Nearly two weeks have passed since the last time there was an NFL game and, after Sunday, months will pass before there will be another NFL game. That means, of course, that the Super Bowl is here, and Super Bowl LIX brings an intriguing matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. There is also an angle that the matchup is at least somewhat disappointing for fans outside of Kansas City and Philadelphia, though, as the Buffalo Bills (or even the Baltimore Ravens, Washington Commanders, etc.) would have brought new blood to the game itself. On the flip side, much of the country seems to be galvanized against the big, bad Chiefs as they aim for a third straight title, and that can bring some juice to the festivities.
In this space, we hand out selections each week and, simply put, the 2024-25 season was our worst since the column debuted nearly a decade ago. Things have steadied a bit down the stretch and into the playoffs, but you would’ve been better off fading us beginning in Week 1, which isn’t a tremendous reality. Still, we’ve enjoyed success lately, and Super Bowl LIX brings a new slate of opportunities.
In fact, we’re going with more than the usual five selections this week, simply because the prop board is overflowing. Alas, the winners will be coming soon, but first, a check-in.
- Championship Sunday: 2-3
- 2024-25 Season: 45-58-2
Come get these winners.
Noah Gray UNDER 1.5 receptions — DraftKings
The Chiefs have just stopped throwing the ball to Gray. He has six targets total in the last five games, including four games with one target or fewer. It seems to coincide with Kansas City’s receiving corps, namely Hollywood Brown, getting healthier, but it would be a mild surprise if Gray got more than one target, much less caught more than one pass.
AJ Brown OVER 69.5 receiving yards — FanDuel
Kansas City’s defense is stingy, but the Chiefs tend to play more man-to-man in the playoffs, including this season. Brown absolutely dominates man-to-man looks, and he also hit this number in 8 of 13 regular season games this year. He’ll be a heavy focus and, as you will see more below, I think the Eagles will be throwing more often than some people believe.
Isiah Pacheco OVER 20.5 rushing yards — BetRivers
Simply put, I’m betting that the split of carries is a lot more even for the Chiefs between Pachecho and Kareem Hunt than it was last week. And, even if it isn’t, Pacheco is at least capable of breaking one for double-digit yards to help us get there. The extra week to prepare should give him a little more time to get healthy as well.
Kansas City Chiefs shortest punt OVER 40.5 yards– DraftKings
55 of Matt Araiza’s 61 punts were at least 40 yards this season. Obviously, we would lose on exactly 40, but three of those six punts were actually in the same game amid bad weather that will not be a factor in New Orleans. Also, the Chiefs are unlikely to be punting from across midfield very often, helping us avoid some of the “pooch punt” scenarios that could make this lose. If the Chiefs never punt (which is possible), this would be a push, but I like it a lot.
Jalen Hurts OVER 27.5 pass attempts — Widely Available
One of my overarching reads on this game is that Philadelphia’s passing props are too low. The Eagles played with the lead so often this season that the numbers are out of whack, and I think they will need to throw it early and often.
Kansas City Chiefs OVER 2.5 sacks– DraftKings
Jalen Hurts is not afraid to take a sack, and the Chiefs are effective in creating them. Spags is a maniac who will bring pressure from anywhere, and what pushes this over the top is that Hurts is still not 100 percent from a health standpoint. That likely leads to more attempts to create from the pocket and, by proxy, more sack opportunities.
Travis Kelce OVER 60.5 receiving yards — FanDuel, BetRivers
I’m not going to tell you that this is the most sophisticated handicap, but Travis Kelce has been over this number in 14 of his last 15 playoff games. Granted, the one that he missed was quite literally the last game the Chiefs played, but I’m going back to the well.
Saquon Barkley UNDER 112.5 rushing yards — Widely Available
Barkley has been amazing this season, but this number is just too high. The Chiefs have an active streak of 18 straight games without allowing an individual 100-yard rusher, and Kansas City has never allowed a player to rush for 100 yards in a playoff game under Spags. Barkley is an alien, which I fully understand, but this is a principle play on the under.
Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 24 points in the first half — Caesars
I don’t love the total here at all, but I like the first half more than the full game. Super Bowls tend to get off to slow starts historically, and that has been the case when they’ve involved the Chiefs. There might be a feeling-out process. I trust both defenses. And the fireworks are more likely to come after the break, if they do arrive.
Kansas City Chiefs (-1) over Philadelphia Eagles — Caesars, BetRivers, ESPNBet
Everything logical points to the Eagles, and I understand that. They have the better roster from No. 2 through No. 53. They’re loaded. The metrics like Philadelphia more, too. But I will not be betting against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid in the Super Bowl. No thank you.
