The NFL Playoffs began in mixed fashion during Wild Card weekend. While there were some lofty highs including Sunday night’s game between Washington and Tampa Bay, many of the games were lopsided with five home teams advancing by an average of 17.6 points per game. Moving forward, however, that is not necessarily a bad thing for the postseason, as the best teams in the league are still alive and the quality of competition projects to improve.
In this space, we had a winning week in the Wild Card round, making three straight positive weeks overall. Does that make up for a disastrous stretch over the first 17 weeks? Certainly not, but we’re perhaps righting the ship at a good time, even if I will rehash the 18-point fourth quarter from the Chargers-Texans game for a long time.
Before diving into a juicy Divisional Round slate, let’s take stock.
- Wild Card Weekend: 3-2
- 2025 Season: 39-54-2
Come get these winners.
Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans UNDER 21 points in the first half — Caesars
The Texans are playing quite well on defense, and the Chiefs are quite good on that side of the ball. The full game under here would also be appetizing, but there’s a chance Mahomes and company get loose late in the game or the Texans start heaving to try and make a comeback. Let’s get off to a slow start on the scoreboard and a hot start in the column.
TEASER: Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) over Houston Texans AND Buffalo Bills (+7.5) over Baltimore Ravens — FanDuel, DraftKings
With all due respect to Houston’s defense, the Chiefs as part of a Wong teaser through two key numbers was pretty much an auto-play for me. I wouldn’t want to lay 8.5, but that’s a valuable leg. The other side is trickier because, in full transparency, I was ready to take the Ravens up to +7.5 early in the week when Buffalo was favored. I honestly would’ve found value in either side as long as it was up to 7.5 or higher, and Buffalo getting more than a touchdown at home is appetizing.
Washington Commanders (+9.5) over Detroit Lions — Widely Available
Candidly, I am not over-the-moon about the Commanders in a vacuum, but this number has broken contain. The Lions are the better team and standing in front of that offense is terrifying. However, this is a big number, and Detroit’s defense was struggling quite badly before Week 18. I tend to think those problems aren’t fixed yet. Maybe Jayden Daniels can get us in the backdoor if needed.
Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) over Philadelphia Eagles — FanDuel, ESPN Bet
I’ve thought the Rams were at least slightly undervalued all season, as long as Stafford was upright and their weapons were relatively intact. That is the case here, and I’m certainly less firm on Philadelphia’s offense than most seem to be. Granted, the Eagles are the better team and should be favored, but I don’t mean leaning on Stafford and company to put together a big late drive if we need it.
Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams UNDER 22.5 points in the first half — FanDuel, BetRivers
Like the first game of the weekend, I like the full game as well, but lean to the first half. I do trust the Eagles on defense, and the Rams have been plucky or better on that side of the ball. I’m expecting a feeling-out period of some kind in the early going, and I like this number available in a few spots. Bring me all the field goals and punts.
