The group stage of the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup will come to a close on Tuesday, and there is still plenty up for grabs both in terms of group winners and the Wild Card spot in each conference.
Three teams have clinched their group so far, as the Hawks won East Group C, the Rockets already clinched West Group A, and the Warriors did the same in West Group C. From there, 14 teams are eliminated from the Wild Card chase: the Sixers, Nets, Hornets, Heat, Raptors, Pacers, Bulls, Cavs, Wizards, Wolves, Kings, Lakers, Jazz, and Pelicans.
Everyone else has a chance to punch their ticket to the knockout rounds, and here, we will go through each scenario that leads to those teams playing next week for a chance to go to Las Vegas.
East Group A
Orlando Magic (3-0, +60 point differential)
Clinch Scenarios:
1. Beat the Knicks to win Group A
2. Lose by 30 or fewer to clinch the Wild Card
The Magic are about as close as you can be to a lock to make the knockout rounds. They will face the Knicks in a battle of 3-0 teams in Group A, so a win locks them in as the top seed in the quarterfinals, but they have such a gigantic lead in point differential over the rest of the teams alive for the Wild Card that as long as they don’t get blown out, they should make it through. The highest possible point differential of the teams behind them is +29 if the Bucks lose to the Pistons in overtime, as OT doesn’t count against your differential. Meanwhile, Boston is sitting at 3-1 already with a +23 differential, so as long as Orlando can just keep it within 30 against the Knicks, they are headed to the quarterfinals.
New York Knicks (3-0, +15 point differential)
Clinch Scenario:
1. Beat the Magic to win Group A
The Knicks’ only chance at the knockout rounds is to beat Orlando and win the group, because their point differential is already lower than the Celtics, so a loss (even in OT) would eliminate them from the Cup.
East Group B
Milwaukee Bucks (3-0, +29 point differential)
Clinch Scenarios:
1. Beat the Pistons to win Group B
2. Lose by 5 or fewer AND have the Magic beat the Knicks OR the Knicks beat the Magic by 32+
Like Group A, Group B will come down to a battle of undefeated teams on the final day, as the Bucks and Pistons will meet with the distinction of group winner on the line. However, both teams are alive on point differential if they can keep the game close. Milwaukee, at a +29 differential, needs to keep the game within five to top Boston’s +23 differential, and then they’ll need help from the Group A de facto title game. An Orlando win is the most likely helpful path for the Bucks, as they would need the Knicks to win by 32 or more to have a chance at catching the Magic on differential.
Detroit Pistons (3-0, +28 point differential)
Clinch Scenarios:
1. Beat the Bucks to win Group B
2. Lose by 4 or fewer AND have the Magic beat the Knicks OR the Knicks beat the Magic by 33+
The same formula exists for the Pistons, although their margin for a loss is one-point less as they come in at a +28 differential.
East Group C
Boston Celtics (3-1, +23 point differential)
Clinch Scenarios:
1. Orlando beats New York AND Milwaukee loses by 7+ OR Detroit loses by 6+
2. New York beats Orlando by 38+ AND Milwaukee loses by 7+ OR Detroit loses by 6+
The Celtics will be a very interested party watching Magic-Knicks and Bucks-Pistons, as an Orlando win opens the door for them to get in on point differential (or, an insane blowout win by New York). From there, they’ll want either the Bucks or Pistons to win their game comfortably, as both of those teams are currently above them in point differential by a slim margin.
West Group A
Portland Trail Blazers (2-1, -6 point differential)
Clinch Scenarios:
1. Beat the Clippers AND Thunder loss AND Mavs loss
2. Beat the Clippers by 25 points more than the Thunder beat the Jazz by AND Mavs loss
The Blazers are going to need help to get the West Wild Card, but it’s not impossible. It all starts with beating the Clippers. From there they’ll need the Mavs (who have a 47-point point differential advantage) to lose to the Grizzlies and either the Thunder to lose to the Jazz or, they will need to win by 25 points more than OKC beats Utah by to make up that point differential stagger. That is, obviously, highly unlikely, so their best chance is to be the only 3-1 team standing in the Wild Card chase.
Los Angeles Clippers (1-2, -5 point differential)
Clinch Scenario:
1. Beat the Blazers AND Thunder blowout loss AND Mavs blowout loss AND Spurs or Suns blowout loss
The Clippers, despite being 1-2, are technically still alive. They will need significant help, and it starts by beating the Blazers by a lot to help their point differential. They are currently 46 points behind Dallas, 24 points behind Phoenix, 23 points behind OKC, and 19 points behind San Antonio. That means they will need to make up all of those staggers in the combination of their margin of victory and those teams margins of defeat.
