The magnificent pairing of conference championship games slated for Sunday — New England at Denver in the early slot, with Arizona at Carolina to follow — is the NFL’s dream foursome. There are storylines everywhere you turn and no shortage of star power on any of these rosters. Can Tom Brady make his seventh Super Bowl? Can Cam Newton pull off the next big ascension in this superlative season? Or maybe this is the last best chance at Super Bowl glory for Peyton Manning (who’s won one) and Carson Palmer (who’s never come close)? Outside of what occurs at Levi’s Stadium in two weeks, the stakes could not be any higher.
And while each of these four teams will need their best players to, well, play at their best in order to have any chance to advance, it’s going to take more than that. Someone who doesn’t get all the endorsement money and SportsCenter air time is going to need to step up. That player may well become a national star after this weekend. With so much riding on a victory, entire career paths could be formed on a single play’s success (or lack thereof).
Here are four players, one from each squad, who could end up having a significant impact on this weekend’s festivities, because no man is a Gronk entire of itself.
Carolina: Cornerback Josh Norman
It’s easy to think the marquee matchup in this game will be the Pro Bowl cornerback Norman keeping close tabs on Cardinals star receiver Larry Fitzgerald, who was so electric last week in the overtime win over Green Bay. Alas, that may not end up coming to fruition. Norman is strictly an outside cornerback who is loathe to come inside much, and Fitzgerald, who caught 109 balls for 1,215 yards, has morphed into an lethal slot receiver, playing nearly 60 percent of snaps this season on the inside. But even if Norman doesn’t directly match up much against Fitzgerald, he still needs to be come up big against Carson Palmer and a passing attack that ranked 2nd this season behind (who else?) New England. Against Seattle, Norman was downright terrible, allowing catches on every pass that came his way as well as a touchdown. It was an atypical performance for a player who enjoyed a breakout season and drew comparisons to Richard Sherman.
But if he wants elevation to the elite status of Seattle’s star shutdown corner, he’ll first have to plug up Arizona’s other options in the passing game, be it John Brown or Michael Floyd. Palmer can’t throw every ball to Fitzgerald, and a stingy Norman can limit the Cardinals’ damage and let Cam Newton and his offense get ahead and stay there for keeps.
Arizona: Running Back David Johnson
That the Cardinals pulled off the No. 1 overall offense this season was surprising, not due to their No. 2 passing game, but more because of their No. 8 rushing game. A lot of that credit goes to Chris Johnson, but he’s been out with a fractured tibia. He may be able to return should Arizona get to Santa Clara, but the only that happens is if his understudy keeps the Arizona offense clicking. Head coach Bruce Arians kept David Johnson heavily involved against Green Bay in his first career playoff start (15 carries, nine targets), but with 78 all-purpose yards won’t be enough against a team like Carolina. Arizona may find itself matching Cam Newton point-for-point out of the gate and an effective ground game, led by Johnson, that can keep the Cardinals offense balanced and lethal — they were the league’s second-highest scoring team — is the best way to make that a reality.
This is the best opponent Arizona has faced all season, and they are fully capable of beating Carolina on the road. Arians is a masterful offensive mind and their defense (5th-lowest in yards allowed) is much better than advertised. But their lack of depth at running back means Johnson needs to be more than just a decoy. He needs to accumulate serious yardage and keep the clock running when need be. He’s capable, but he gets one shot to make this happen.
New England: Wide Receiver Julian Edelman
Who was Brady’s most important receiver in the relatively comfortable win over Kansas City? Rob Gronkowski is probably what you’re thinking (eight targets, seven catches, 83 yards, two TDs), but I’d argue that Edelman, who was targeted a whopping 16 times (and made 10 catches for 100 yards), is really where New England could keep Denver off-balance defensively. Against a No. 1 passing defense that allowed fewer than 200 yards per game on average, the Pats will need to be creative and varied in their approach. That means, of course, getting Gronk the ball whenever humanly possible, but it also means using Edelman at every potential opportunity.
New England had 14 rushing attempts total against the Chiefs, six alone coming from Brady. Bill Belichick is not even pretending to run the ball, so it’s up to his receiving corps to keep this machine cranking along. The good news is, Brady can do it by himself. On passing along, the Pats can beat back this vaunted Denver defense, which is why everyone is so amped to see this play out. But it can’t be Gronk alone. Edelman has to pull in just as many balls (if not more) or the inherent limitations of this one-dimensional offense may finally spell doom for the Pats.
Denver: Running Back C.J. Anderson
The theme heading into this game has been that Denver will need to rely on its defense to win, and though that’s certainly true, the Broncos will have to score some points to stop New England. They won’t be able to pick-six Brady back to Boston, so it’ll have to come on offense, alas. Peyton Manning (21-of-37, 222 yards) showed precious little against a Pittsburgh passing defense that ranked 30th in the regular season, and Denver’s only touchdown came from C.J. Anderson who had one less carry than starter Ronnie Hillman but outgained him, 72 to 38. And so the onus again shall be on Anderson to keep this ground game plugging away on the No. 9-ranked rushing defense.
Most encouraging for Denver? Anderson’s best game this season came in Week 12 when he carved up New England for 113 yards on 13 carries, a large chunk of that coming on the game-winning 48-yard touchdown run in overtime. Even in that game, Anderson only had one more carry than Hillman, so look for Denver for keep a balanced ground game regardless. But if Anderson isn’t gaining significant yardage, Manning won’t have a prayer of exploiting New England’s secondary when actually given the chance. Remember that in the earlier win, the Pats had a 99.4 percent win probability early in the fourth quarter. Hillman and Anderson then helped Denver claw its way back in a most dramatic way. Surely, the Broncos won’t dig themselves a hole quite so big again, but if they do, they have the confidence to know that all is not necessarily lost.
