Nobody likes chalk when it comes to the NCAA Tournament (although our full bracket picks have a decent amount of it). Yes, there is a reason that the top teams in the country are seeded as such every year, but it isn’t as much fun when the teams that are supposed to win actually have the ultimate success. With that in mind, searching for sleepers and possible upsets is a fun pastime for anyone that enjoys March Madness.
While “sleeper” can have a variety of definitions, we are eliminating every team that is seeded No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 as the tournament begins. With apologies to teams like UCLA and Oregon, they aren’t sleepers. That is the only qualifier, though, and the teams included below are fully capable of reaching the Final Four in Phoenix without any hint of fluke.
Let’s roll through the candidates, coming to you in alphabetical order.
No. 4 Florida
This wasn’t supposed to be a great Florida team and the Gators don’t have a ton of NBA talent on the floor. With that said, Florida really grinds defensively and that provides them with a chance to win each and every night. The committee did the Gators no favors with a pod that includes both Villanova and Virginia (who we will see shortly) but this is a top-five defensive team in the country according to KenPom and a top-10 team nationally in an overall sense. Keep an eye on Kasey Hill and the Gators.
No. 5 Iowa State
Veteran guards win in the NCAA Tournament and Monte Morris is the reason Iowa State cracks this list. Morris can score, but more importantly, he boasts a mind-boggling assist to turnover ratio (5.7 to 1) and the Cyclones are in safe hands on the offensive end. There are concerns about whether Iowa State can defend at a high enough level to reach Phoenix and, admittedly, they have ten losses for a reason. It would not be wise to count out Morris, though.
No. 7 Michigan
The Wolverines would not have cracked this list prior to this week but Michigan was wildly impressive in route to the Big Ten title. John Beilein’s team has senior leadership in Derrick Walton Jr. and Zak Irvin, quality bigs in Mo Wagner and DJ Wilson, and one of the five best offenses in the country. There is probably a ceiling on just how deep the maize and blue can go given their questionable defense but, despite a plane crash (yes, you’re reading that right), Michigan was able to leave their mark on the Big Ten and they are dangerous.
No. 4 Purdue
Caleb Swanigan was a legitimate National Player of the Year candidate and he leads an impressive Purdue team. There was no great shame in the Boilermakers losing a close-fought game to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament and, for the record, it was Purdue that entered the proceedings as the No. 1 seed and regular season champ. Purdue’s perimeter play isn’t dynamic and it will probably keep them from actually making the requisite run needed to reach Phoenix, but Swanigan and fellow big man Isaac Haas form a dynamic frontcourt duo that will pose problems for opponents.
No. 7 St. Mary’s
St. Mary’s lost four games this season. Three of them came to No. 1 seed and WCC rival Gonzaga. In other words, this is a very good basketball team. The Gaels aren’t littered with NBA talent in the way that Gonzaga is, but they are criminally under-seeded as No. 7 seed and that is evidenced by their No. 14 overall ranking on KenPom. It is fair to suggest that a second-round match-up against Arizona should keep St. Mary’s off this list, but the Gaels could beat the Wildcats if everything fell right and the bracket would open up should they pull off the upset. St. Mary’s isn’t the worst team on this list.
No. 6 SMU
Remember that team Larry Brown used to coach? Well, they are really good. SMU has only one loss since Nov. 30 (on the road by two points against a tournament team in Cincinnati) and the Mustangs ran away with the AAC title. While that league wasn’t fantastic this season, SMU ranks No. 11 on KenPom with top-30 units on both offense and defense and they boast high-end talent in Sterling Brown, Shake Milton and Semi Ojeleye. The Mustangs don’t play an incredibly appealing brand of basketball given their slow tempo but don’t mistake that for ineffectiveness or, in this case, inability to make a deep run.
No. 5 Virginia
Defense wins championships is a phrase you will hear repeatedly over the next three weeks. If that was true in its purest form, Virginia would be in great shape. The Cavaliers are the best defensive team in the country according to KenPom and, given that they play in the obscenely deep ACC, that is a believable mark. However, Tony Bennett’s club has a lot of trouble scoring and that will probably sink them in the tournament. That doesn’t mean, though, that Virginia will be an easy out and their top-10 overall ranking on KenPom is an indicator that, on a per-possession basis, this is a terrifying opponent for anyone.
No. 4 West Virginia
Would you believe me if I told you that the leading statistical projection (KenPom) placed West Virginia as the fifth-best team in college basketball? Well, it did. That isn’t to say that the Mountaineers should have been seeded (much) higher but it is an indicator that this is a very good basketball team. West Virginia presses like crazy, to the point where they rank second in the country in average possession length defensively. In other words, the Mountaineers create turnovers, force quick shots… or give up easy shots. When everything comes together, this is an abjectly scary basketball team and it is at least possible that Bob Huggins can have his team ready four times over a two-week span.
No. 10 Wichita State
Wichita State is a No. 10 seed and that is abject insanity. The Shockers aren’t quite as dynamic in the absence of Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet, but Gregg Marshall’s team rates No. 8 overall at KenPom for a reason. Wichita State is really good. Unfortunately, the mid-major darlings went 0-3 against their “big name” competition this season, falling to Louisville, Michigan State and Oklahoma State. Still, that trio all managed to reach the NCAA Tournament and Wichita State was dominant elsewhere to the point where they sport top-20 units on both sides of the ball. The bracket isn’t terribly favorable here, with a looming rematch with Kentucky in round two. If the Shockers can sneak past that test, though, the Final Four isn’t a crazy thought.
No. 8 Wisconsin
The top of the East Region is crazy. Villanova is a monster as the defending champion and both Florida and Virginia crack this list as legitimate sleepers. Then, you have Wisconsin. This team isn’t chalked full of NBA-caliber players like the unit led by Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky, but the Badgers have a top-10 defense and they are battle tested. It might be a reach to think that Wisconsin could reach the Final Four based on the slate ahead of them but it wouldn’t be crazy to envision Greg Gard’s team beating Villanova and either Virginia or Florida in the following round. That slow tempo will bring some highly entertaining variance.
