The last week of the NBA regular season is upon us and very few teams have locked themselves into playoff position. The chaos of the West from 4-12 is the headliner going into the final week, but there’s plenty to be decided in the East play-in race, as well as some seed shuffling potential at the top of both conferences.
It’s almost impossible to work out every scenario that’s in play for each team with three or four games left on the schedule, but what we can do is provide a quick rooting guide for each team with something still to play for. That’s exactly what we’ll do for each day of the final week of the regular season, beginning with Tuesday night’s full slate of 13 games after the league takes a night off on Monday.
WEST
1. Denver Nuggets (52-26) — Rooting Interest for 4/4: Beat the Rockets
A win over Houston and the Nuggets will lock up the 1-seed in the West by virtue of owning the tiebreaker with Memphis (2-1 head-to-head), as it would guarantee them a 3-game edge with three to play. Once that’s secure, they can do whatever they please the rest of the week and get rested if they choose.
2. Memphis Grizzlies (49-29) — Rooting Interest for 4/4: Houston (vs. Nuggets), Pelicans (vs. Kings)
Memphis gets the Blazers on Tuesday, which is nice, and while any hopes of the 1-seed likely go away since they need the Rockets to get a win, they can lock up the 2-seed with a win and a Sacramento loss in New Orleans. They split the season series with Sacramento, meaning the tiebreaker is division wins, and Memphis is 13-2 in division this season (Sacramento is just 9-6 in division).
3. Sacramento Kings (47-31) — Rooting Interest for 4/4: Blazers (at Grizzlies)
A win over New Orleans locks up the 3-seed for Sacramento (or a loss by Phoenix to the Spurs but, c’mon), but they need some help from the Blazers to have a shot at the 2-seed given the aforementioned tiebreaker situation. Pulling within one game with 3 to play opens the door, but staying a two-back would require a miracle to leapfrog Memphis.
4. Phoenix Suns (43-35) — Rooting Interest for 4/4: Thunder (at Warriors), Jazz (at Lakers), Kings (at Pelicans)
We’ve now reached the point where things get a bit interesting. Phoenix is one loss or one Kings win away from the 3-seed being out of reach, and as such I think it’s more important to them that the teams below them lose than it is to hope for an 0-4 Sacramento finish. If they beat the Spurs as expected, losses by the Warriors, Lakers, and Pelicans would lock up a top-5 seed for Phoenix, as they are 3 games up already on New Orleans and L.A., while leading Golden State by 2.5 games. The Clippers are idle, but they could go 3 games up with three to play on them by beating the Spurs.
5. Los Angeles Clippers (41-38) — Rooting Interest for 4/4: Warriors (vs. Thunder), Jazz (at Lakers), Kings (at Pelicans), Nets (vs. Timberwolves)
While Clippers fans might have the night off from watching their team, there’s plenty to be invested in. I’m of the belief that L.A. would like to get out of the 4/5 matchup against Phoenix, which is why I think their ideal scenario cares not for what the Suns do, but instead seeing the play-in teams behind them falter to open up a touch more gap from the 6- to 7-seed. Golden State beating OKC would push the Clippers down to 6th, while the Jazz and Kings winning would open up a full-game gap to the 7-seed. That’s the sweet spot for the Clippers, who won’t want to play with fire too much and risk falling into the play-in (especially since they’re not a team trustworthy enough to just flip a switch and win games), but seeing Golden State go on a run to get the 5-seed probably wouldn’t hurt their feelings.
6. Golden State Warriors (41-38) — Rooting Interest for 4/4: Jazz (at Lakers), Kings (at Pelicans), Nets (vs. Timberwolves)
Like L.A., the Warriors would love to land the 6-seed (as Draymond Green has said publicly, citing the ease of travel to Sacramento for a series). However, I also think they wouldn’t mind getting the Suns out of the way early while they’re still maybe not quite at their full form and are mostly going to be concerned with dodging the play-in. That means their interests are aligned with the Clippers in the form of rooting for Utah, Sacramento, and Brooklyn to have the play-in crew below them all drop a game, while looking to beat OKC so they can have control of their destiny going into their last two games.
