It isn’t your fault, Buddy Hield.
For the rest of his NBA career, the former Oklahoma star will be judged on whether he was “enough” to be the main player in the exchange for DeMarcus Cousins. That is, of course, wildly unfair to Hield and much more of an indication the Kings’ organizational incompetence than anything else (they couldn’t even get him a respectable flight to Sacremento).
Still, rumors that the Kings front office (i.e. the owner) compares Hield favorably to players like Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson won’t make things easier on the 23-year-old shooter but, if we try to ignore the mess, there is an intriguing player underneath.
Hield is a limited prospect in that he is on the older side while simultaneously profiling as more of a specialist than a superstar. He was a knock-down shooter with unconconscious range (and shot selection) at the college level, but it is a hard sell to find another attribute in which Hield is above-average when it comes to the NBA.
Shooting is extremely important in today’s league, perhaps more than ever, but Hield will need to be an uber-elite shooter at this level in order to become even a starting-level shooting guard, much less a legitimate star.
Can he become that player? Absolutely. Buddy Hield is already shooting 37 percent from three during his rookie campaign. Beyond that, he was atrocious in October and November (23.7 percent) and, since then, Hield has converted 43 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc while attempting 4.3 per game in only 22 minutes. It remains to be seen as to whether he can sustain that efficiency level while also improving his floor game considerably, but the signs are there that he can become an effective role player in the NBA.
The term “role player” is often seen in a negative context but, in this case, it shouldn’t be. That probably should have been the evaluation all along and, if not for the foolishness that is the Sacramento Kings, Hield would have a better chance to be judged fairly in his career. Now, there is a good chance that he will be lumped in as a punchline alongside the franchise that acquired him and, based on the recent development of young wings in Sacramento, it won’t be the best environment for him to prosper and grow on the floor.
Buddy Hield hasn’t been great as a rookie and he probably won’t be great at any point in his NBA career. Let’s try to remember, though, that he didn’t force the Kings to pony up a top-15 talent in exchange for his services and it isn’t the responsibility of the rookie to suddenly become a superstar as a result of an organizational misstep.
With that said, let’s roll through the top five rookies for the 2016-2017 season as it stands at the midway point of the season:
5) Jamal Murray
This is a photo finish between Murray and Oklahoma City big man Domantas Sabonis, with Dallas Mavericks rookie point guard Yogi Ferrell closing hard on the back of a strong showing over the past couple of weeks. In terms of upside, it isn’t a close race between the three, as Murray would probably be even higher than this on a list that factored in projection. With that said, there are some issues right now.
The biggest of which is that Murray… doesn’t play defense. That was always going to be the concern for the 6’4 guard coming out of Kentucky, as he isn’t quite big enough to stand up against full-size wings or quick enough to adequately defend point guards. Some of that positional issue manifests offensively as well, but Murray’s shooting (37 percent from three) has come around a bit in February.
It says a lot about this class when a player posting an 11.3 PER with bad defense makes the top five, but Murray is already a fun offensive player and the bar is very low.
4) Willy Hernangomez
The Knicks are a mess right now but there is at least one bright spot for the future in addition to Kristaps Porzingis. Hernangomez is less heralded than his brother, Juancho, as Willy was the No. 35 overall pick in 2015 while Juancho was the No. 15 overall pick in 2016. However, the 6’11 big man from Spain has been provided with a (spotty) opportunity to contribute and he has taken full advantage recently.
Over the past 15 games, Hernangomez is averaging 10.8 points and 9.7 rebounds per game while shooting a blistering 54 percent from the floor. For the season, he is putting up 15.1 points and 13.6 rebounds per 36 minutes, and while Hernangomez likely profiles as a supporting piece, he has a very valuable skill set that a normal organization could effectively utilize in service to the star-level prospect in Porzingis.
It will be interesting to see how the Knicks treat his playing time moving forward, especially because Hernangomez has been subjected to a few too many DNP-CD’s this season. If New York deploys him consistently, watch out.
3) Dario Saric
After (finally) arriving in the United States to play out his rookie season, Dario Saric really struggled at the outset in Philadelphia. He was seen by many (myself included) as a Rookie of the Year darkhorse considering his vast level of experience abroad but Saric’s efficiency drowned in the early going and that, combined with Joel Embiid’s absurdly high level of performance, kept the 22-year-old under the radar.
In recent days, though, Saric has been tremendous. In the final 14 games before the All-Star break, the Croatian forward averaged 15.1 points and 6.1 rebounds per game. Perhaps more importantly, Saric is finally operating with a higher level of efficiency, shooting 46 percent from the floor despite continued struggles from long distance.
Because this isn’t the deepest or most talented rookie class, a few weeks of stellar production can really help and Saric actually receives more of any opportunity to shine given Embiid’s injury. When Ben Simmons returns, it will be very interesting to see what Philly’s plans are with both players that seem to be duplicative, but Saric’s rebound has gone largely unnoticed and that ends now.
2) Malcolm Brogdon
Brogdon continues to be unbelievable, especially when compared to his draft position (No. 36 overall). It exceedingly fair to suggest that the former Virginia star does not possess the overall upside of other players in this class. With that said, he is already a quality role player in the NBA and shooting 41.7 percent from beyond the three-point arc will make you a coveted asset with haste.
Is he a point guard? Is he a combo guard? There are question marks with regard to his lasting role in the league but playing next to the world’s largest point forward in Giannis Antetokounmpo has really aided in Brogdon’s short-term development. His raw numbers (9.4 points, 4.2 assists per game) won’t blow anyone away but Brogdon’s steady hand has been quite valuable for Milwaukee this season and he is already solidified as a major steal of the 2016 NBA Draft.
1) Joel Embiid
The undisputed front-runner hasn’t appeared in a game since Jan. 27 and that isn’t fun for anyone. Still, it has to be noted that Embiid would probably win the award if he didn’t participate in another game this season. He’s just been that dominant and dynamic in an otherwise unexciting rookie class.
Embiid headed into the All-Star break sporting per-game averages of 20.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.5 blocks. When accounting for the fact that the 7-footer is only playing 25.4 (!) minutes per game, those are video game-like numbers and it was fair to suggest that, if not for the way Philadelphia has managed his pre-injury workload, Embiid would be a deserving All-Star choice.
The noise about whether Embiid should even be considered a rookie based on his NBA Draft status is out there and it won’t go away. In the same breath, he qualifies under the rules and the gap between “The Process” and the rest of the 2016-2017 group remains comically large. With every passing game absence, this season’s Embiid performance loses a bit of steam when compared to the great rookie showings of the past 20 years. What it doesn’t do, though, is place the leader in any sort of peril when it comes to falling out of the top spot.
