Way back when the New England Patriots were just 3-0, and we were so innocent and Peyton Manning still resembled the general framework of a functional NFL quarterback, I figured it would be fun to time travel through the next few weeks and see what the immediate future held for Tom Brady and the Gillette Gang. Just a little thought experiment to see whether the Pats could pull off another 2007 and run the table to the Super Bowl. Crazy, right? Well, anything seemed possible back then and I was hopped up on allergy meds.
As I went week to week, mostly taking into account the pass defense of New England’s opponent, it became pretty clear that the first real test would come in Week 12 in Denver. A road game against the No. 1 pass defense might be too much for Touchdown Tom, I guessed. The elements, the possibility of an opposing quarterback that could equal Brady, coming off a short week, it was all too much, I guessed:
If this was in New England, it’d maybe be a 51-49 lean to the Pats. But in the high altitude of Denver, against a longtime rival who’s out to prove he can still compete at the highest level, this one will be tough for even the Pats to overcome. This could be 38-34 or 20-17 and I wouldn’t be surprised either way, but I think Denver comes through a winner.
Hey, what do you know! Denver won by one score, 30-24, and New England is now 10-1. How could I possibly explain such crack prognosticating?
What I didn’t count on were a few circumstances out of anyone’s foresight. First, the idea that Manning would completely fall apart and force Denver to put this team in the perhaps-capable hands of Brock Osweiler is still not something I’ve come to fully accept. Nonetheless, there was the 6’8 Osweiler managing yet another close win when Denver’s defense gave him a chance. His 39-yard pass to Emmanuel Sanders with 1:30 left in regulation forced the Pats to start playing the clock game and eventually set up the go-ahead score on a fade route to Andre Caldwell three plays later.
Osweiler has thrown for 666 yards over two and a half games since replacing Manning, kept the offense moving, and let backs like C.J. Anderson (113 rushing yards and two scores) play a more vital role in head coach Gary Kubiak’s schemes. Denver’s defense, which held New England to just 301 net yards, is so good that Osweiler only needs to a) not make critical mistakes that can tire said elite defenders, b) let the rushing game do what it does, and c) mix in enough pass completions to keep the opposing defense honest. So far, so good, and now the Broncos are 9-2 and three games up in the AFC West.
Another unexpected thing: A whole smattering of penalties and injuries going against the Patriots. The biggest personnel loss was, of course, tight end Rob Gronkowski, but it looks as if he dodged a knee injury that could’ve ended his season. But he still wasn’t on the field in the final few minutes, and Brady didn’t have enough weapons to keep the Broncos at bay after his sudden departure. Sure, Brady got the Pats in position for a game-tying 47-yarder from Stephen Gostkowski as time expired, but New England looked lost after receiving the ball for the opening possession of overtime, going three-and-out and punting from the 13 after a Von Miller sack. Denver only needed three plays and the game was over after Anderson’s 48-yard scamper.
But some of the penalty calls against New England were simply atrocious. The two that stand out most would be the “offensive pass interference” on Gronkowski with five minutes to play. Instead of putting together a drive to eat some clock with a four-point lead, New England was forced to punt from deep in their own end simply because Gronkowski is otherworldly strong.
And the holding call on Patrick Chung in the end zone with 1:15 left in regulation seemed hilariously non-existent. It even moved Bill Belichick to actual, human emotions.
That being said, let’s acknowledge that referees make bad calls in literally every single NFL game and that, in spite of what occurred Sunday night, New England is still four games up in the AFC East with five to play. Sure, they’re now only a game up on Denver and Cincinnati (both 9-2) for the No. 1 seed and AFC home-field advantage. But if the Pats finish the season 14-2 — as I also predicted in early October and which still seems eminently doable — then they’ll most likely get that top seed and the road to suburban Santa Clara will ride through Foxborough.
New England is going to be fine, Denver is going to be fine, Brock Osweiler and Tom Brady will both be fine, and the AFC pecking order will be fine. This game did little to upset the inner dynamic of the conference or the NFL, save for the fact that now only the unstoppable Carolina Panthers (11-0) can save us from the 1972 Dolphins.
But if anything must be gleaned from this mildly surprising upset, it’s that Denver won’t go quietly in that mile-high night and that New England is capable of losing one game. Whether it loses another is anyone’s guess. (Even mine.)