7. Los Angeles Lakers (40-38) — Rooting Interest for 4/4: Thunder (at Warriors), Kings (at Pelicans), Nets (vs. Timberwolves)
If they can beat the Jazz and get a Thunder win over the Warriors, L.A. will take over the 6-seed. They’d also love to see losses from the Pelicans and Timberwolves to create a gap with those teams in the play-in hunt, but the playoffs are now firmly in the Lakers sights.
8. New Orleans Pelicans (40-38) — Rooting Interest for 4/4: Jazz (at Lakers), Thunder (at Warriors), Nets (vs. Timberwolves)
The Pelicans also could vault into sixth, but they need a bit more help. First off, they need to beat the Kings in what is undoubtedly the toughest matchup any of the play-in/playoff contenders have in the West’s congested field. Then, they need Utah and OKC to handle business on the road, which seems unlikely to happen in both spots. Still, it’s a much better position for the Pels to be in than they were a couple weeks back, and a Nets win would, at the very least, make them very happy to keep the 9-seed more than a game back no matter what happens in their game.
9. Minnesota Timberwolves (39-40) — Rooting Interest for 4/4: Jazz (at Lakers), Kings (at Pelicans), Warriors (at Thunder)
The Wolves would love to see L.A. and New Orleans slide back, where a win over Brooklyn would put them just a half-game behind the 7-seed. They don’t have a chance at the 6, so they’d also prefer to see Golden State get the job done against OKC so they have a game (or two) advantage on the 10-seed.
10. Oklahoma City Thunder (38-41) — Rooting Interest for 4/4: Nets (vs. Timberwolves), Lakers (vs. Jazz), Kings (at Pelicans)
The Nets are, by far, the Thunder’s biggest interest on Tuesday, beyond pulling an upset themselves in San Francisco. They could pull even for the 9 with both outcomes, but at the least, they’d like to see Minnesota continue floundering at just a game up on them. At 2.5 back of the 7- and 8-seed with three to play, that’s not a particularly realistic goal, which is why they’d much rather see the Jazz be put out to pasture behind them by the Lakers, while the Pelicans losing would be a marginal help to 8-seed dreams.
11. Dallas Mavericks (37-42) –– Rooting Interest for 4/4: Warriors (vs. Thunder), Lakers (vs. Jazz), Nets (vs. Timberwolves)
I’m assuming Dallas still wants to make the play-in, but honestly I’m not 100 percent positive that’s the case. We’ll work off that being the goal, and if so, their interests on an off night are very clear. An OKC loss cuts the Thunder’s lead in the standings to just a half-game for the 10-seed. A Jazz loss moves them a full game behind Dallas. And a Wolves loss puts them just 1.5 up on the Mavs for ninth. If you are a Mavs fan who just wants to be put out of your misery, just flip all these.
12. Utah Jazz (36-42) — Rooting Interest for 4/4: Warriors (vs. Thunder), Nets (vs. Timberwolves)
The Jazz will be without Walker Kessler against L.A. (and maybe the rest of the season) which is not a great sign for their chances, but if they can pull off a win over the Lakers, they’d pull even for 11th with Dallas. If they do that, a Warriors win and Nets win would put OKC and Minnesota up just 0.5 and 1.5 games apiece for the final play-in spots.
EAST
1. Milwaukee Bucks (56-22) — Rooting Interest for 4/4: 76ers (vs. Celtics)
The East, at least at the top, is much simpler. The Bucks have a two-game lead on Boston for the No. 1 seed, but the Celtics do own the tiebreaker. That means Milwaukee can clinch with three wins in their final four games, or, two wins and a Boston loss. Philly represents Boston’s test in their final four games, and is the Bucks’ best bet for building a nearly insurmountable lead for the 1-seed.
2. Boston Celtics (54-24) — Rooting Interest for 4/4: Wizards (vs. Bucks)
The Celtics can lock up a top-two seed by beating Philly, and if the Wizards can shock the Bucks at the same time, they’d pull to within a game of the top seed in the East, while holding the aforementioned tiebreaker.
