Who are the players that are poised to make or break their team’s postseason chances? Can this year’s Cinderella teams do some damage? Is there such a thing as “clutch?” The MLB playoffs bring the promise of excitement but also a lot of questions. And that’s natural. For all its value as a distraction and a months-long emotional roller coaster, a full season of baseball can make it seem like everything and nothing is evident when seeking out answers to those (and other) baseball questions.
As baseball fans, we’re all compelled to weigh in with shoddy guesswork, but MLB Tonight analysts Al Leiter, Harold Reynolds, Bill Ripken, and John Smoltz offer unique insight. Call it a fringe benefit of having spent a combined 64 years as Major League ballplayers resulting in three World Series rings (two for Leiter and one for Smoltz), and one Hall Of Fame plaque (Smoltz). In search of their expertise, Uproxx Sports ventured to MLB Network headquarters in Secaucus, New Jersey ahead of the Wild Card round to speak with the guys and get their thoughts on playoff baseball (but not their predictions).
The Teams
That the Cubs, Indians, Nationals, Dodgers, Astros, and Red Sox are in the playoffs should not come as a surprise. Granted, there were mid to low level struggles that each had to overcome. The Nationals and Red Sox wrestled with lengthy injuries to key players, the Cubs and Indians were hovering around .500 in the early days of summer, and the Dodgers dealt with an epic swoon in August and September that knocked them off of a record-setting pace for wins in a season. But all were in or near the playoffs in 2016 and represented trendy picks to win their divisions and/or make the playoffs in 2017.
The Yankees were on the cusp of that same status with a rebuild that seemed as though it might quickly yield results. Still, a 91-win season and a near-division title on the strength of Aaron Judge’s 52 home runs (four fewer than he hit in his three-year minor league career) might have seemed optimistic in April. But maybe not as optimistic or far-fetched as playoff berths for a Twins team that lost 103 games in 2016, a Diamondbacks team that lost 93, and a Rockies team that lost 87.
While those robust turnarounds were hard to see coming, they all add a little “Cinderella Story” magic to the 2017 playoffs and the possibility that those teams may play the role of spoiler against the postseason’s anointed favorites.
“The Yankees and the D-backs, they probably could match up with a lot of teams that they run up against in the postseason,” Bill Ripken told Uproxx. “Granted, they gotta get through the way it sets now — a one-game scenario — but if they do that, I think both of those teams are dangerous.”
Ripken saw the AL East as a crapshoot coming into the season with “four possible teams that could win it and four possible teams that could’ve finished probably third, fourth, or fifth.” He cites the Yankees’ decision to roll with Judge as their starting right fielder on Opening Day (despite a thin and uninspiring big league track record) and catcher Gary Sanchez’ emergence as reasons for their success. But he also acknowledges the wisdom of that age-old adage about pitching winning championships. (So much so that he believes the Nationals’ intimidating three-headed monster of a rotation — Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and Gio Gonzalez — makes them the favorite in the National League.)
“Do [the Yankees] have enough on the starting side, would be, I guess, their big question? Because once it gets to the bullpen, I think they certainly have enough to get it done.”
Al Leiter agrees with his MLB Tonight colleague when it comes to the Yankees bullpen which was solidified by a July trade with the White Sox for former Yankees closer David Robertson and reliever Tommy Kahnle (as well as Todd Frazier). “[Luis] Severino’s been a terrific story. Yes, Aaron Judge is great and Gary Sanchez is great, but it’s about their bullpen.”
Leiter cites Robbie Ray’s emergence and the one-two punch he provides with Zach Greinke in the Diamondbacks’ rotation as a reason why they’re “scary” going into the postseason. Leiter respects the importance of a bullpen in the playoffs (the Indians and Cubs pretty much made that a requirement after last year’s World Series), but believes that momentum is only as strong as your two best starting pitchers.
Harold Reynolds also sees the Diamondbacks as a formidable team, comparing Ray to Royals starter Danny Duffy and acknowledging the impact of adding outfielder JD Martinez (who hit 29 home runs in 62 games following his trade from the Tigers) to the lineup alongside perennial NL MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt.
“You expected them to be somewhat good. You knew Greinke could pitch, but the addition of JD Martinez has been beyond what you thought. Man, they’ve had a lot of players come on. Their pitching has been great.”
The Players
Baseball can’t match the theater of the Lebron James/Steph Curry NBA Finals rivalry. There are, however, opportunities for any of the above baseball players and others to snatch a rare kind of immortality by putting their team on their back or otherwise coming up huge in the clutch.
Whose the next Andrew Miller? That shutdown reliever who can shorten vital games. Maybe it’s Miller again, or David Price, who is being deployed out of the Red Sox bullpen in the playoffs this year. How about the next big game starter? Someone in the mold of Jon Lester or, really, John Smoltz.
Maybe it takes a certain kind of attitude. Ripken says no one had doubts about Chris Sale’s ability to mentally process the switch from the perpetually middling White Sox in Chicago to the intense atmosphere at play in Boston with the Red Sox. He’s a large personality, of course. You don’t break out a pair of scissors to protest wearing a throwback jersey if you’re meek. In his first trip to the postseason, maybe Sale will take the Red Sox as far as Lester twice did.
It’s obviously Aaron Judge’s first go around too. Is he going to be able to slay all the pinstriped ghosts and expectations to become the next Mr. October or Mr. November 2.0? In terms of his demeanor, Bill Ripken says Judge already reminds him of Jeter (the aforementioned Mr. November).
