With the trade deadline and All-Star Weekend in the books, we are officially in the stretch run of the NBA regular season. Each team has ~28 games left to make a move in the race for playoff and Play-In position in the East and West, but not all games are created equal on the schedule.
Yes, each game is important for those teams clawing for a playoff berth, but head-to-head matchups with the teams around you are ways to make up full games on your closest rivals. The second half of the NBA season isn’t always at front of mind as college basketball takes center stage in March, and as such we wanted to get a headstart on circling the calendar for the biggest games left on the schedule for each team as it pertains to playoff and Play-In races.
For some teams at the top, the stretch run is about making a couple statements and then just getting to April healthy. That’s not a luxury afforded to teams in the thick of the battle for the all-important top-6 (or, further down, top-10), and with some tight races there will be a lot of games that play important roles in who ends up with a playoff spot, Play-In spot, or a flight to Cancun in mid-April.
EAST
Cleveland Cavaliers (44-10, 0 GB)
2/21 vs. Knicks, 2/28 at Celtics, 4/2 vs. Knicks
The Cavs don’t have much left to prove in the regular season, but their three remaining games against the other top-3 seeds in the East will give them a chance to assert themselves as the East’s team to beat. A win over Boston, in particular, would give them some added cushion for the 1-seed.
Boston Celtics (39-16, 5.5 GB)
2/23 vs. Knicks, 2/28 vs. Cavs, 4/8 at Knicks
The Celtics haven’t seemed as dominant as people have wanted them to be in their title defense, but they’ve still been very good this season and have three more opportunities in the regular season to make a statement against the other top competition in the East.
New York Knicks (36-18, 8.0 GB)
2/21 at Cavs, 2/23 at Celtics, 4/2 at Cavs, 4/8 vs. Celtics
The Knicks aren’t going to get the 1-seed, but they will have two cracks at both of the top teams in the East coming down the stretch, playing both immediately after the All-Star break and again right before the end of the season. The 2-seed and homecourt in a semifinals series with the Celtics isn’t out of the question, but they’d likely need to sweep both against Boston to have a chance.
Indiana Pacers (30-23, 13.5 GB)
3/11 vs. Bucks, 3/15 at Bucks
The Pacers somehow don’t have any remaining games with the Pistons, but do face the Bucks twice (both in the same week) as the three Central Division teams all do battle for the 4/5/6 spots in the East. If they can pick up wins in that home-and-home over Milwaukee, that’ll go a long way to getting homecourt in the first round.
Milwaukee Bucks (29-24, 14.5 GB)
3/11 at Pacers, 3/15 vs. Pacers, 4/11 at Pistons, 4/13 vs. Pistons
The Bucks, meanwhile, have two games left against both of their divisional rivals. Before they can think about proving themselves as a legit contender in the East, they need to lock down the best possible seed they can, and those four games (including two with Detroit to finish out the season) will be pivotal.
Detroit Pistons (29-26, 15.5 GB)
2/23 at Hawks, 3/19 at Heat, 4/11 vs. Bucks, 4/13 at Bucks
The Pistons aren’t just battling for the division crown, but also have to fend off the teams below them for that final guaranteed Playoff seed. They get a couple cracks at teams below them in Atlanta and Miami to try and build more of a cushion for that coveted 6-seed, before closing out their season with a home-and-home with Milwaukee that could be for the 5-seed.
Orlando Magic (27-29, 18.0 GB)
2/20 at Hawks, 4/8 vs. Hawks, 4/13 at Hawks
The Magic won’t get many head-to-head matchups with teams around them in the standings down the stretch, but they do have three games left with Atlanta. Those games could be for homecourt in the first Play-In Game — or, if Miami were to leap them both, could be for the all-important 8-seed which gives you two cracks at the Playoffs.
Atlanta Hawks (26-29, 18.5 GB)
2/20 vs. Magic, 2/23 vs. Pistons, 2/24 vs. Heat, 2/26 at Heat, 3/27 at Heat, 4/8 at Magic, 4/13 vs. Magic
The Hawks aren’t expected to make a real push for the 6-seed, but they will be in control of their destiny for the Play-In as they get to face both Miami and Orlando three times each down the stretch. Those six games will likely determine whether they are in the 7/8 matchup or the 9/10 game in April.
Miami Heat (25-8 (18.5 GB)
2/24 at Hawks, 2/26 vs. Hawks, 3/8 vs. Bulls, 3/19 vs. Pistons, 3/27 vs. Hawks, 4/9 at Bulls
Miami’s games with Atlanta will be critical for them to climb up the standings, but they also have two games against the Bulls to make sure they keep Chicago behind them — that 4/9 game may very well be a non-factor by the time we get there.
