The Phoenix Suns are the cinderella story of the 2013-2014 NBA season. This NBA season has been depressing with the barrage of injuries to seemingly every team in playoff contention. Even the Phoenix Suns, who are the eighth seed in the Western Conference, have been affected by a rash of injuries. With Eric Bledsoe having a piece of his meniscus removed, suddenly everyone is writing the Phoenix Suns off.
Bledsoe elected to have a piece of his meniscus removed, rather than having it repaired. This means that Bledsoe will be able to return in a shorter timetable (4-6 weeks), however it may have implications on his long-term career. (See: Dwyane Wade, meniscus, 2002)
It will be a difficult task for the Suns to maintain their elite level, particularly replacing Bledsoe’s 18.0 points, 5.8 assists and 4.3 rebounds he puts up every game. Regardless of the return of Bledsoe, the Suns still must find a way to stay afloat in the Western Conference. However, I believe the Suns with be just fine.
The All-Star break hasn’t even arrived yet, but the Phoenix Suns should be treating every game like a playoff game. The Suns are only two games away from going from an eighth seed to an 11th or 12th seed — that’s how competitive the Western Conference is this season. The Suns are a game behind Dallas for the seventh seed after going on a rough three-game losing streak. As you can tell, a few victories or losses here could keep the Suns in or out of the playoff race. With that being said, there are many reasons to believe the Suns will overcome the injury to Bledsoe and hold their playoff spot while he recovers. Let’s take a look at the reasons the Suns will make the playoffs with or without Eric Bledsoe.
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The Play of Goran Dragic
Eric Bledsoe garnered a large percentage of the hype in Phoenix this season, but Goran Dragic is playing as good, if not better than Bledsoe. With the injury to Bledsoe, this is important to look at. While the Suns will be missing a lot with Bledsoe out, it’s not like they don’t have someone in Dragic who has been having the best season of his career. Look at these per game and advanced statistics charts from Basketball-reference.com.
Their points, assists, steals and shooting percentages are practically identical. Dragic and Bledsoe have similar PERs, true shooting percentages and usage percentages. Dragic is the true point guard between the two and the one who is more successful initiating the offense. This season, people have been quick to anoint Eric Bledsoe as the reason for the Suns’ success, but Dragic has been just as important.
Per 82games.com, Eric Bledsoe only appears in two of the Phoenix Suns’ five most effective lineups. On the other hand, Dragic appears in four of the Phoenix Suns top five-man floor units. These three lineups with Dragic are only 23-18 this season, while the two with Bledsoe are 12-13. The Suns second best unit consists of Dragic, Green, Tucker, Frye and Plumlee. The Suns have used this lineup for almost 200 minutes this season, while scoring 1.14 points per 100 possessions and having a +/- of eight. It’s important to note that the No. 3 ranked floor unit, which features Bledsoe without Dragic, gives up 1.03 points per 100 possessions, while only scoring 0.93 points per 100 possessions. Also look at how every top five floor unit has a +/- of 14 or higher, while the one with Bledsoe running the point without Dragic, has a +/- of -18. When looking at this, one can even argue that Dragic is more important to the Suns’ success, rather than Bledsoe.
It’s obvious the All-Star caliber play of Goran Dragic can keep the Suns in contention while Bledsoe recovers. Dragic can run the two-point guard sets, but he can also have the offense run through him and maintain a high level of play. The Suns still have lineups that they have used for over 300 combined minutes this season, without Bledsoe, that have contributed to a large amount of wins already for Phoenix. My point is that the Suns have been using lineups all season without Bledsoe that have seen successful.
