The NBA’s Rookie of the Year Award is not only one of the most popular postseason accolades among fans, but it arguably the most prestigious award a young player can win outside of MVP. The list of former winners ranges from Hall of Famers such as Wilt Chamberlain, Lew Alcindor (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar), and Michael Jordan to current NBA superstars like LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Tim Duncan. More often than not, the winner of the ROY award goes on to become a really good NBA player.
The incoming crop of NBA rookies looks to be one of the more promising groups in recent memory. Unlike the 2013 Draft which was looked at as an overall weak group of players, the 2014 Draft was looked at as arguably the strongest since 2003; the same draft that produced James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, and Chris Bosh. If that wasn’t enough, last year’s No. 6 overall pick, Nerlens Noel, is considered a rookie after sitting out all of last year as he recovered from a torn ACL.
To put it in its simplest terms, this year’s rookie class is loaded with future stars, and a number of them are in a position to succeed early in their professional careers.
Last season, Sixers guard Michael Carter-Williams ran away with the award, but a nearly unanimous vote in 2014-2015 seems highly unlikely. There’s just too much talent in this crop. With that in mind, here are 10 NBA rookies who have a shot at winning this award, ranked in ascending order of the likelihood they win.
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10. Nick Johnson – SG, Houston Rockets
The only reason Nick Johnson fell to the second round of the NBA Draft is because of his size. He has first round talent, but ended up getting drafted into the perfect situation with the Rockets.
The Rockets have had a tumultuous offseason thus far, striking out in their attempts to lure another superstar to team up with Dwight Howard and James Harden. The team had to part ways with backup point guard Jeremy Lin to clear cap space, which leaves a glaring hole in the team’s backcourt. Cue Johnson, who has the versatility to play point guard if need be for short stretches, even if his natural position is shooting guard. Losing Lin hurts the Rockets depth, but it also allows Kevin McHale to play the former Arizona Wildcat more often.
Johnson is an athletic monster who will be an immediate contributor defensively for Houston. In McHale’s up-tempo system, Johnson should be able to get up and down the floor, leading to easy transition buckets. If he can knock down his three-point attempts on a semi-regular basis, it’ll be tough to keep him on the bench.
Johnson isn’t going to put up eye-popping numbers, but he has a chance to be a valuable role player on a Western Conference contender from the get-go.
2014-2015 Stats Prediction: 7.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.1 assists per game
9. Dante Exum – PG, Utah Jazz
Dante Exum is still a complete mystery. Before Summer League, he hadn’t played a competitive game in nearly 12 months, and it showed in his Las Vegas performance. Exum displayed flashes of the enormous potential scouts had been drooling about all summer, but they were few and far between. In five games, he averaged just 7.2 points per game while shooting a horrific 31 percent from the field.
Exum should continue to improve as he gets back into the flow of the competitive game, but taking 12 months off for any player is a tough obstacle to overcome, but it’s especially hard for a player making the leap to the NBA after playing in a smaller Australian league beforehand.
Exum has all the tools to be a dynamic point guard at this level. At 6-6, Exum towers over most point guards and he’s a terrific athlete. His first step is as quick as any other rookie’s, and that combined with an arsenal of dribble moves makes him nearly impossible to stay in front of. Exum is best in the open court, where he can finish with either hand at the rim or dish it to his open teammate.
Despite these unbelievable athletic gifts, Exum is still a work in progress, and it might get ugly at times early in the season. He’s in for a big surprise when it comes to the strength, physicality, and speed of the NBA game, and it may cause him to struggle. When Exum does figure it all out though, he has a chance to be a special player, and could put up some solid numbers for a Jazz team that desperately needs another scorer.
2014-2015 Stats Projection: 9.1 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists per game
8. Cleanthony Early – SF, New York Knicks
The Knicks got the steal of the draft when they scooped up Wichita State’s Cleanthony Early with the No. 34 pick. Early is about as NBA-ready of a prospect as they come, and he fills a major need for the team.
Derek Fisher is looking to implement the triangle system in New York, which requires shooters in the corners to keep the high post area open. As a team, the Knicks shot 37 percent from beyond the arc, but having too many shooters is never a bad thing. Early’s biggest contribution may come from his abilities on the other side of the court though, as the Knicks need a lock-down perimeter defender and Early has the length and athleticism to be a plus defender on the professional level.
Much like Johnson in Houston, Early ended up falling into an ideal situation with the Knicks. He won’t be relied on as a go-to scorer, but he’ll have plenty of opportunities to go after his defender in isolation situations. Look for Early to get his fair share of offensive rebounds and put-backs as well, which will only add to his stat line.
2014-2015 Stats Projection: 8.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists per game
Click here for more rookie rankings…
7. Marcus Smart – PG, Boston Celtics
It’s still unclear whether the Celtics took Marcus Smart to be the team’s point guard of the future or to be Rajon Rondo’s backcourt running mate, but either way, he’s going to get a lot of burn in his rookie season.
