With the All-Star break behind us, we can fully shift our attention to the playoff race in the NBA. There are breakaways at the top in both conferences, but the battle for playoff position behind those teams is going to be incredibly fierce. Further down the standings, there is a West Play-In battle that should be entertaining and an East Play-In race where someone is going to accidentally make it in as the 10-seed.
As we get set to watch all of those battles unfold, we decided to take a look at what tier each team belongs in as the NBA season reaches its stretch run.
S-Tier: Thunder, Cavs, Celtics
There are three teams that have crossed the 40-win mark so far, and right now I don’t think there’s much debate about who are the three best teams in the league. The Celtics have seemingly shaken out of their midseason funk and look as dangerous as ever, while the Thunder and Cavs just will not break stride at the top of the East and West. Those two just keep ripping off wins at a historic rate, but I think most fans are waiting until May to completely believe they’re as good as they’ve looked this regular season.
A-Tier: Nuggets, Knicks, Grizzlies, Lakers
The Nuggets feel like the biggest threat of this group right now, as Jamal Murray looks like the guy we saw back in 2023 and Nikola Jokic continues to have his best season. That said, they just haven’t reached that top level as consistently as those teams in the top tier and lack the same level of depth. As everyone discussed this week after another drubbing at the hands of the Celtics, the Knicks just have not been able to hang with those top three teams this season. They look great against everyone else, but do not seem to have the gear necessary to reach that elite tier.
Memphis has had its ups and downs in February, and the same question that’s bothered them for more than a decade (can they make enough shots?) continues to pop up in big games. The Lakers are the league’s hottest team right now and they dismantled Denver this week in the first game that Luka Doncic looked like himself since arriving in L.A. There’s a real question about whether the defense holds up in the playoffs without a great center option, but when you have Luka and LeBron, you will have a chance against anyone.
B-Tier: Rockets, Warriors, Clippers, Pacers, Bucks, Pistons, Timberwolves
Houston has some rough losses in February (Nets x2 and Jazz) and you wonder if they’ve hit a bit of a wall. They beat a lot of teams early in the season by sheer effort, especially with their defensive intensity, and we’ll have to see if they can find that level again to make sure they lock up a playoff spot in the West. The Clippers and Wolves have likewise just been treading water in the 6 and 7 spots in the West, which has allowed Houston to stay 4.5 up for fifth, but that’s opened the door for a hot team like Golden State to start reeling them in. Since acquiring Jimmy Butler, the Warriors look fantastic and are a team no one is really excited to face right now, and they’re now just 1.5 games back of L.A. for that coveted sixth spot in the West.
Meanwhile in the East, there’s a Central Division battle for the 4-5-6 seeds. All three teams have won at least three straight and are only separated by two games. Indiana got off to a slow start to the year, but Tyrese Haliburton has returned to form to give them quite the 1-2 punch with Pascal Siakam and they look to be finding a rhythm at a good time of year. Milwaukee navigated through Giannis’ absence and is hanging just a half-game behind Indiana. The Bucks are winners of four straight and while they haven’t been the contender-level team they hoped to be, they do seem to be finding something after the Kyle Kuzma trade. Then there’s Detroit, riding a 6-game winning streak thanks to some absolutely brilliant play by Cade Cunningham. He’s helped them build some breathing room for that last playoff spot in the East as the Pistons are starting to believe they belong.
C-Tier: Mavericks, Kings
The Mavs have been battling admirably through their frontcourt injuries, but it’s an uphill fight with how thin they are at center. That said, if they can get at least two of Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford, and Dereck Lively II healthy (and, crucially, keep them healthy), they would have a roster capable of making a late push and put some real pressure on the Clippers and Wolves. The Kings have been treading water since their busy trade deadline — namely moving De’Aaron Fox and acquiring Zach LaVine — and it’s hard to see them really challenging for that 7/8 spot in the West. The best thing going for Sacramento at the moment is that Phoenix can’t seem to get it together and has fallen to two games back of the Kings in the 10-seed.
