Why Rockets GM Daryl Morey Is Wrong When He Says They Can Win The Title ‘Without’ Patrick Beverley

Dwight Howard, Hakeem Olajuwon, Daryl Morey, Yao Ming
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UPDATE: It’s official. According to the Houston Chronicle, Beverley has opted for surgery and will miss the season’s remainder.

PREVIOUSLY: The Rockets are now the No. 2 team in the Wester Conference after Memphis lost and they won last night. Dwight Howard is back on the court after missing 25 games and put up his first double-double since his return in Houston’s win over Washington on Sunday. Perhaps all the good news is why Rockets GM Daryl Morey was so enthusiastic about his team’s title chances on Sunday, despite lingering injury issues with Dwight and the loss of Patrick Beverly, the latter of which could be for the season.

Morey was more interested in his team’s title chances than in Beverley’s wrist, or Dwight’s knee on Sunday. He didn’t say the Rockets were favorites — that distinction goes to the league-leading Warriors — but he did say he thought they could beat any team in a seven-game series:

“We won’t go in as the favorite,” Morey said. “I think Golden State, deservedly so, gets to be called the favorite. They’ve had a very historic season. I think the Golden State training staff hasn’t been talked about enough this year. That team has been healthy and really that showcased everyone in Golden State. Coach [Steve] Kerr has done a great job. We won’t go in as the favorite. We do feel like we can beat anybody in a seven-game series, and we’re pretty excited to get going with the playoffs.”

Howard isn’t playing tonight in Toronto, and while it’s adorable that after 10 years in the league, Howard wants to fit in and not worry about his touches in the post (cue Mike D’Antoni grimace), he still has to be on the court to do that.

There’s also the small matter of Patrick Beverley’s torn ligament in his left wrist, which coach Kevin McHale said is likely to knock him out for the rest of the season  (he’s listed as out until at least early April). James Harden is a passable defender, but he expends too much energy on the offensive end to take on the opponent’s best backcourt player, and Beverley was born for that challenge. Morey thinks this Rockets team can overcome that gaping hole:

“We think we can win the title with or without Beverley,” Morey said on ESPN Radio’s Basketball Insiders show. “Obviously it gets more challenging without Beverley; he’s the key to our ability to guard a lot of these very good point guards in the West.”

So, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, Damian Lillard, Mike COnley, Tony Parker and Rajon Rondo — the group of point guards the Rockets will face in the Western Conference playoffs — will be matched up against 37-year-old Jason Terry. Point guard is the deepest position in the NBA, and Houston is entrusting their fate to a player in his 16th season who didn’t even get into a game for the Kings last season after being dealt from Brooklyn to Sacramento at the trade deadline. Beverley isn’t in the same class offensively as the guards listed above, but he’s a huge nuisance on the defensive end, and Harden plays the ostensible facilitator on offense anyway.

Terry was a solid team defender for the 2011 Mavericks who won the title, but he’s not going to have any chance at corralling the group of NBA stars listed above. Some will be left to the long arms of Trevor Ariza, but Terry’s aging presence in the backcourt should set off alarm bells for Rockets fans. Pablo Prigioni can run an offense and knock down a three, but he’s in his late 30s as well, and Corey Brewer can’t shoot, but is certainly a valuable source of energy off the bench. So who stops the all-star point guards in the playoffs?

The Rockets are the fourth stingiest defense in the NBA right now, and Terry’s defensive real-plus minus, as well as his on/off numbers all suggest he’s fitting in well with the Rockets on the defensive end. We just can’t see him as an everyday obstacle to some of the best guards in the league.

Morey’s confidence is closer to regular season bluster than any actual assurance his team is poised to truly contend. When the defense gets cranked up to the highest level and one of his regular guards can’t keep anyone out of the paint, he’s going to wish he hadn’t been quite so sure of his team in March. Maybe all this is moot and Beverley will surprise his coach by returning this season. The Rockets — and Morey — better hope so.

(ESPN)