3. Philadelphia 76ers (51-27) — Rooting Interest for 4/4: Magic (vs. Cavaliers)
Philly needs a minor miracle to close the three-game gap on Boston, but mostly they’ll want to keep the Cavs in the 4-seed. Cleveland is 2.5 back (3 in the loss column) and face a frisky Magic team that has been known to creep up on teams looking ahead in the second half of the season.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (49-30) — Rooting Interest for 4/4: Celtics (at 76ers)
Cleveland needs a swing on Tuesday, and a win over Orlando coupled with a Boston win would move them within striking distance of the 3-seed with just a couple games to go. They also have a 3-game edge on New York for the 4-seed,meaning all they need is one more win to secure homecourt in that potential series.
5. New York Knicks (46-33) — Rooting Interest for 4/4: Magic (vs. Cavaliers)
New York is one of four teams off on Tuesday night, but they’ll keep an eye on the Magic-Cavs game. They need a miracle to swipe the 4-seed, particularly with Cleveland’s soft closing schedule, but a loss to Orlando keeps slim hopes alive for homecourt in the first round for New York.
6. Brooklyn Nets (43-35) — Rooting Interest for 4/4: Pistons (vs. Heat)
Brooklyn’s main concern is holding serve with a win over Minnesota, but they will also hope for a shocking upset as the worst team in the league hosts Miami. Seems highly unlikely, but maybe Detroit picks a helluva time to snap a 9-game skid.
7. Miami Heat (41-37) — Rooting Interest for 4/4: Timberwolves (at Nets), Bulls (vs. Hawks), Hornets (vs. Raptors)
Miami needs to pick up two games on Brooklyn down the stretch and Tuesday should be a good opportunity to cut that down to one, given Minnesota is a team desperate for a win and Miami faces the league’s worst team. But, in a season where little seems to make sense night-to-night, that’s far from a guarantee of things going the Heat’s way. They’ll also have an eye on Hawks-Bulls and Raptors-Hornets, where they’ll hope to see a 3-way tie for the 8-seed form behind them at 39-40, clearing the way for them to guarantee a home game in the first play-in game.
8. Atlanta Hawks (39-39) –– Rooting Interest for 4/4: Hornets (vs. Raptors), Pistons (vs. Heat)
The team that has defined mediocrity this season now desperately needs a win over Chicago to avoid dropping out of the 8-seed. That is their first concern, but on the outside, they’ll be rooting for a pair of cellar-dwellers to help them out against the Raptors and Heat. It seems highly unlikely Atlanta sees things improve considerably on Tuesday, but beating the Bulls is the top priority to at least hold serve and stay in the 8-seed.
9. Toronto Raptors (39-39) — Rooting Interest for 4/4: Bulls (vs. Hawks), Pistons (vs. Heat)
The Raptors get Charlotte, who they just beat to get back to .500, and if Chicago can take down Atlanta, they’ll vault into the 8-seed. A Miami loss likewise would pull them within a game of the 7-spot, but that’s going to require a minor miracle from Detroit.
10. Chicago Bulls (38-40) — Rooting Interest for 4/4: Hornets (vs. Raptors), Pistons (vs. Heat)
A win over Atlanta and a loss by Toronto creates a 3-way tie for 8th, which is the ideal scenario for the Bulls to possibly leapfrog both squads by the end of the season to get two cracks at a playoff spot. Miami losing is icing on the cake, but the 7-seed is almost completely out of reach.
11. Orlando Magic (34-44) — Rooting Interest for 4/4: Hawks (at Bulls)
Orlando is in the Black Knight from Monty Python role in the East right now, with all four limbs cut off but technically not being dead yet. If they win out (over Cavs, Cavs, Nets, Heat) and the Bulls lose out (Hawks, Bucks, Mavs, Pistons), Orlando swipes the 10-seed based on their head-to-head tiebreaker. The road to a miracle play-in berth starts Tuesday, needing a win over Cleveland and a Hawks win in Chicago.