“How he answers questions, how he’s thoughtful and humble. Is he gonna be able to have a good run in the postseason and really make this year extra special? Because it’s pretty special as it is.”
Leiter is similarly impressed with Judge and wants to see him win the AL MVP (despite his affinity for Astros second baseman Jose Altuve and Angels center fielder Mike Trout) in addition to the AL Rookie Of The Year because it makes for a good story.
“Aaron Judge is as exciting as any player that I’ve seen in a long time. An imposing figure. A big man that not only hits home runs but he does a lot of other things… gets on base, plays defense very well… very plus strong arm in the outfield, runs the bases well. This is a good baseball player.”
While Sale has the kind of swagger that warrants attention and Judge is a megawatt talent with a game-changing bat beaming out from the media capital of the world, the MLB Tonight crew sees possible blooming greatness in a lot of places.
Harold Reynolds thinks Twins center fielder Byron Buxton could become a household name during the postseason if he gets the chance and feels that Nationals star right fielder Bryce Harper (who just returned from a nearly month-and-a-half long DL stint due to a knee injury) could be ready to ascend to another level. Names like Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner and Astros shortstop Carlos Correa come up when discussing possible postseason difference makers with Leiter.
One thing all these players have in common is that they’re trying to accomplish something that the Indians and Cubs did last year and both of those teams are still stacked with players that have excelled in the postseason.
“Where would [the Indians] be without Jose Ramirez? [He’s] been phenomenal. I know they have great pitching but Ramirez has been an amazing story with Kipnis going down,” says Leiter. Ramirez has another fan in Ripken (who says he should be in the conversation for MVP), but wants to make sure his teammate, Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, gets some love.
“Everything that he does at short. What he does at home plate. He can get on base, he can steal, he can hit the ball out of the ballpark. I mean, he can pretty much do anything that you’d want.”
While Ripken is high on Lindor (and Ramirez), he’s also impressed by Indians starting pitcher Corey Kluber who, he says, “set the bar pretty high” by starting three of the seven games in last year’s World Series. Kluber has only added to those expectations by having another Cy Young caliber season in 2017, leading the majors in ERA. And with his track record, it’s clear he won’t wilt under pressure or resist the chance to take the ball with the season in jeopardy.
First baseman Anthony Rizzo and third baseman Kris Bryant both helped to fuel the Cubs’ offense last year from April through the World Series and Leiter believes both could play a big role for the Cubs as they try to win back to back titles.
The Game
It’s cliche to say it, but baseball changes in October, and players and teams that can’t adapt don’t survive.
“You play 162 games in 180 days, so there’s a lot of baseball, right?” Smolz asks rhetorically while explaining the role of momentum in the postseason. Going into the playoffs, it would seem to be with the Cubs, Twins, Astros, and the Dodgers (who went 12-6 after going 1-16); teams that had the best records over the last week and a half.
“When the playoffs happen, everything stops. The better teams that won their division get to wait four to five days to play a game. There’s no way around it based on the system that we have today with the wild card game on Tuesday and Wednesday. So, the wild card winner supposedly has a disadvantage, but they’re playing more like… They don’t have a lot of days off.”
Smoltz says that he’s not a fan of the wild-card game, saying that it’s good for TV but “completely counterproductive to what we do as baseball players, and what the season is built around.” He also believes that the one-game playoff results don’t necessarily reveal who the better team is. “It’s just an indicator of who won that one game.”
Whether it’s the chaos of one game or the unique strategy required when trying to win a best-of-five series, execution is key. But it can be easier said than done due to the pressure that comes during the postseason. And while it may seem like splitting hairs, both Smoltz and Al Leiter have slightly differing opinions on what “clutch” means.
“When we go through these teams and you look at the roster, and you look at strengths and weaknesses, and you look at matchups… so long as those players have the ability to not do anything that deviates from what they were good at, [those] are the teams that will go deep,” says Leiter. who pins the opposite result on the nerves that may rattle some when they play in the postseason.
While Leiter is all about creating a steady environment irrespective to the stakes at hand and pins bad results on players allowing the moment and their nerves to consume them, Smoltz believes that the game changes when you’re a clutch performer. Or, you know, it doesn’t when you’re not.
“It’s the ability to have the game be slower than the tension and the pressure,” Smoltz says, adding, “If you’re not able to slow the game down to a regular season mode, you’re in trouble.”
Regardless of whose right, the point is that a challenge lays in front of the 10 playoff teams (no matter what they’ve already dealt with), the above-mentioned prospective impact players, and the often ill-considered heroes who seemingly come out of nowhere. We didn’t save a space to speculate on them or to really get into the assumed results for all that is about to unfold. Those two things are tied together because it’s the Craig Counsells and the Aaron Boones who come out of nowhere to remind anyone who dares make a prediction about October baseball that for as much as the playoffs are about preparation and execution they’re also about dumb luck and magic. And nobody has a handle on when or how that’s going to manifest itself.
MLB Network will air Thursday’s Game 1 between Boston at Houston at 4pm ET, and Friday’s Game 2 between AL Wild Card winner at Cleveland at 5pm ET. You can check out MLB Tonight all postseason long to see Leiter, Reynolds, Ripken, Smoltz, and other analysts breakdown all the playoff action on the MLB Network.
