2017-18 Record: 48-34 (fifth in the Western Conference)
Players Added: Grayson Allen (draft), Jairus Lyles (free agency), Naz Mitrou-Long (free agency)
Players Lost: Jonas Jerebko (waivers), David Stockton (waivers)
Projected Team MVP: Rudy Gobert
A few months from now, this could look silly if Donovan Mitchell makes the leap to uber-elite status. For now, though, Rudy Gobert is the best player on the Utah Jazz roster and, to take things a step further, is clearly the most indispensable. Yes, Mitchell will lead the team in scoring and carry the heaviest offensive workload, but Gobert almost single-handedly bolsters one of the league’s best defenses and there is immense value in that.
Gobert is on the very short list of best defensive players in the league and, even if there are potential weaknesses for him on that end during a playoff series against an elite team, his regular season impact is off-the-charts. That baseline brings immense value but, on the offensive end, it isn’t as if Gobert is a zero. He is incredibly efficient (65.7 percent true shooting last season) and, while Gobert doesn’t space the floor as a shooter, he brings vertical gravity as a dynamic lob threat that can’t be left uncovered.
For Utah to reach its ultimate ceiling in the future, Mitchell needs to be “the guy” but Gobert is the team’s centerpiece at the moment and the Jazz are very good.
Team X-Factor: Donovan Mitchell
Speaking of Mitchell, his maturation process will be incredibly interesting. There are other very intriguing pieces on this roster (Joe Ingles, Derrick Favors, Ricky Rubio, etc.) but Mitchell announced his presence with authority during an impressive rookie campaign and he isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
At the moment, the big question is just how much Mitchell can and will improve in year two. As a rookie, he averaged 20.5 points per game on reasonable efficiency (54.1 percent true shooting) and that should be lauded. However, there is a gap between that and what the top-flight scorers in the league are able to do on an annual basis and Mitchell narrowing that gap will be critical when assessing Utah’s upside.
If Mitchell simply repeats his debut campaign, this is a 50-win team. If he becomes a legitimate superstar in year two, look out.
Best Case Scenario:
The Jazz won 48 games (with a 53-win point differential) last season and that came with Gobert appearing in only 56 contests. With full health, Utah essentially played like a team that would win in the mid-50’s and, as noted above, Mitchell still has room to grow.
It has to be noted that Utah’s supporting cast, particularly in the case of Ingles, was fantastic last season but there isn’t real concern for regression after bringing the entire band back for another run. A jump to 60 wins (or so) may seem aggressive but, in all honesty, this is a pairing of roster and a head coach in Quin Snyder that appears capable of making a run at the No. 1 seed if the Golden State Warriors don’t keep the pedal on the ground over 82 games.
Worst Case Scenario:
If we assume at least reasonable injury luck, the Jazz have a very high floor. The West is, quite obviously, loaded but Utah is a cut above some of the other contenders like the Pelicans, Blazers, Spurs and Wolves at this juncture. There is obviously a scenario in which Gobert and/or Mitchell miss time but, provided one of them is available to play at a time, the damage should be minimal.
On the bottom end, the Jazz could slip out of home-court advantage and into a scenario where a first round exit is likely but, in all honesty, it is hard to envision Utah missing the playoffs unless something dire happens to one of the team’s focal points.
