As noted before Week 1, the 2023 NFL season was kind to us. It was a winning year. It was a winning playoff run. It was a winning Super Bowl. However, Week 1 in 2024 was not as friendly and, in fact, everything that could go wrong happened to go wrong. There were terrible bets like the Panthers (yikes!) and Jets (meh), but there were also bets we’d make again but still lost.
For one, the Rams forced overtime, only to lose by 6 when getting 4.5 points. That happens over the course of the season, but that doesn’t make it any more fun. Also, that would typically be the worst loss on a five-game slate but… not this time. This time, the Titans led by 17 points against the Bears and managed to lose by seven with a calamity of errors that is difficult to describe. Perhaps the best nugget is that it was the first time in NFL history in which a team led by 17 points at halftime and lost to a team that did not reach 150 total yards. I could write 1,000 words on that loss alone, but I won’t. For now.
Anyway, we’ll attempt to right the ship in Week 2 and, before we hand out five selections, let’s look at the pain from the opener one more time.
- Week 1: 1-4
- 2024 Season: 1-4
Come get these winners.
TEASER: Buffalo Bills (+8.5) over Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) over Las Vegas Raiders — Widely Available
In the Circa Million contest, Buffalo is +3 against Miami and, if you can snag that number, I would. However, it is 2.5 almost across the board in the market, and we’re pivoting to an old reliable in the Wong teaser. We’ll take Buffalo and Baltimore through a pair of key numbers on both sides and hope to profit accordingly.
Carolina Panthers (+6) over Los Angeles Chargers — Widely Available
The Panthers will be in the “absolutely not” zone if this goes poorly, but everything in my body is pointing to this. The ATS numbers for teams coming off blowout losses are very strong, and this is the ultimate “buy low, sell high” spot. Carolina is probably terrible, but I’m going to say this is an overreaction. Prayers appreciated.
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) over Green Bay Packers — Widely Available
Carolina is as gross as it gets and, in the next breath, we’re taking a square side. I’m terrified of laying points on the road with Indianapolis, but the counter is that Green Bay is starting Malik Willis. The drop-off at quarterback is absolutely wild for Green Bay here, and we’re riding it.
Tennessee Titans (+4) over New York Jets — Widely Available
This isn’t as gross as the Carolina pick, but it might be close. Tennessee was excruciating in Week 1, but we simply must take four points at home against the Jets. Yes, New York is the better team, but the offense was not exactly a shining beacon on Monday. This could be a slugfest and grabbing the full four is critical.
Denver Broncos (+2.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers — Widely Available
The Steelers did what the Steelers always seem to do in Week 1 when they slugged their way to a road win as an underdog in Atlanta. It was the full Mike Tomlin experience, from a swarming defense to an opponent that was intent on beating itself. This time, Pittsburgh is a favorite on the road and we are once again taking a gross underdog. We were against Denver in our only win (sigh) last week, and Bo Nix is quite scary to bet on. We must stand on principle. Take the points.
