The Cleveland Cavaliers are down 3-1 in the NBA Finals as the series returns to Oakland tonight. Fairly or unfairly, Kevin Love, the UCLA product, has taken much of the criticism for the Cavaliers struggles. It didn’t help matters with his detractors, that the only game Cleveland has won, Game 3, was a 30 point Cavs victory that Love sat out with a concussion. Whether or not the criticism is warranted, it is worrisome that Love has become little more than a standstill shooter with the Cavaliers who doesn’t play great defense. The former All-Star has essentially morphed into a rich man’s Channing Frye – and has the $22 million salary to show for it.
Which begs the question, would the Cavaliers be in a better position moving forward had they never acquired Love? Or, to take it a step further, what if in 2013 instead of taking Anthony Bennett the Cavaliers had taken Nerlens Noel with the No. 1 overall pick?
Noel was ranked as the top prospect on many teams’ draft boards because of his uncanny defensive ability. The biggest question mark about his future – in addition to his offensive ceiling, of course – was that the hyper-athletic big man tore his ACL in February while playing for Kentucky, which meant he was in danger of having to sit out some if not all of the 2013-14 season.
This shouldn’t have been a problem for Cleveland, however, who was still in rebuilding mode at the time and would almost undoubtedly receive another high draft pick the following season. That the wine and gold’s top draft pick would likely spend his first professional season on the sidelines only increased the possibility of them selecting in the high lottery again one year later.
Instead of calling Noel’s name to begin the draft, though, commissioner David Stern inexplicably announced that the Cavaliers chose UNLV power forward Anthony Bennett with the No. 1 pick. Everyone was dumbfounded. Bennett, to be fair, was projected as a surefire lottery pick, and some believed he might go so high as third overall to the Washington Wizards. But absolutely no one had him coming off the board first.
Bennett, to say the least, struggled in his first season with the Cavaliers. He didn’t make a single start, averaged 4.2 points per game on 39 percent shooting, and made just 52 total appearances. The Canadian import eventually ended up being little more than filler in the trade that sent Andrew Wiggins to the Minnesota Timberwolves in exchange for Love.
Some would say Bennett’s disappointing tenure in Northeast Ohio was a blessing because it allowed the Cavaliers to be woeful for another year and win the first pick in the draft for a second-consecutive season. However, is Cleveland really in a better position now and going forward after having passed on Noel?
Not necessarily. Noel, had he been drafted by Cleveland, would still be under his rookie contract for one more season before becoming a restricted free agent. The Kentucky product excels on the defensive end as one of the game’s most disruptive interior defenders. Think the Cavaliers could use a player like that against the Golden State Warriors?
Like a souped-up Steven Adams or even springier Serge Ibaka, Noel also has the agility to switch out on pick and rolls as well as the length to seriously bother shooters. He also has very quick hands and makes plays in passing lanes like a guard. According to Vantage Sports, Noel led all big men in deflections per 100 chances at 2.18. That disruptive nature is further exemplified by him leading all small forwards, power forwards, and centers in steals per 48 minutes.
As previously mentioned, if the Cavaliers had drafted Noel they would in all likelihood have still been guaranteed a high pick the following season. In addition to Wiggins, the 2014 draft possessed similarly elite prospects like Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid. Even players outside the top three have shown immense promise over the past two seasons.
Aaron Gordon, who went No. 4, is an incredible athlete who has the ability to guard. Marcus Smart, selected two picks later, is an absolutely dogged perimeter defender and one of the best perimeter rebounders in basketball. In fact, 10 of the top 13 picks in that draft have exhibited the potential to be exceptional role players at worst.
If they’d taken Noel, the Cavaliers would have two young pieces under their rookie contracts to go along with Kyrie Irving, who is still just 24 years old, and Tristan Thompson.
Of course, had Cleveland drafted Noel, there’s no guarantee that James would have signed with his hometown team. After all, he didn’t make the decision to return to Northeast Ohio until after the Cavaliers made Wiggins their second consecutive No. 1 overall draft pick.
Still, it stands to reason that a player as cerebral as James would have realized the long-term fruits of coming home to lead what would have been one of the most talented young roster in the league.
All is not lost for Cleveland with Love, obviously. He’s still a valuable player and remains a worthwhile commodity on the trade market. Given his salary, though, it’s fair to wonder if the Cavaliers would receive a package of assets befitting his talent in a potential trade.
Even so, it’s still interesting to wonder whether the Cavaliers made a fateful organizational decision when they passed on Noel with the No. 1 pick three years ago.