Chicago Bulls (22-33, 22.5 GB)
2/24 at Sixers, 3/8 at Heat, 3/13 vs. Nets, 4/9 vs. Heat, 4/13 at Sixers
Should the Bulls be trying to make the Play-In? That’s an entirely different question, but it sure seems like that’s the goal and if they’re going to get there they will need to fend off the Sixers and Nets behind them. They have two games with Philly and one with Brooklyn left, plus the two games with Miami that could give them an outside chance at moving to 9th (even if unlikely).
Philadelphia 76ers (20-34, 24.0 GB)
2/22 vs. Nets, 2/24 vs. Bulls, 3/10 at Hawks, 3/23 at Hawks, 3/29 vs. Heat, 4/7 at Heat, 4/13 vs. Bulls
The Sixers have had a dreadful season but they will have some real chances at climbing the ladder. They have two games with each of the three teams directly ahead of them in the standings, as well as one with Brooklyn straight out of the gates from the All-Star break. They aren’t likely to catch the group of Atlanta/Miami/Orlando, but they’ve just gotta have wins against the middle of the pack to make up ground.
Brooklyn Nets (20-34, 24.0 GB)
2/22 at Sixers, 3/13 at Bulls
The Nets are supposed to be tanking but are just 1.5 games out of 10th. After not trading guys like Cam Johnson and Nic Claxton at the deadline, it’s possible the Nets will just see out this season, recognizing even the most aggressive tank likely won’t get them top-4 lottery odds. If that’s the case and they want to see if they can crack the Play-In field, they’ll need wins over Philly and Chicago in their two head-to-head matchups. It seems unlikely they make it to the 10-seed, but they’ve also already eclipsed their preseason win total so it’s not out of the question.
WEST
Oklahoma City Thunder (44-10, 0 GB)
3/5 at Grizzlies, 3/9 and 3/10 vs. Nuggets, 3/12 at Celtics
Even moreso than the Cavs, the Thunder enter the second half of the season with little reason for concern about the 1-seed. Everything is about making a statement, and they’ll have a few chances to do so in a one week stretch in early March. A visit to Memphis, a back-to-back at home with Denver, and a trip to Boston over the course of 8 days will be a chance to make a big statement before shifting full attention to being healthy for the playoffs.
Memphis Grizzlies (36-18, 8.0 GB)
3/5 vs. Thunder, 3/27 at Thunder, 3/29 vs. Lakers, 4/11 at Nuggets
Memphis isn’t catching OKC for the top seed, but their two games with the Thunder in March will be opportunities to prove something to themselves as much as the rest of the league that they can be a real threat to OKC’s apparent dominance in the West. From there, they’ll be looking to hold off Denver, Houston, and L.A. for the 2-seed (and, at least, land the 3-seed), and will face the Lakers and Nuggets late in the year in two games that could prove critical for seeding battles.
Denver Nuggets (36-19, 8.5 GB)
2/22 vs. Lakers, 3/14 vs. Lakers, 3/19 at Lakers, 3/23 at Rockets, 4/11 vs. Grizzlies, 4/13 at Rockets
Denver has three games against the Lakers in the next month, a team they’ve dominated in recent years, and if they can sweep the new-look Lakers they could give themselves a big cushion for a top-4 seed in the process. They also get a pair of games with the Rockets, including the season finale in Houston, and that late game with Memphis, all of which could be important for seeding,
Houston Rockets (34-21, 10.5 GB)
3/23 vs. Nuggets, 3/31 at Lakers, 4/9 at Clippers, 4/11 at Lakers, 4/13 vs. Nuggets
Houston doesn’t have any more head-to-heads with Memphis, but they do get two games with Nuggets directly ahead of them and two games with the Lakers right behind them that could determine if they hold on to a top-4 seed. Their closing stretch of Clippers-Lakers-Nuggets could provide a real opportunity for upward movement in the standings, but also the danger of falling right before the playoffs.
Los Angeles Lakers (32-20, 11.0 GB)
2/22 at Nuggets, 2/27 vs. Wolves, 2/28 vs. Clippers, 3/2 vs. Clippers, 3/14 at Nuggets, 3/19 vs. Nuggets, 3/31 vs. Rockets, 4/9 at Mavericks, 4/11 at Rockets
The middle of the West is very condensed, and as the schedule happens to fall, the Lakers play everyone around them multiple times. They have three games with Denver, two games with Houston, two with the Clippers, and two with the Mavericks, along with a game with Minnesota left on their schedule. Those are a lot of opportunities to get some head-to-head wins, and of all the teams in the West Playoff race, the Lakers will have the most chances to move up (or down) thanks to that schedule.