Unlike other rookies, Smart isn’t going to struggle with the physicality of the NBA game. He’s built like an ox, and might actually be one of the stronger guards in the Eastern Conference from the first time he steps on the floor. Despite weighing 220 pounds, Smart is quick enough to get past defenders on the perimeter. He does a really good job of using his body to seal off defenders, allowing him to wreak havoc in the lane.
The Celtics may have re-signed Avery Bradley to a four-year extension this summer, but he doesn’t offer nearly as much offensive versatility as Smart does. Smart may start alongside Rondo or come off the bench as the C’s sixth man, but coach Brad Stevens will be looking for the No. 6 overall pick in this year’s draft to be in attack mode every time he steps on the court. Boston finished with the league’s 26th worst scoring offense in 2013-2014, and Smart looks to be a major part of that half of the court’s turnaround.
2014-2015 Stat Projection: 10.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists per game
6. PJ Hairston – SG, Charlotte Hornets
PJ Hairston’s off-court record is definitely sketchy, but his on-court production cannot be questioned. After being kick off UNC last year, Hairston went to the D-League where he averaged 18.3 points per game. Anyone who thought that production was a fluke was proved wrong when he went on to average 18 points per game at the NBA’s Summer League.
Hairston joins a Charlotte team in desperate need of another scorer. The Hornets finished 23 in the league in points per game last year, but got little to no scoring production from the shooting guard, small forward, and power forward positions. Point guard Kemba Walker and center Al Jefferson shouldered most of the scoring load, but that’s about to change in 2014-2015. The Hornets went out and signed Lance Stephenson to a three-year deal, and both he and Hairston can be major contributors to the team offensively. Stephenson is coming off a career year in Indiana in which he averaged 13.8 points per game, and Hairston has the size and strength to play either the two or the three.
A Hornets lineup of Walker, Stephenson, Hairston, rookie Noah Vonleh and Jefferson is significantly more dangerous offensively than the lineup of Walker, Gerald Henderson, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Josh McRoberts, and Jefferson was.
The Hornets should contend for a top-four seed in the East this year, and the major reason behind that is the team’s improvements offensively. Hairston will likely come off the bench to start the season, but could end up being on of the Hornets leading scorers.
2014-2015 Stat Projection: 12.1 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists per game
5. Julius Randle – PF, Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are going to need a plethora of miracles to occur if they’re going to have any shot at competing in the Western Conference, but being on a bad team just means more opportunities for young players to shine. In this case, it’s an opportunity for Julius Randle to prove to the world why the Lakers used the No. 7 pick on him in June’s draft.
Despite using their top pick on Randle, the Lakers created a bit of a logjam in the frontcourt. Not only did the team re-sign Jordan Hill, but they brought in Carlos Boozer from the Chicago Bulls. Center Robert Sacre was one of only three Lakers under contract heading into next year as well. What once looked like Randle’s starting job is now up for grabs, but there’s no doubt about which one of those four big men possess the most potential. It’s Randle, and he’s going to get a chance to show it whether or not he ends up being the starting four for Los Angeles.
Randle’s face-up game is further along than his back-to-the-basket post game, but his lefty hook is already a dangerous, and reliable weapon. Like Marcus Smart, Randle is already capable of handling the physicality of the NBA game, which should help him adjust to the speed of the game quicker than some other prospects.
What works in Randle’s favor is that there just aren’t many players on the Lakers that will be looking to take shots. Outside of Kobe Bryant and Nick Young, no player averages more than 10 shot attempts per game.
Randle could very well be the team’s most explosive post scorer already, and there will be plenty of opportunities for him to get his shots, especially if he crashes the offensive glass as hard as he did at Kentucky.
2014-2015 Stat Projection: 12.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists per game
4. Doug McDermott – SF/Chicago Bulls
Doug McDermott’s days of averaging 25-plus points per game are over, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a really solid contributor on a good team. With the return of Derrick Rose and the signing of Pau Gasol, the Chicago Bulls’ offense looks significantly better on paper than it did last year. The only thing missing was a deadeye three-point shooter, though. That’s why the team traded up five spots in the draft to select college basketball’s best sharpshooter.
McDermott averaged 18 points per game in four summer league appearances, and made it look easy. His jumper can compete with just about anyone in the world, and he’s going to get a ton of open looks from the corners with Rose attacking the rim and Gasol drawing double-teams on the block. The Bulls finally have enough offensive weapons around the court that teams won’t be able to sag in the paint anymore, which will give McDermott some chances to attack defenders with limited help defense. He may not be able to break down his defender as consistently as he did at Creighton, but scorers find ways to get points, and there just aren’t many players who understand how to score better than McDermott.
While other players may flourish individually as rookies, McDermott is going to thrive as part of the Bulls’ system. Getting open is a skill that gets taken for granted too often, but McDermott has mastered the art of it. He’s going to find open areas of the court to get off his jumper. He’s going to take advantage of lazy defenders with backdoor cuts to the rim. He’s going to be there for the dump-off when his man leaves to help on a Rose drive. He’s going to get his points, one way or another.
