Ben Simmons Is The Rookie Of The Year, And It Might Not Be As Close As You Think

There are currently two rookies who have separated themselves from the rest of the first-year players in the NBA. There is Donovan Mitchell, who has been absolute dynamite for the Utah Jazz this year. There is also Ben Simmons, who in a few months should be named the 2017-18 NBA Rookie of the Year in a race that isn’t especially close.

To be 100 percent clear, this is not meant to be an indictment against Mitchell at all. It cannot be stressed enough just how good he is — if we did a 2017 redraft, Mitchell is a top-3 pick and you can make a case that he deserves to go No. 1 overall. He is also, depending on how you view Rudy Gobert, the best player on a Jazz squad that is likely going to make the postseason.

This is ultimately what the ROY race comes down to: Should Mitchell’s status as the No. 1 option on the 44-33 Jazz squad be viewed as more important than Simmons’ status as, basically, the No. 1A option on the 46-30 Sixers?

The answer, of course, is “this argument is dishonest.” Obviously the Jazz are not in the position they are in without Mitchell going supernova this season, especially with Gobert missing 26 games this year. Utah also went 11-15 in those games, and 10-14 in the Gobert-less games where Mitchell played (12-15 if you want to say he missed essentially 27 games when Gobert played two minutes against Boston on Dec. 15 before getting hurt, which is fair).

You can make an strong argument that, in the wake of Gordon Hayward leaving in free agency, the Jazz should have been worse than 10-14 in games he played without Gobert, which is a feather in the Rookie of the Year cap Mitchell is wearing. You also cannot with any certainty say that would have happened. All we know are the facts of the matter, and the facts indicate that the Jazz would have been about a 34-win team over the course of a full season if we extrapolate that 24-game sample out over a full year.

The Sixers, meanwhile, have been 4-8 without their No. 1 option, Joel Embiid. All of those games have been played with Simmons in the lineup. The Sixers would have been a 27-win team if that happened over the course of a full year, although with Embiid sidelined until the postseason, that is going to change one way or the other. Besides, Philly has learned how to play like a playoff team with Simmons while Embiid is resting or sidelined.

Now here’s why this argument is dishonest: It is extremely irresponsible to use a sample size of 12 or 24 games that were played under unusual circumstances to determine an award winner, save for maybe Coach of the Year. This is done solely because, when you look at those two samples and make the argument something other than “who has been better at basketball this year,” you can frame the argument so you can say Mitchell deserves to win.

When it comes to the Rookie of the Year award, Mitchell and Simmons have to be judged on the totality of their work, because the award is for the Rookie of the Year, not the Rookie Whose Team Played The Best While Their Star Center Was Out. (In a way, it says a lot about the argument for Mitchell that the argument for him stems from the latter but not the former.)

For how great Mitchell has been, the best rookie in basketball this year has easily been Simmons. Mitchell has, and always will have, the upper hand on Simmons when it comes to numbers related to shooting. He is a better scorer, better at shooting free throws, has made more than zero threes this year, and has a jump shot that is not described as “broken and needs a whole lot of work.”

In every other quantifiable statistic, Simmons has been better. Here’s how the pair compare just by regular statistics, via Basketball-Reference.

Putting them side-by-side, you can see that Simmons is asked to score less, but finds way to impact games in other ways — he is a better rebounder and distributor than Mitchell, and while he doesn’t score as much, his field goal percentage is higher. Plus he’s scoring 4.5 fewer points than Mitchell on 4.7 fewer shots per game, and if you want to get way into the weeds on counting stats, Simmons has more triple-doubles (11) than Mitchell has double-doubles (0), which is remarkable. (Simmons also has two double-doubles that are just assists and rebounds, which is tied with Draymond Green for the top mark in the league in that extremely silly statistic.)

