Whether or not fans in southern Texas like to hear it, the San Antonio Spurs are headed toward a crossroads at which they’ll have to come to one of the hardest decisions in franchise history: What are they to do with Tim Duncan?
Although Duncan and the men in black were world champions just four years ago, it has become increasingly evident that Duncan is beginning to fade. At age 35, who can blame him? The Big Fundamental’s minutes have been limited the last two years in an effort to save his energy for the playoffs, a strategy that has led to an increased offensive tempo in the River City.
Although his minutes have decreased, the statistics on Duncan show a star fading in efficiency. Duncan’s PER had been in the mid-24 range for the last three years until 2010-11 when it dipped to 21.9 – nothing to sneeze at to be sure, but cause for concern.
For comparison, at similar points in their careers, the efficiency of two other Hall of Famers in Karl Malone and Kevin McHale began to drop as well. When Malone was 35 in 2002-03 his PER was respectable at 21.7. The next year it dropped to 17.8 despite his usage rate tumbling a full 9%. That means that despite having less pressure on him to be the mainstay in an offense, Malone still wasn’t able to produce as a player in the same efficient manner he had in years past. Although McHale’s usage rate only took a 3% drop when he turned 36 in 1992-93 his PER dropped a full 4 points to just 14.4, the lowest of his career.
Both Malone and McHale retired after the next season.
I asked Pounding the Rock‘s Justin Biehle about when he thought Duncan might retire and he wrote me a two-part answer via e-mail interview: “I’d honestly say I think he’ll be around for at least two more years. But if the Spurs are fortunate enough to claim another title in the coming season I wouldn’t be surprised to see him ride into the sunset while on top.”
Whether the Spurs are able to press the issue for a championship next season is a quandary all in itself. The Spurs were ousted last year by the upstart Memphis Grizzlies in just the first round and after Tony Parker‘s alleged lack of confidence in the Spurs’ ability to challenge for a ring next year, the final bell may have tolled on the boys in black. Whether or not Parker is a part of the roster was a sticking point for Biehle.
“If Duncan feels that Parker is integral to championship success but is traded away before or during a season in which the Spurs don’t win it all, I wouldn’t be surprised if Duncan hangs ’em up for good,” wrote Biehle via e-mail interview.
Yet Spurs General Manager R.C. Buford isn’t ready to move away from the Duncan era just yet. Common opinion is that the Spurs are fully committed – “all in” if you will – to winning a championship within the next two seasons. Gregg Popovich and the crew in San Antonio have been an inspiration for talent development and stability over the course of the last decade and they aren’t looking to make rash decisions just yet.
“They’re not going to get rid of promising young players for one year rentals. The front office has a responsibility to have one eye on the present while planning for the future,” wrote 48 Minutes of Hell‘s Andrew McNeill in an e-mail interview.
Indeed, Biehle agreed that the management staff for the Spurs has been extremely patient leading the fans in Texas to adjust to the fact that their team may not be involved in the big free agent trades and signings during the offseason even as the clock continues to chime on Duncan’s career.
“Fortunately, unlike a lot of other management staffs throughout the league, the Spurs will never mortgage their future success in an effort to win ‘right this second’. Sometimes it’s hard to be patient, even if your team’s management has proven [waiting] works time and again,” added Biehle.
That strategy may not pay off for the Spurs. Whether or not the core of Parker, Ginobili and Duncan stays together over the course of the next two years is a serious question. Although Buford traded backup point guard George Hill in what appeared to be a vote of confidence in Tony Parker, if Duncan’s production or health becomes an issue you’ve got to think that Spurs management won’t sit on an aging Parker, their most valuable trade chip.
Rebuilding the Spurs franchise is something no one in San Antonio is looking forward to. When Duncan was drafted in 1997 he was a surprise addition to future Hall of Famer David Robinson. The Spurs lost Robinson to a season-ending injury in 1996, leading to a terrible season with the third-worst record in the league. The Spurs beat the draft lottery odds to get Duncan and there’s little chance they end up in that situation again.
Really, the Spurs will most likely be a team in flux come five years time. Duncan will most assuredly be out of the league and on his way to a first-ballot Hall of Fame election. In the meantime, the front office with a view of the Alamo will have to consider the long-term effects of their decisions through free agency and the next two drafts.
R.C. Buford has been one of the smartest men in NBA management and there’s little chance he lets the Spurs fall from grace entirely, even as Duncan begins to fade. Although San Antonio is home to one of my favorite dive bars of all-time, Texan II, both McNeill and Biehle agreed that Buford wouldn’t let the franchise see the bottom of the barrel in coming years. McNeill wrote me explicating as such:
“You can practically write it in pen that “RC and the boys” will get the most out of it. With a front office that has gotten so much value from later picks, the franchise’s future is in good hands.”
When Duncan retires, he’ll have left a legacy of rings and consistency the likes that this league has never seen before. There’s a strong argument to be made that he’s the greatest power forward of all-time. However, the Spurs and Duncan were mated for the length of his career because the front office in San Antonio was just as consistent as Tim was. When he leaves the Spurs organization will be no different than when he arrived. It may take some time to field Duncan’s replacement but the Spurs are sure to be one of the small-market teams that will succeed after losing their franchise player.
In the meantime, it looks as though the Spurs won’t be panicking just yet.
What are your expectations for the Spurs in the next five years?
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