An example of an outcome that gets L.A. into the Wild Card is:
125-97 win over Portland
120-101 Memphis win over Dallas
114-110 Utah win over OKC
118-113 San Antonio win over Phoenix
That would bump their point differential up to +23, drop Dallas to +22, OKC to +14, and Phoenix to +15. Again, highly unlikely, but not impossible.
West Group B
San Antonio Spurs (2-1, +14 point differential)
Clinch Scenarios:
1. Beat the Suns to win Group B
2. Close loss to the Suns AND blowout Dallas loss AND Thunder loss AND Blazers loss by 18 or fewer
The Spurs control their destiny in their game against the Suns, as a win punches their ticket to the knockout rounds as the winners of Group B thanks to their win over the Thunder. That gives them the tiebreaker over OKC no matter what the Thunder do to the Jazz. However, if the Spurs can’t beat the Suns, they’ll need some serious help to make it as a 2-2 Wild Card. They will need Portland to lose (but not by so much that LAC makes up a 19-point deficit on differential), the Thunder to lose to the Jazz by 5 more points than the Spurs lose by, and Dallas to lose by 28 more points than they lose by.
Oklahoma City Thunder (2-1, +18 point differential)
Clinch Scenarios:
1. Beat the Jazz AND Suns win to win Group B
2. Beat the Jazz AND Spurs win AND Dallas loss OR Dallas win with MOV 24 points less than OKC’s MOV AND Portland loss OR Portland win with MOV less than 25 points more than OKC MOV
3. Loss to Utah AND Spurs loss by no more than three points better than OKC’s margin of defeat OR Suns loss by 2 more than OKC AND Dallas loss by 24 more than OKC AND Portland loss that is less than a 22-point differential with OKC
OK, so, the simplest scenario for OKC is they win and the Suns win, which would give them the top spot in the group having already beat Phoenix. Otherwise, things get a little complicated. They’ll need either a Dallas loss or to make up 24 points on Dallas in point differential if they don’t win the group. That means they’ll be looking to blowout the Jazz and hope for a close Mavs win to make up a ton of ground — they’d also need Portland not to win by 25 more than the Thunder win by, which seems highly unlikely.
Finally, they can get in as a 2-2 team if they lose to the Jazz and a ton of things happen, namely a Grizzlies blowout of the Mavs that is by 24 more points than OKC’s margin of defeat. From there, they’d need Portland to lose, but not so badly the Clippers make up a 23-point differential on the Thunder, and either the Spurs to lose and not make up a four-point differential or the Suns to lose by two points more than OKC loses by.
Phoenix Suns (2-1, +19 point differential)
Clinch Scenarios:
1. Beat the Spurs AND Jazz win to win Group B
2. Beat the Spurs AND Thunder win AND Mavs loss OR Mavs win with MOV 23 points less than Suns AND Blazers loss OR Blazers win with MOV less than 26 points more than Suns MOV
3. Loss to Spurs AND Thunder loss AND Mavs loss by 23 more than Suns AND Blazers loss that is less than a 23-point differential with Suns
The Suns scenarios are very similar to OKC’s, just with the added difficulty of needing the Jazz to upset the Thunder if they want to win the Group. Otherwise, they’ll need to be rooting for a Grizzlies win or to beat the Spurs by enough points to make up the 22-point differential deficit on the Mavs.
West Group C
Dallas Mavericks (2-1, +41 point differential)
Clinch Scenarios:
1. Beat Memphis AND avoid Phoenix beating San Antonio by 23 points more than Dallas’ margin of victory OR Oklahoma City beating Utah by 24 points more than Dallas’ MOV
2. Lose to Memphis by 22 or fewer AND Blazers lose AND Thunder lose
The Mavs are in the driver’s seat for the Wild Card spot in the West. If they beat Memphis, they’re almost a lock barring something insane happening where the Suns or Thunder win by such a crazy (albeit not impossible) margin that they make up more than 20 points on their differential lead. If they lose — particularly if they can avoid a blowout loss — they still have a shot if Portland loses to the Clippers (definitely possible) and the Thunder lose to the Jazz (much less likely). If those two things happen, we’ll have a logjam of 2-2 teams in those Wild Card spots and the Mavs point differential is much higher than the others currently, so barring a blowout loss to Memphis, they would likely make it in.
