It’s said every season, but 2015 is off to a crazy start in the NFL. Not only did the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Oakland Raiders beat more reputable outfits in the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens, but they looked like legitimate football teams doing it. The Ravens and the Seattle Seahawks are 0-2, but the 2-0 Dallas Cowboys may be the presumed playoff contender sweating the most after the second Sunday of the season, facing the prospect of playing months of football without any of the offensive trinity that took them to the postseason last year.
DeMarco Murray is in Philadelphia now, though he probably misses the Cowboys and their offensive line more than Dallas misses him at this point. The far more pressing concerns are the foot of Dez Bryant, now expected to take until December to heal, and the collarbone of Tony Romo, which will hold him out at least eight weeks. Jason Witten sprained both ankles on Sunday, but he hasn’t missed a start since 2004, and he might be a Terminator at this point. The point is, one of the best offenses of 2014 simply doesn’t exist anymore.
And yet, the Cowboys are still 2-0, and of their NFC East rivals, only Washington has joined them in the win column so far (with an eye-popping victory over the Rams, who had beaten the Seahawks in Week 1). The path to the division title is wide open for any of these four teams, and in purely mathematical terms, the Cowboys have the inside track. But in order to keep it, they actually have to win a couple of games with Brandon Weeden at quarterback.
It's entirely possible Dallas will sign a QB for depth. But if there's one thing you should know about these coaches: they like their guys.
— David Helman (@davidhelman_) September 21, 2015
Weeden’s only ever been a ghastly QB since he came into the league, but he’s never played behind an offensive line as good as the one in Dallas. He was 7-for-7 in relief of Romo on Sunday, with a long touchdown pass on a simple slant route to Terrance Williams. He won’t be perfect, but maybe he can approach competence with enough time to throw, and facing defenses geared up to stop a run game that has been solid in the first two games. The competence gap between Williams and Dez Bryant is probably smaller than Weeden and Romo, but it also bumps every other Cowboys wideout up a spot in the depth chart, and that leaves 5’8 Cole Beasley as the second wide receiver.
The way forward on offense is probably to bulk up. Witten, provided his ankles allow him to play, is clearly the most reliable pass catcher, and his backup, Gavin Escobar, has shown real talent. Double-tight end sets, which can match up better against loaded fronts, are still viable passing packages with the talent the Cowboys have at the position. Still, this strategy probably tops out as “palatable,” which is a far cry from what could have been this year.
A severely limited offense is not going to be enough for the Cowboys to take a couple of games from a stretch of opponents that includes the Seahawks, Patriots and Falcons. The defense, which surpassed all expectations last season by being average instead of abysmal, needs to take another step up, and some signs point to real promise in that area.
Last year, ProFootballFocus ranked the Cowboys’ defense 18th of 32 teams, which was good enough when paired with the top-ranked offense. Through two games, they’re ranked fifth overall. The sample size is so small that it’s nearly meaningless, but Dallas’ front lived in the Eagles’ backfield all afternoon on Sunday. After the next two games, Greg Hardy and Rolando McClain will return from suspension. McClain was the surprise of last season as the linchpin of the defense, and he’ll make a dangerous combo with the finally healthy (for now) Sean Lee in the middle. Greg Hardy was a dominant pass rusher in 2012 and 2013, and after his domestic assault kept him out all of 2014, he could come back rusty, or he could come back fresh and transform the defense. Pass rushing is the closest thing the NFL has to an equalizer.
It’s not all good news on the defensive side, however. Slot corner Orlando Scandrick is already out for the season. The two offenses the Cowboys have faced so far have been plagued by inconsistency, and not just when facing Dallas. Many of the offenses ahead on the schedule promise to be much better. But maybe Rod Marinelli continues to be a wizard and the suspended reinforcements take the D into the stratosphere. It wouldn’t be that big of a surprise.
The most important factor for Dallas’ chances at staying afloat until Romo and Bryant come back remains the rest of the NFC East, however. The Cowboys will face both the Eagles and Giants again before then, and those will be the most crucial games for their playoff hunt. But in general, the other three NFC East teams still have games to make up on Dallas, and they need to show that they’re capable of doing so before anyone buries the Cowboys. After all, the Panthers only needed seven wins to make the playoffs last year. As the NFL teaches us every week, anything is possible.
