2017-18 Record: 42-40
Players Added: Marcin Gortat (trade), Luc Mbah a Moute (free agency), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (draft), Jerome Robinson (draft), Mike Scott (free agency),
Players Lost: DeAndre Jordan (free agency), Austin Rivers (trade), Sam Dekker (trade), C.J. Williams (free agency),
Projected Team MVP: Tobias Harris
Lou Williams was the Clippers MVP last season and while Staples Center will continue to be the adopted home of LouWillVille this season, some of his success a year ago was out of necessity due to injuries thinning out L.A.’s backcourt rotation. One would think that with Patrick Beverley and Milos Teodosic returning (at least until a trade happens) and rookies Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jerome Robinson added to the backcourt rotation, Williams, while still important, will likely see a slight reduction in role.
Harris will be the top offensive weapon for the starting lineup, and he was lights out last year after arriving as the centerpiece of the Blake Griffin trade. Harris averaged 19.3 points, six rebounds, and three assists per game in his 32 games with L.A., while shooting over 44 percent from three. If he can do that again, he’ll be the team MVP and enter free agency next summer with the ability to command major money. The Clippers have some strong offensive weapons on this roster, but Harris’ versatility is what sets him apart.
X-Factor: Danilo Gallinari
Every year the question is whether Gallinari can stay healthy. Last year, he played in only 21 games for the Clippers as he battled a glute injury and, eventually, had his season ended due to a fractured right hand. Those issues also saw him have a rough go of it when he was on the floor, shooting just 32.4 percent from three-point range and 39.8 percent from the field, averaging just over 15 points per game. In two games this preseason, he’s looked much more like the dynamic offensive player he’s proven to be in the times when healthy, and while that comes with the caveat of it being the preseason it bodes well for L.A.
If Gallo can be on the floor healthy for 65+ games, the Clippers suddenly have some serious offensive firepower along with Harris and Williams. If they can get quality guard play from their rotation of point guards, then suddenly they belong in that conversation for the final playoff spots in the West. If he’s in and out of the lineup again, then they likely look an awful lot like last year’s squad that simply couldn’t kick it into that next gear and live in the .500 range, which in the West is well out of the playoff picture.
Best Case Scenario:
The best case scenario that doesn’t involve an absolute theft in trading for Jimmy Butler is the Clippers sneak their way into the playoffs before getting beaten in five games by one of the West’s top teams. To get there, it will take a lot, but this is the type of team that seems like a bunch Doc Rivers is perfect to coach. He can get them to buy in and extract the most ability out of the young guys and veteran role players to make them better than they should be.
They’ll need Harris and Williams to have seasons like a year ago, along with a healthy season from Gallinari to give them much-needed pop offensively as discussed above. If Gortat is a capable replacement for Jordan, which he can be provided he’s asked to play a different role than what Jordan played, and they get positive contributions out of either Robinson or Gilgeous-Alexander (more likely the latter), then suddenly you’ve got a team with depth and scoring punch from all three levels. The ceiling might be 45 or 46 wins and the eight seed, but that’s still impressive in the West this season.
Worst Case Scenario:
The floor for this Clippers team seems like it’s the 12th or 13th spot in the West at like 34-35 wins. That happens if Gallinari can’t stay healthy, neither can their veterans at point guard, and they have to rely on their rookie backcourt to play big minutes against very good teams in the West and slip into the 30s in wins. There’s also a scenario, albeit one that seems unlikely, that they fall behind in the playoff race early enough that they explore trades for Harris’ expiring contract in an effort to bring in more young players and draft assets to continue a rebuild in L.A.
The good news for the Clippers is that they’ll be in good shape entering next summer no matter what happens this season, with up to $53 million in space as currently constructed and have a ton of expiring deals that they could look to move if need be, headlined by Harris. It’d be fairly stunning for them to deal Harris given that he was the biggest piece that returned in the Griffin trade, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they dealt away some of their other expiring veteran deals to contenders if they deem themselves well out of the race in February.
L.A. is in a place where this season they’re really playing with house money.They’re back to being extremely under the radar because LeBron now shares the same building with them for L.A.’s other team, so expectations are low. Not many project them to make the playoffs, so if they do it’ll be a pleasant surprise. The West is so deep that finishing 12th or 13th doesn’t really look bad, and it’s hard to see a scenario where they aren’t comfortably ahead of the Kings and Suns. They have tons of money next summer and can look to position themselves as best they can to land a big free agent, whether Jimmy Butler or Kawhi Leonard or someone else.
