Confession: the opening rounds of the NCAA Tournament, specifically those delirious opening days, is a whole lot more exciting for casual basketball fans than the first round of the NBA Playoffs. That’s because the superior team almost always wins in the NBA playoffs. On any given night, no one is unbeatable, and other athletic bromides are true, but since the NBA switched to a seven-game opening round series in 2003, only the 2007 Warriors and 2011 Grizzlies have knocked off a No. 1 seed in the first round. In short: the NBA cuts the fat as teams move closer to the Larry O’Brien trophy. This is a good thing, as evidenced by the Spurs winning last year and the Heat surviving that same Spurs team in 2013. That was some otherworldly basketball you’ll never find even close to the college game. Still, upsets do happen at the NBA level, even in a seven-game series.
As we noted in our playoff preview, five matchups went the distance last year, leading to a helter-skelter weekend where we got five Game 7s and very little cardiac comfort. That’s not going to happen this year, specifically in regards to the top seeds. But there’s plenty of cutthroat basketball to be played, even if it seems – on the surface – like the NBA lacks the parity of other professional sports.
Discounting the 4-5 tugs-of-war that act as the closest first-round contest in each conference, here are three possible upsets you should keep an eye on. And yes, discounting the Dubs, we could list all three first-round tilts in the West and get mostly the same action, but we threw an Eastern Conference clash in the mix, while also including the backwards 3-6 series that tips off in Los Angeles.
Mavs Over Rockets
James Harden might trump this upset. He’s been so consistently good all season, we’re not discounting his ability to single-handedly carry his squad over a Mavericks team with all sorts of issues. But man, the Rockets could really use Patrick Beverley. While Donatas Motiejunas is also a key cog for their team, even coming off the bench behind Dwight, Beverley is their starting point guard and the biggest reason opposing point guards are so depressed the night before facing Houston.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHg4xD5pv-M
Now it’ll be on Jason Terry and Harden to stay with the likes of Rajon Rondo, Monta Ellis and Devin Harris. Sure, Dallas’ trio in the backcourt isn’t exactly Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, Stephen Curry or Tony Parker, three of whom Houston might face if they advance, but they’re nothing to scoff at either. Plus, bored Rondo can morph into Playoff Rondo faster than you can say Connect Four.
The Rockets won the season series 3-1, but that was with Beverley in the lineup, and Rondo actually showed glimmers of some offense connecting on 6-of-9 from the field in Dallas’ 111-100 win on Feb. 20. But Trevor Ariza can help out with some of the defensive issues, and the Mavericks still haven’t found a way to slow down Harden, who didn’t exactly smoke Dallas during their four games, yet shot 40 percent from beyond the arc in those contests. That can’t happen if Dallas is to pull off the upset.
The biggest factor supporting an early Rockets exit? Rick Carlisle. He almost game planned his way to an upset over the mighty Spurs in the first round last year, and if it weren’t for a flat Game 7 in San Antonio, the Mavs might have moved on. Carlisle comes as close to Popovich as any other coach for an in-game tactical advantage over the other team, and never is that more important than when you’re seeing the same team 4-7 times over a two-week span like teams undergo in the playoffs.
Keep an eye on this series. Harden will get his, but if Carlisle can find a way to take advantage of Houston’s lack of depth in the backcourt, and Rondo even approaches his 2012 postseason, the Rockets are in serious trouble.
Spurs Over Clippers
This just isn’t fair. Only one loss separated the Clippers and the Spurs when the 2014-15 season concluded, and the two teams wouldn’t even be meeting in the first round if the Pelicans hadn’t shocked San Antonio on the final night of the season. But, alas, the defending champs will be playing the Clippers without homecourt advantage in the first round.
Except, the Spurs have been the best team for the last month of the season, despite Doc Rivers – and not the Michael Jordan of coaching – winning Coach of the Month for April. While the Clippers won the last two meetings against the Spurs during the regular season, those wins came in late January and mid-February, before San Antonio turned back into the Borg. What led to the turnaround?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHg4xD5pv-M
First, Kawhi Leonard finally found some rhythm when a lingering eye infection from preseason and torn ligament in his klaw healed. Second, Tony Parker got his groove back and it had nothing to do with Stella. TP is the pick-and-roll maestro who forces defenses to contain his sneaky floaters and quick darts into the lane; meanwhile, as they’re adjusting, they opponents often lose track of all of San Antonio’s shooters around the arc. Without Parker at full force, the Spurs just weren’t the Spurs; defenses could relax and track their perimeter passing and diagonal motions without anyone forcing the defense to bend away from their comfort zone. With Parker and Kawhi at full strength – combined with a team motivated to repeat as champs for the first time in franchise history – the Clippers better watch out.
Chris Paul and Blake are equally motivated to come back after last year’s heartbreaking loss to Oklahoma City. This is especially true considering CP3 turned the ball over and fouled Russell Westbrook late in that stunning collapse during Game 5 of the Conference Semifinals. The 3-2 lead broke the Clippers, and OKC won in Staples in Game 6. The added pressure of coming back from that loss only augments the tension in what is likely the most closely contested first-round series in the Association.
This isn’t an upset pick with the Spurs involved – it’s just a pick – but we had to include it.
Bucks Over Bulls
The only time Milwaukee beat Chicago this season was on the first of this month. Their 95-91 win at the sparse BMO Bradley Harris Center came against a Bulls team still missing Derrick Rose. That won’t be the case over the next two weeks, which is not a good sign for Milwaukee. Rose’s conspicuous absence doesn’t account for Milwaukee’s second-half swoon after Brandon Knight was dealt to Phoenix in return for the 2014 Rookie of the Year, Michael Carter-Williams. MCW – probably at the behest of his former-PG coach – has at least sheathed his propensity to shoot first and ask questions later, but they were still a piss-poor 11-18 after the All-Star break.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDeEC64aIE4
There’s good news, though. The Bucks won five of their last eight, and they still sport the second-best defense in the Association. We talked about this in our previews, but it’s worth mentioning all the long arms and young bodies they’ll throw at Chicago. The Bulls are finally healthy, but that means their current crop hasn’t had nearly as many repetitions together as some healthier playoff teams. Maybe it’s a stretch, but Milwaukee’s pressure defense could force them into a bunch of turnovers, and if they can split the first two in Chicago, that could spell doom for Chi-town if Milwaukee defends their — albeit crumbling — homecourt.
