Chiefs, and we know the Eagles are going to want to establish some form of rushing attack. He’s great bouncing it outside and that means he’ll always be one missed assignment on the edge from picking up most of this total on one carry.
Jake Elliott Under 7.5 points — FanDuel
The Eagles don’t like kicking field goals. If they have a fourth and short in plus territory they usually go for it (and for good reason with Hurts as an elite rushing threat at QB), which takes away Elliott’s opportunities to tack on three. You’re obviously fading a shootout with this bet, but it’s also not out of character for an occasional two-point try from the Eagles to help you out.
Over 41.5 combined first downs — FanDuel
These are two very good offenses, but what the defenses on both sides are going to be most concerned with is avoiding giving up big plays. As such, I see there being plenty of first downs and both teams being forced to move it down the field methodically rather than in massive chunks, which bodes well for the over on first downs.
Patrick Mahomes Alternate Over 350 passing yards — FanDuel
This is +310 at FanDuel and given how good Philadelphia’s defensive front is, there’s a decent chance the Chiefs spend much of this game throwing the ball just out of necessity. Mahomes is capable of outrageous production, even with a wide receiving corps that’s less than ideal, and the nice thing about this bet is, it could come through in a win or a loss. The one thing you’re fading here is a Chiefs blowout, but any other outcome could see Mahomes really putting the ball up.
Kenneth Gainwell Receptions (-0.5) vs. Manchester United Goals vs. Leeds (12/2) — DraftKings
We can’t do a Super Bowl props column without having a disgusting cross-sport prop on the board. I’m high on Gainwell props in general, as he’s been an increasingly large part of the gameplan for Philly. I also like this as value from a handicapping perspective, as you’re starting with the assumption basically sets the number at 2.5 receptions, given Man U hasn’t scored 3 goals in a Premier League game in a month and just had a 2-2 draw with Leeds earlier this week. It’s possible we get an even better number (or worse, of course) and so I’ll take my chances with Kenneth hopefully being involved in the passing game once again.