2014-2015 Stat Projections: 13.3 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists per game
Click here for our top three Rookie of the Year candidates…
3. Andrew Wiggins – SF, Minnesota Timberwolves
Andrew Wiggins was the No. 1 overall pick for a reason. He has tremendous potential with a skill-set suited perfectly for the NBA. Although the Cleveland Cavaliers were the team to select Wiggins, he’ll play out his rookie season in Minnesota alongside fellow rookie Zach LaVine, last year’s No. 1 overall pick Anthony Bennett, and one of the league’s best assist artists in Ricky Rubio. Cleveland would have been a nice fit for Wiggins, but he’ll get the opportunity to showcase his skill-set more in Minnesota as one of the top dogs.
Wiggins has the potential to be an absolute stud in the NBA. He’s one of the most dynamic athletes to ever put on a pair of basketball shoes and his game translates much better to the open court NBA game than it did to the slower-paced college game. Wiggins’ jumper is still a work in progress and his ball handling needs refinement, but coaches can teach him that. What they can’t teach is the type of athleticism he already possesses. His second jump is ridiculously quick, he can finish at, and usually above, the rim, and has a deadly spin move that should become a constant fixture on “SportsCenters’” Top 10. On top of that, he has all the attributes of a lock-down perimeter defender.
Wiggins will benefit from playing with Rubio, who is widely regarded as one of the top passers in the game. If Wiggins can get open, Rubio will get him the ball. As long as Wiggins is near the rim, he should be able to use his freakish athleticism to score.
Without Kevin Love, the Timberwolves will be looking for other players to make up for the absence of his 25 points per game, and Wiggins is the first candidate on that list. Flip Saunders is going to design a lot of sets to get Wiggins attacking the rim and his teammates will look to feed him the ball early and often. Wiggins is the type of rookie that might get off to a shaky start in his rookie season as he adapts to the NBA game, but could end up being one of the top rookies in the class by the end of the season. He has that much talent.
If Wiggins can develop even a remotely consistent perimeter jumper – something he did near the end of his freshman season – he’ll be a dangerous scorer from the get-go for his team. Don’t be surprised when he finishes either first or second on Minnesota in points per game as a rookie.
2014-2015 Stat Projection: 16.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists per game
2. Nerlens Noel – C, Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers have already punched their ticket for the NBA lottery again next season, and the chances they compete for a playoff spot in 2014-2015 are slim to none. The talent just isn’t there yet for the Sixers, but it’s not necessarily a bad thing. Because the team is going to be so bad next year, Nerlens Noel, last year’s No. 6 overall pick, is going to have the freedom to do as he chooses. He’ll be Philadelphia’s top post scorer, defensive anchor, and looks to be one of the team’s cornerstones of the future.
Coming out of Kentucky in 2012, Noel’s post game was extremely raw. His only real method of scoring was dunking the ball, but that’s not necessarily the case anymore. His post game is far from a finished product, but he showed flashes of a developing jump hook during the summer league that should give all Sixers fans hope. Noel has the size and athleticism to be an effective big, but he lacked the refined skill. Seeing glimpses like that have to be an encouraging sign moving forward. The most impressive thing Noel showed during the summer league was his ability to finish around the rim. Reigning Rookie of the Year Michael Carter-Williams loves to use high pick-and-rolls, and Noel proved he could be an effective roll man in those type of situations.
Defensively, there aren’t any worries about Noel. He was an elite shot blocker in college, and has the natural instincts to be an effective one on the NBA level as well.
The more the 76ers stink, the more opportunities Noel is going to have to showcase his skills. By the end of next season, Carter-Williams and Noel might just be looked at as one of the best, young guard/center duos in the league.
2014-2015 Stat Projection: 14.5 points/9.2 rebounds/1.2 assists per game
1. Jabari Parker – SF, Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks offseason was full of change – new owners, a new head coach, and a new face of the franchise in Jabari Parker. Of all the rookies in this year’s class, no one is in a better position to succeed than Parker.
The Bucks needed a dynamic scorer after finishing last season with the third worst offense in the league. Parker, who averaged 19.1 points as a freshman at Duke last season, is arguably the most NBA ready rookie in this year’s class. He can do it all offensively, whether it’s hitting perimeter jumpers, taking his man off the dribble, finishing at the rim, or scoring from the post. This guy can do it all.
Jason Kidd plans on using Parker at the stretch-four position at times this year, which would cause matchup nightmares for opposing defenses. Parker is clever enough with the ball in his hands to break down bigger, slower defenders, and at 6-8, 235 pounds, he’s too physical in the post for smaller wings.
Had Parker been allowed to skip college and go straight to the NBA, he probably could have averaged 12 points per game last year. With a year of coaching from Mike Krzyzewski under his belt, it won’t be long before Parker is lighting up the scoreboard on the NBA level.
There’s a really good chance he’ll end up being the Bucks top offensive option from the first game of the season, and there just aren’t many players who can score as well as Parker can.
2014-2015 Stat Projection: 19.1 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists
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