Every NBA team has played either 80 or 81 games at this point in the 2017-18 campaign. Despite this, the playoff picture is still something of a mess: Of the 16 teams that have made the postseason at this juncture, only five (three from the Eastern Conference, two from the Western Conference) know where they will be locked in once games tip off on Saturday.
In the East, all eight teams are in, but five of them are jockeying for seeding in one way or another. The West is even worse: Seven teams are in. The No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are locked in, but the rest is a free-for-all. The final spot is down to two teams, and things are so tight with two days left in the season that either of them could end up at the No. 5 seed.
To get you prepped for the home stretch, here’s a breakdown of how the playoff picture looks in both conferences.
Eastern Conference
Playoff and seed locks: Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers
This is easy: The top-two seeds in the East are decided, while the Pacers are locked into the No. 5 seed. Indiana will take on Charlotte on Tuesday night to wrap up the year in a game that has no postseason stakes for either team. That will also be the case for Boston’s finale on Wednesday against the Nets.
However, Toronto’s final game (at Miami) and Boston’s penultimate game (at Washington) are big for seeding for their opponents. We’ll touch on those momentarily.
Playoffs locks, seed to be determined: Philadelphia 76ers, Cleveland Cavaliers, Milwaukee Bucks, Miami Heat, Washington Wizards
But first, let’s discuss the battle for the No. 3 seed between Philadelphia and Cleveland. Currently, the feisty Sixers are a half-game up on the three-time defending conference champs. They also are in total control of their destiny: Philly has two games left, whereas Cleveland has one.
PSA: The #cavs will have the tiebreaker over the #sixers if they finish in a tie. Meaning the Sixers need some combination of two Cavs losses (remaining: Knicks on Wednesday) and Sixers wins (at Hawks Tuesday, Bucks Wednesday) to clinch the 3rd seed.
— Derek Bodner (@DerekBodnerNBA) April 10, 2018
So basically, the Cavs are rooting for Philly to not win out. But if the Sixers slip up once, as long as Cleveland beats the Knicks, they’ll have the 3-seed and Philadelphia will have the No. 4. If both teams lose out, Cleveland has the three as well.
This is because the final three spots in the East are up for grabs between the Bucks, Heat, and Wizards. Here’s how things currently stack up:
6. Milwaukee Bucks, 44-37
7. Miami Heat, 43-38 (1 GB)
8. Washington Wizards, 42-38 (1.5 GB)
Every combination is possible here. The Bucks have one game left — the aforementioned contest in Philadelphia — as do the Heat, which hosts Toronto. Washington, meanwhile, hosts Boston on Tuesday before heading to Orlando to close the season on Wednesday.
The NBA sent out a handy dandy chart that visualizes everything. Unsurprisingly, the way things break down favors the Bucks, as there are 16 possible ways the 6-7-8 seeds can play out, and 11 of them involve Milwaukee sitting atop the trio. Four scenarios would include Miami as the No. 6 seed, while there’s one path for the Wizards.
Per NBA: pic.twitter.com/a5BnWny0AE
— Ira Winderman (@IraHeatBeat) April 10, 2018
Compared to what we’re facing in the Western Conference, this is nothing, but we’ll get to that momentarily.
Western Conference
Playoff and seed locks: Houston Rockets, Golden State Warriors
More easy stuff: The Rockets are going to be the top seed in the West. The Warriors are going to be the No. 2 seed. Isn’t that something?
Now let’s get to the absolute disaster that is the rest of the conference.
Playoff locks, seed to be determined: Portland Trail Blazers, Utah Jazz, New Orleans Pelicans, San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder
Just like with the Eastern Conference, let’s start with the three and four seeds here. Portland is a half game up on Utah, but the Jazz have two games left. Utah hosts Golden State on Tuesday night before traveling to Portland on Wednesday. Those are the only two teams that could possibly get the No. 3 seed.
Now, unlike the Eastern Conference, let’s dive into the fact that the rest of this is incredibly messy. Portland could fall as far as fifth, while Utah can fall as far as sixth. The remaining three teams in the West that have earned postseason spots — New Orleans, San Antonio, and Oklahoma City — can end up anywhere from fourth to eighth.
The Thunder will close out their season against Memphis on Wednesday, while the Pelicans and Spurs will face off at the same time against one another. Before we break down how things can end up, let’s get to the REALLY fun part.
Playoff status to be determined: Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets
Hell yes. With the silliness in the Western Conference, either of these teams could end up getting as high as the fifth seed. But first, they need to figure out which one of them are making the postseason in the first place.
How? Well, thanks to the people who put the NBA schedule together, we’ve got ourselves what is essentially a one-game play-in on Wednesday night. The Timberwolves will host the Nuggets with the winner making it to the postseason. Denver can’t fall any farther than the No. 7 seed, while Minnesota could end up as the No. 8.
Of course, with enough room for either team to end up as the five, you can imagine that the gigantic, color-coded chart looks like a mess. And guess what? You’d be correct!
** CORRECTED VERSION **… Via @NBAPR, here are the Western Conference playoff scenarios through games of Monday, April 9. #Twolves pic.twitter.com/G0iOG06Qji
— Timberwolves PR (@Twolves_PR) April 10, 2018
To sum this all up, make sure your schedule is free the next two nights because there’s still a whole lot that has to happen before the playoff picture is completely set, and you’re going to want to watch it all.