An aside, I only listed one of the Mavs games, because the game in L.A. will be while Anthony Davis is still out, but that April 9 game will be the most-watched game of the regular season as Luka Doncic returns to Dallas.
Los Angeles Clippers (31-23, 13.0 GB)
2/28 at Lakers, 3/2 at Lakers, 4/4 and 4/5 vs. Mavs, 4/9 vs. Rockets, 4/13 at Warriors
The Clippers have two games with the Lakers coming up in two weeks that’ll give them a chance to move back ahead of their crosstown rivals for fifth in the West. They also are trying to hold off Minnesota, Dallas, Golden State, and others for that all-important 6-seed, and will face Dallas twice and the Warriors once in the final two weeks of the regular season in what could be important games for playoff and Play-In seeding.
Minnesota Timberwolves (31-25, 14.0 GB)
2/27 at Lakers, 3/2 at Suns, 3/28 vs. Suns
The Wolves are at the opposite end of the spectrum from the Lakers, as they have very few head-to-head opportunities left on their schedule. The only have three games left against teams from 5-12 in the West standings, which is pretty wild. The good news is they do have a lot of games with the East and with some of the bottom feeders, and will need to take full advantage of those because they’ll have very few chances to make up full games on teams in head-to-head matchups.
Dallas Mavericks (30-26, 15.0 GB)
2/23 at Warriors, 2/25 at Lakers, 3/3 vs. Kings, 3/9 vs. Suns, 4/4 and 4/5 at Clippers, 4/9 vs. Lakers
The Mavs have the aforementioned two games left against the Lakers, but beyond that they’ll get a look at every team other than the Wolves around them. They have a back-to-back at the Intuit dome late against the Clippers and games with Golden State, Sacramento, and Phoenix that will all be big for Play-In seeding. How they navigate this early stretch of Golden State, L.A., Sacramento, and Phoenix over the next few weeks while they are without most of their bigs will be huge in determining if they can hold onto a spot in the 7/8 Play-In game.
Sacramento Kings (28-27, 16.5 GB)
2/21 vs. Warriors, 3/3 at Mavs, 3/7 vs. Spurs, 3/13 at Warriors, 3/14 at Suns, 4/13 at Suns
The Kings are something of the forgotten team in the West Play-In, but they’ve got plenty of chances to spoil the party for someone and get themselves into the postseason. The biggest games are those four matchups with the Warriors and Suns, as wins over those teams will go a very long way to getting them into the Play-In. From there, they also get the Mavs while they’ll still be without key guys in early March, which could be an opportunity to leapfrog Dallas and get some breathing room from the 10-seed race.
Golden State Warriors (28-27, 16.5 GB)
2/21 at Kings, 2/23 vs. Mavs, 3/13 vs. Kings, 3/30 at Spurs, 4/8 at Suns
Of the teams on the Play-In bubble, the Warriors seem to be the most dangerous after adding Jimmy Butler to the mix. They’ll get a chance to move up quickly with games against Sacramento and Dallas right after the All-Star break, and will have their sights set on that 7/8 game. The 6-seed isn’t out of the question, but they need to focus on the immediate task at hand and get out of the precarious position of the 10-seed.
Phoenix Suns (26-28, 18.0 GB)
2/20 at Spurs, 3/2 vs. Wolves, 3/9 at Mavs, 3/14 vs. Kings, 3/28 at Wolves, 4/8 vs. Warriors, 4/11 vs. Spurs, 4/13 at Kings
All you can ask for if you’re Phoenix are chances to make up ground, and they’ll have plenty. They get two with the Kings, two with the Wolves, and two with the Spurs in the stretch run, and will need to find the kind of consistency that has eluded them to this point of the season if they’re to make a push into the Play-In field.
San Antonio Spurs (23-29, 20.0 GB)
2/20 vs. Suns, 3/7 at Kings, 3/10 vs. Mavs, 3/12 vs. Mavs, 4/9 at Warriors, 4/11 at Suns
We’ll probably know by the end of that 3/12 game against Dallas if the Spurs have a shot at the Play-In, as Victor Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox, and company need to get busy to climb past Phoenix and one of the Play-In teams to make it to the postseason. They do have some chances, including a vital opener against Phoenix coming out of the break, but if they don’t get hot over the next three weeks it’ll likely be one more year before we see Wemby in a playoff or Play-In environment.
