NFL Divisional Weekend was an all-timer in 2022, headlined by a battle between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen that will be discussed forever. From a handicapping perspective, it wasn’t an all-timer in this space, though disaster was averted, and Championship Sunday brings an opportunity to right the ship. Both games are extremely intriguing and, with only three games remaining in the NFL season, all eyes will be on the gridiron.
Before we get into a limited slate for a two-game schedule, let’s take stock of the full-season progress with exactly 100 selections in the books.
- Last Week: 2-3
- 2021 Season: 56-43-1
Come get these winners.
TEASER: Kansas City Chiefs (-1) AND San Francisco 49ers (+9.5)
We’re getting weird right out of the gate. If I’m being candid, this isn’t a slate that I love in terms of sides and totals, but we aren’t just going to punt the week. I do think the Chiefs will hold serve at home against a Bengals team that can’t block, and my confidence level on that side of this teaser is high. From there, I’m far less convinced on the Niners, but San Francisco has had the Rams’ number for a while and last week’s defensive performance from San Francisco was notably impressive. I’d bet on the Rams to win at home, but 9.5 is juicy, particularly in the era of missed extra points.
Kansas City Chiefs team total OVER 31 points
The Chiefs would be 5-1-1 against this number in the last seven weeks. Patrick Mahomes isn’t holding back from scrambling in the high-leverage realm of the playoffs, Travis Kelce is running around doing Travis Kelce things, and Cincinnati’s defense isn’t at the level of what the Chiefs have seen from teams like Pittsburgh and Buffalo. Granted, the Bengals did hold the Chiefs to 31 points just a few weeks ago, but Kansas City scored 28 first-half points before pedaling off. The main fear would be a total meltdown of Cincinnati’s offense and Kansas City turtling, but we’ll fade that.
San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams UNDER 46 points
As noted above, I was very impressed with San Francisco’s defense a week ago, even when accounting for frigid conditions in Green Bay. From there, only one game involving the 49ers has featured more than 44 points since Week 14, and San Francisco has been dialed in defensively for a while. On the other end, I can very easily see the 49ers leaning on the ground game against the Rams and trying to take the air out of the ball a bit, particularly if Jimmy Garoppolo is still limited by injury. This would’ve been a little bit juicier at the opener of 47, but 46 is enough.