Southeast Tier: Magic, Hawks, Heat
In the East, the Play-In race will be defined by the battle for the Southeast divisional crown in what can only be described as a mid-off. These teams are not as good as Sacramento or Dallas, so it felt disrespectful to put them together, but they’re also better than the teams in the D-Tier, so here we have the Southeast Tier. The Magic should be the best team of the group, but something is just off in Orlando this year even after getting Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero back from injury. That’s allowed the Heat and Hawks to hang around despite losing talent at the trade deadline and getting ready to limp to the finish line of the regular season. It’s an indictment of the rest of the East that both of those teams are locks for the Play-In and one of them is likely going to play in an actual playoff series.
:( Tier: Spurs
The news about Victor Wembanyama’s season ending due to a blood clot in his shoulder was gutting not just for the Spurs and their fans, but NBA fans as a whole. That we won’t get to see one of the best young talents make a real push for the Play-In down the stretch is just a bummer, and we can all just hope that he makes a full recovery and can resume his incredibly promising young career next fall.
What Da Hell Is A Polar Bear Doing In Arlington, Texas Tier: Nets
I do not really know how the Nets are in the Play-In race after the All-Star break and I don’t think the Nets as an organization really want to be in the Play-In race after actively trading to get their own pick back, but here we are with Brooklyn a 1.5 games back of Chicago for 10th in the East. They’re 7-4 in their last 11 games and have been playing really solid defense. Aside from two losses to the Wizards of all teams, they’ve been playing some of the best basketball of any team in the East. After holding on to guys like Cam Johnson and Nic Claxton at the deadline, it sure seems like they’ll give this group a chance to go get the 10-seed, but there’s always the possibility they pull the ripcord and engage full tank mode to fall below Chicago and Philly (which may be a tough task).
Really Terrible Vibes Tier: Suns
The Suns are 2-8 in their last 10 with losses to Portland (twice), Toronto, and the Wemby-less Spurs. Also by letting trade talks involving Kevin Durant become public knowledge at the trade deadline, they’re almost assuredly going to have to trade him this summer and shake things up — which is maybe for the best, but it won’t be in the way they really want it to happen.
D-Tier: Blazers, Bulls, Raptors
All of these teams are trying to rebuild but none of them seem quite sure exactly how to do it. The Blazers had a stretch before the All-Star break where they were crushing, but have cooled back off a touch (aside from beating the Hornets by 53). They’ve got a weird mix of young guys and veterans and don’t seem to have fully figured out what direction they’re headed in the future. The Bulls were in freefall until they bludgeoned the Sixers (more on them in a moment) on Monday night in Philly. A rebuild is certainly the direction they should be headed, and while I’m not sure this is on purpose, it’s probably for the best that they are working their way out of the Play-In right now — although, that will require them dropping below the Nets or Sixers, which is going to take some real effort. Then you have the Raptors, who just traded for and extended Brandon Ingram, which was a bit of a confusing decision but shows that they plan on being competitive again next year. For now, they’re just meandering to the finish line of this season and will hope to add one more piece in the Draft before trying to work their way back up the standings in 25-26.
F-Tier: Jazz, Pelicans, Hornets
The Jazz and Hornets are right where they want to be, with a real shot at the top pick and Cooper Flagg. The Pelicans are also right there with them, despite not planning on being in the lottery ball hunt this season. The Zion Williamson late season surge is right on time, though, to start building a little hope for next year in New Orleans.
Absolute Disgrace Tier: 76ers
Even with Joel Embiid in and out of the lineup (and very much limited when he plays), the Sixers should not be this bad, and yet they went out and got beat by 32 by the actively tanking Bulls (trailing at one point by 50) in the worst individual game performance of any team this season. Paul George said after the game the team has “shown no sign of a team that will compete,” which is always good to hear in mid-February, and the fact that the Sixers cannot be better than the Bulls or Nets (much less any of the Southeast teams) is incredibly damning, although they are now probably focused on keeping their pick for next year.
The Wizards Tier: Wizards
The Wizards won four games in February, nearly doubling their season total, and are still four games clear of the next worst team in the NBA. It’s pretty clear they are the worst team in the league but March will give them a number of opportunities to prove that further as they will face the Hornets, Jazz (twice), Raptors (three times), Blazers (twice), Nets, and Sixers. That would be an exceptionally soft schedule for anyone else in the NBA, but for the Wizards it is a tanking gauntlet being laid down by the NBA.
