For the second consecutive NFL season, the Super Bowl features a team playing in its own building. The Los Angeles Rams “host” the Cincinnati Bengals at SoFi Stadium in Super Bowl LVI and, even if the Rams may not have their traditional home-field advantage in the corporate environment of the big game, Los Angeles does enter as the betting favorite.
The Rams pulled off a minor upset in the divisional round, knocking off Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in what turned out to be the final game ever played by the legendary quarterback. From there, Los Angeles needed a comeback to prevail over the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game, and the Rams have won eight of the last nine games overall.
Los Angeles is flying high between a high-powered offense and a star-laden defense. No team was more “all in” than the Rams this season, using a bevy of assets to acquire players like Matthew Stafford, Jalen Ramsey, Von Miller and others. Stafford partnered with Cooper Kupp, the NFL’s most productive this season, to key a passing group featuring Odell Beckham Jr. and Van Jefferson. On defense, Los Angeles centers on Aaron Donald, arguably the most impactful defender in the NFL, and the Rams create havoc while aiming for upside.
Still, there is uncertainty around this matchup, and the Rams will need to be buttoned up in three key areas.
Keep The Heat On Joe Burrow
This isn’t breaking any ground. The Bengals have flagrant pass protection issues, and the Rams are terrific in getting after the quarterback. Cincinnati famously allowed nine sacks to a Tennessee defensive front that is solid, but not as explosive as what the Rams deploy, and the Bengals allowed 55 sacks in the regular season, No. 29 in the NFL. It is possible, or even likely, that Joe Burrow is more willing to use his legs considering the stage and the urgency, but Aaron Donald and Von Miller have massive advantages in their individual matchups.
In fact, Los Angeles generated 50 sacks in the regular season, No. 3 in the NFL, which makes for the most lopsided single positional matchup in this game between the Rams defensive front and the Bengals offensive line. It is safe to assume that the Bengals will have a few counters in place, simply because they have to understand this deficiency, but that could also allow the Rams to sit on short routes. Los Angeles generated 19 interceptions in the regular season, tied for third-most in the NFL, and the Rams have play-making on the backend. The pass rush has to be responsible and not allow Burrow’s playmaking and creativity to beat them, but a steady flow of pressure can work wonders for every other element of a defense.
Avoid Big Plays On The Backend
It’s certainly possible that Joe Mixon and the Bengals running game could have an effective day at the office. Mixon is one of the better pure runners in the NFL, and the Rams will be justifiably focused on slowing Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. With that said, the Rams actually need to be focused on Cincinnati’s passing game, and it isn’t all about the aforementioned pass rush. It would certainly be nice if the Rams “got home” repeatedly throughout the evening at SoFi Stadium, but Los Angeles is facing a Cincinnati offense with big-play potential.
For one, Chase is one of the more dynamic players in the league with the ball in his hands, and he is a threat to take it the distance on any touch. Beyond that, the Bengals lead the entire NFL in averaging 8.7 yards per pass attempt, and you can’t reach that number on just checkdowns and screens. The Bengals average just 4.0 yards per carry, and the Rams boast a top-five rushing defense on a per-play basis. That proficiency, coupled with an elite pass rush, is a strong baseline, but the Bengals can offset that if they hit a few big plays. Avoiding them is key.
Don’t Get Conservative
We’ve all seen this, both with the Rams and elsewhere in the NFL. Los Angeles was in a commanding position against Tampa Bay in the Divisional Round, only to turtle and almost join the Atlanta Falcons in the land of postseason infamy. Later in the playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs, led by the NFL’s most dynamic offense, simply stopped doing, well, anything against the Bengals defense, blowing a 21-3 lead in the process.
It isn’t as if the Rams are favored by an enormous amount in this contest, with Los Angeles entering as something around a four-point favorite, but Los Angeles is “expected” to lead the proceedings. From there, Cincinnati has made its bones with comeback bids, including twice against Kansas City, and Rams head coach Sean McVay has a tendency to get very conservative. That includes play-calling issues, leaning far too much on a mediocre ground game at times, and punting when he shouldn’t punt and kicking field goals when he shouldn’t kick field goals.
Coaches don’t change their stripes overnight and, despite his age, McVay isn’t one of the more aggressive coaches in the NFL when it comes to the analytical revolution in game management. He doesn’t have to be in this game, but there is a pretty solid chance the Rams take an early lead when accounting for their own history and that of the Bengals. If that happens, Los Angeles needs to keep their foot on the gas, not relying on a running game that averages 4.0 yards per carry and instead leaning on a prolific passing offense that features a top-10 quarterback and the NFL’s best receiver. Overall, the Rams are the more talented team, and being too passive can bridge the gap in Cincinnati’s favor.
