Three Takeaways From Miami’s Dominant Game 1 Win In Milwaukee

The Miami Heat were considerable underdogs as the 8-seed heading to Milwaukee to take on the top-seeded Bucks, but in Game 1 they jumped all over the Bucks early and never relented on their way to a 130-117 win. The game saw both teams lose important players, with Giannis Antetokounmpo suffering a back injury on a hard fall in the first quarter and being unable to continue and Tyler Herro breaking his hand in the second quarter for Miami.

Both teams had wing stars go for big games, as Jimmy Butler was sensational with 35 points and 11 assists, while Khris Middleton had 33 points to do what he could to keep the Bucks in the game without Giannis. It was the performance of the rest of the rosters that earned Miami a win, particularly with their three-point shooting as they knocked down 60 percent of their threes compared to just 24.4 percent from deep by Milwaukee. Health looms large, as Herro’s series is over and Giannis’ status is a question mark for Game 2 and beyond. Antetokounmpo’s status, of course, will be the most important thing in how this series progresses, but here we’ll look at three non-injury takeaways from Game 1 that will play a critical role moving forward.

Bam Adebayo Showing Up Offensively

Adebayo was not a particularly big factor offensively in the Play-In games, but his role in this series is particularly crucial because of how Milwaukee defends the pick-and-roll. Because Brook Lopez is constantly in a deep drop to stop opponents from getting looks at the rim, there are a ton of opportunities for Adebayo to get the ball in the short midrange and score. On Sunday, he took those opportunities and turned them into 22 points (and seven assists) on 18 shots, as he did well to be assertive, particularly once Herro went out of the game.

Without Herro, who will miss the rest of the series, Butler needs someone to be a release valve. Butler’s playoff track record is so strong that while he might not go for 35/11 every night, it’s not unreasonable to think he can continue producing at a level fairly close to that on a regular basis in this series. That’s provided the rest of the Heat can do enough to force Milwaukee to defend the entire floor, and Adebayo represents one of the key elements to that. The floor spacers will go through hot and cold spells from three, but Adebayo can be a consistent outlet inside the arc. The question is whether he’s willing to be aggressive enough in seeking out his own shot to make Milwaukee pay for that deep drop, willing to accept a few open misses and not be deterred. If he does that, it will give Miami more dimension to their offense than being as reliant on threes falling as often they were in this one.

Is This Just What Jrue Holiday Is In The Playoffs?

We are now into our third season of Jrue Holiday being highly inefficient as a scorer in the postseason, and it’s a genuine concern for the Bucks, particularly with Giannis banged up. Middleton’s postseason excellence is expected, but unlike Butler, there’s got to be at least some worry about his ability to hold up given his knee issues if asked to be this important to the Bucks’ offensive creation. That’s where Holiday, theoretically, steps in to be an offensive leader, but he’s been a sub-40 percent shooter for two straight postseasons (and a 30.8 percent three-point shooter). On Sunday, he was once again effective as a facilitator (16 assists), but as a scorer he was predictably rough, scoring 16 points on 6-of-18 shooting (2-of-9 from three).

There is no other option for the Bucks other than playing Holiday massive minutes because of his defense and his creation for others is so important to their offense they can’t take the ball out of his hands. That said, if he’s going to shoot like this, he has to figure out how to be a more selective shooter. Holiday has had one of the stranger green lights in the league since arriving in Milwaukee, regularly pulling up for what we’ll call interesting early clock shots. That works in the regular season given the Bucks’ general dominance, but in the playoffs when their margins get tighter, it can be a real issue. Holiday was a massive reason they won the 2021 title even with his shooting woes, so it’s not something they haven’t dealt with successfully in the past, but with Giannis out, the likelihood of them overcoming nights like this from Holiday shrinks considerably.

Can The Heat Stay Hot From Three?

I’m not talking about shooting 60 percent from deep, because that’s not going to happen, but their pathway to success in this series always required them to shoot it much better than they did this regular season (34.4 percent). Kevin Love suddenly being a positive impact player was a massive boost in Game 1, as he knocked down four threes and scored 18 off the bench — although his ability to avoid being put in trouble spots on defense decreases considerably when Giannis is on the floor. Even without Love’s surprising shooting night, the rest of the Heat’s “others” all had very good nights from three.

Max Strus, Caleb Martin, and Gabe Vincent were 8-of-12 from three on the night, and they’re going to continue getting very good looks given how Milwaukee plays defense, collapsing on stars when they drive and being willing to give non-elite shooters open looks with late closeouts. This has always been the issue for Milwaukee’s defense in the postseason, but they bank on opposing teams not being able to shoot at a strong enough clip for seven games to beat them. That is usually the case, but at this point, Miami only has to do it for a few more games to make things very interesting for the top seed in the East.

On the flip side, will the Bucks find the bottom of the net from three? Brook Lopez went 0-for-3, Middleton and Holiday were a combined 4-for-16, and Jae Crowder, Bobby Portis (who was otherwise terrific), and Jevon Carter combined to shoot 0-for-11 from deep. This is far from the first time Milwaukee’s had a rough shooting night in the playoffs, and the biggest knock on them over the years has been a halfcourt offense that bogs down and struggles to knock down shots. It’s not real fun to talk about three-point variance being the biggest part of a series, because there’s not much to say other than “guys have to make shots.” But after Game 1, it really might come down to whose guys make shots.