There’s also the fact that, when it comes to advanced stats, it’s hard to find one that shows that Mitchell has been drastically better (or, rather, more impactful) this year than Simmons. Let’s go down the list (and for the purposes of this, we won’t include things like rebounding percentage and block percentage where Simmons has a natural advantage by being way taller):

• PER: Simmons 19.7, Mitchell 16.4
• True Shooting Percentage: Simmons 55.3, Mitchell 54.1
• Assist Percentage: Simmons 37.6, Mitchell 19.3
• Steal Percentage: Simmons 2.4, Mitchell 2.3
• Turnover Percentage: Mitchell 12.7, Simmons 19.2
• Usage Percentage: Mitchell 29.0, Simmons 22.2
• Offensive Win Shares: Simmons 3.8, Mitchell 1.1
• Defensive Win Shares: Simmons 4.6, Mitchell 3.5
• Win Shares: Simmons 8.4, Mitchell 4.6
• Offensive Box Plus/Minus: Mitchell 1.1, Simmons 0.9
• Defensive Box Plus/Minus: Simmons 3.5, Mitchell -0.2
• Box Plus/Minus: Simmons 4.4, Mitchell 0.9
• VORP: Simmons 4.1, Mitchell 1.8
• Offensive Rating: Simmons 110, Mitchell 103
• Defensive Rating: Simmons 102, Mitchell 105

So basically, this shows us that Mitchell turns the ball over less, is asked to do more when he is on the floor, and has a marginally higher offensive box plus/minus. Simmons has the edge in everything else, whether it’s something narrow (their steal percentage is essentially the same) or a blowout, like the defensive box plus/minus for both players.

Oh, and one more thing: The totality of the argument regarding whether Simmons or Mitchell is the Rookie of the Year revolves around the offensive side of the ball. It’s Mitchell’s ability as a scorer vs. Simmons’ (and this is a very formal term) Tall Point Guardness™.

When you look at the two as defenders, Simmons has a pretty clear leg up. The numbers back this up, even if defensive numbers have their flaws: By defensive win shares, defensive box plus/minus, and defensive rating, Simmons has an edge. This is partly because there aren’t many NBA perimeter defenders more versatile than the Sixers’ rookie standout.

Here’s a video that shows Simmons during the Sixers’ first game against the Golden State Warriors this season. He had the unenviable task — regardless of height — of checking Steph Curry, and while he isn’t always perfect, you can see flashes of a lockdown defender.

Let’s fast forward a few months to March’s game between the Sixers and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Simmons got the scariest assignment in basketball: Guarding LeBron James 1-on-1 while James had a head of steam. Here’s how he managed to hold up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_0jscu9kYs

His strength, reach, timing, and basketball IQ made it so he was able to physically match up against James and know that he was going to try to get a right-handed layup out of this possession. Simmons, understanding this, was able to take the contact, hold his ground, and strip the Cavs’ superstar.

Simmons mixes the length and athleticism to handle guards on the perimeter with the strength and size to battle in the low post against big men. This is insane, it’s part of the reason why he was considered a generational prospect coming out of school in addition to his unique offensive skill set.

To Mitchell’s credit, he is also a pesky defender, as he mixes a 6’3 frame with a 6’11 wingspan and the athleticism to create havoc in backcourts. Here’s a compilation of his performance against Russell Westbrook from earlier this year — he has some lapses, but on a number of occasions, he holds his own against the most explosive guard in the league.

A separate compilation of his defensive moments against Kyrie Irving isn’t quite as impressive even if there are occasions where he looks good. As of right now, Mitchell is a really good defender. Simmons, meanwhile, is an outstanding defender. If you think that is hyperbolic, that is fine, but the defensive numbers we have indicate that he’s at the very least better than Mitchell. That matters when you are trying to determine who has been the better basketball player over an 82-game season.

On both sides of the ball, Simmons has been better than Mitchell this year, which says more about the former than the latter. Mitchell has been fantastic for the Jazz. Simmons has just been a little more fantastic for the Sixers. And barring some kind of torrid late-season push, when the Rookie of the Year award is handed out, it will almost certainly head back to Philadelphia for the first time since Michael Carter-Williams won it in 2014.