Weak Schedule For The Next Month
There is never a good time for a star player to suffer an injury, but this is perhaps the best time it could have happened. With Bledsoe reported to be out about four to six weeks, I looked at the Suns schedule from now until their last game in February on the 28th. Bledsoe should be back, or close to returning by the end of February. Out of 21 total games during this stretch, 11 of the Suns’ opponents will have records under .500. That will play a huge role for Phoenix being able to stay in the hunt during Bledsoe’s absence. Even if Bledsoe is out longer than indicated, this stretch of games is important. After February, there will only be about a month and a half left of games for the Suns. If the Suns take care of business against opponents they should beat, it should solidify their playoff position.
Another point about the schedule is the lack of games during this stretch. For about the next 40 days, the Suns will only play in 21 games. The lack of strength and lack of games during this next month and a half means Phoenix will have plenty of opportunities to prove their worth as a playoff team. Even without Bledsoe, this next month and a half features opponents like Philadelphia, Cleveland, Los Angeles [Lakers], Utah, Boston and Milwaukee — all games that the Suns should have no problem winning. Bledsoe is an important part of the team, but they can sustain success without him, which they will have to do to remain in the playoff hunt.
Impact of Gerald Green and P.J. Tucker
With the Bledsoe injury, Gerald Green and P.J. Tucker will be asked to step up in his absence. The top five-floor man units referenced earlier include Eric Bledsoe in only two of them, however Gerald Green appears in four of the units while Tucker appears in three of them. Two of the top five-man floor units (highlighted) also include Green and Tucker together, which are the second and third most successful floor units for the Suns. Both Tucker and Green play over 25 minutes together, meaning both are used to being on the floor and working with each other.
For most of his career, Gerald Green has been known as someone who will rip the rim off the backboard if given the opportunity. But now, Green will have a chance to prove his worth as legitimate NBA talent. To date, Gerald Green is averaging 13.2 points (third on the team), on 43 percent shooting and 37 percent from deep in 27.6 minutes per game. Green’s per-36 minute stats increase his scoring to 17.2 points, which could be a reality with extra minutes coming his way due to the Bledsoe injury. Green has contributed 2.2 win shares this season, which competes with Bledsoe’s 2.6.
On the other hand, P.J. Tucker is putting up 9.1 points and 5.8 rebounds in 30.1 minutes per game. Tucker’s rebounding numbers don’t stand out, but he’s second on the team in offensive rebounds, grabbing 2.2 per game. Tucker is the best three-point shooter on the roster, shooting 43 percent from deep this season. In the past three games, Tucker is averaging 11.3 points while pulling down 8.7 boards, including a 17-point, 11-rebound performance in a win against Detroit on January 11. Everyone was premature when writing Phoenix off as soon as Bledsoe went down. The Suns will be alright, as long as Green and Tucker continue the type of play they have shown flashes of this season. It won’t be a long-term solution for Bledsoe, merely a band aid on an open wound.
Depth in the frontcourt
While the names of Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe have been heralded as the reasons for the surprise season in Phoenix, the frontcourt is the glue that is holding this thing together, particularly, the performance of the Morris brothers, Miles Plumlee and Channing Frye. This season, Frye has the highest +/- on the Suns, at plus-199 for the season. The 6-11 Frye has the unique ability as a big man to stroke it at a high percentage from deep, shooting 42 percent from there this season. Frye is scoring 11.9 points and grabbing 5.4 rebounds this season and has contributed 3.0 win shares, second to only Goran Dragic’s 4.6. Frye gives the Suns the unique ability to stretch the floor with their big man. His 42 percent from deep is second on a team that severely lacks consistent perimeter shooting. Even if Frye isn’t dominating the game, his ability to stretch the floor opens lanes for his other teammates to put points on the board.
The combination of the Morris brothers has been fantastic for Phoenix this season. All they needed was to play together to find their potential… who would’ve thought? It’s funny that the two are brothers because of the similarities of their stat lines. The only noticeable difference (since you can’t tell the two apart by looks) is that Marcus is the better three-point shooter, shooting 38 percent from deep compared to 29 percent for Markieff. On the season, Marcus is averaging 10.4 points and 4.5 rebounds on 43 percent shooting. Markieff Morris is averaging 11.4 points and 5.8 rebounds on 46 percent shooting. The bruising play of Markieff and Marcus Morris doesn’t figure to change with the absence of Bledsoe. In fact, it could only raise their level of play.
Perhaps the biggest surprise out of all the studs in Phoenix’s frontcourt is Miles Plumlee. The man was literally thrown away by Indiana (along with Gerald Green) after only playing 55 total minutes, and scoring 13 total points for his rookie season with the Pacers. Turns out that diamond just needed a little pressure to truly shine. Plumlee is close to averaging a double-double with 10.0 points and 9.1 rebounds, to go along with 1.7 blocks per game. Plumlee has nine double-doubles this season, including a monster game against the Lakers on December 23 when he scored 17 points and grabbed 20 rebounds.
Per SportVU, Plumlee is grabbing 42.4 percent of his contested rebounds, which is higher than DeAndre Jordan, Dwight Howard and Joakim Noah. After only playing in 14 games last season with Indiana, Plumlee has started 37 games this season and has clearly responded quite well to the pressure. To add, Plumlee has also contributed 1.7 defensive win shares, which leads the team in that respective category (per Basketball-reference). Plumlee looks comfortable on the court and uses his strength to power down huge slams.
All in all, the frontcourt has been a huge reason for the early success of the Phoenix Suns. This frontcourt has been overshadowed by the excellent play at the guard position, but the Bledsoe injury just gives these monsters more opportunities to excel. Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe have been grabbing the headlines, but just like the offensive line for Adrian Peterson‘s 2000-yard season, the frontcourt of the Phoenix Suns is really the group that deserves credit.
Tempo
One of the most impressive things about Phoenix is the formula they use to win games. I know, the typical formula is to outscore the other opponent, right? Well true, but there’s more to it than that: pace, plus a deadly fast-break attack. The Suns rank ninth in pace at 95.2 possessions used per 48 minutes, while also having the number one fast-break attack in the NBA at 18.5 fast-break points per game (per Teamrankings.com). Typically, a high pace is a solid way to tank, since the higher the pace the more shots a team is taking earlier in the shot clock. This creates extra possessions for each team, usually giving the upper hand to the more talented team.
However, playing at a high pace rewards team that excel in transition, like the Suns. Other winning teams that appear in the top six in fast-break points this season are the Oklahoma City Thunder, Los Angeles Clippers and Houston Rockets. The Suns have figured out how to run like hell in transition and combined it with a pace that creates more possessions for their team. This isn’t anything like the “7 Seconds or Less” method that D’Antoni implemented in Phoenix, but Jeff Hornacek has found the perfect recipe for Phoenix’s success.
Perimeter Defense
There is nothing about the Suns defense that will be bringing home any hardware or recognition. The Suns defense is mediocre as a whole (16th in the NBA, giving up 100.6 PPG), but there is a saving grace that stands out while watching the Suns play. Per Synergy, the Suns are only giving up .87 points per possession to their opponents, which is seventh in the NBA. Specifically, the excellent perimeter defense of the Suns is what stands out. With a scoring stud like Bledsoe out for a remainder of time, it’s important for the Suns to play hard-nosed defense to balance the scoring loss.
With that being said, there is no offensive play where opponents shoot better than 37 percent on the Suns from deep. Whether it’s isolation, P-n-R, spot-ups, off screens or transition, opponents aren’t putting the ball through the hoop from deep. Most of the opponents three-point attempts come from spot-up attempts, where opponents are shooting just 35.1 percent (per Synergy). For a team that was supposed to be tanking, the Suns have committed to locking down opponents from beyond the arc. One of the most heart wrenching shots can be the three-pointer, especially in a close game. The Suns defense and the word elite shouldn’t find themselves in the same category, but the perimeter defense is something worth talking about. It shouldn’t take a hit with the absence of Bledsoe, either.
Will Phoenix make the playoffs?
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