Let’s be optimistic for a moment. We’re in the midst of a run of winning records in five of the last six weeks in this space. Does that make up for an utterly terrible start to the 2024 season? Absolutely not, but things have stabilized and that’s a nice thing.
Could we talk about how impossible it was that the Atlanta Falcons didn’t cover as an underdog a week ago? Perhaps. Could we also discuss the generationally bad Cincinnati Bengals defense leading to a loss when the team scored 38 points? We could.
What we will just say for now is that the 1:00 pm ET window has been a nightmare for the last several weeks, so if things could break in a different direction, progress would be easier.
Nevertheless, we press on with Week 14 picks but, first, a look at the season-long carnage.
- Week 13: 3-2
- 2024 Season: 27-37-1
Come get these winners.
Cleveland Browns (+6.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers – Widely Available
One of our mantras is to take some of the ugliest games on the board this week and, as you will see throughout the Week 14 card, that principle remains. This is an example, as the Steelers are in a revenge spot against the Browns. However, Mike Tomlin’s numbers as a favorite of more than a field goal are anything but sterling, and Jameis Winston has always been strong against the spread as an underdog across multiple stops. Cleveland’s defense can keep this close, with the potential for backdoor fun if we need it.
New York Giants (+4.5) over New Orleans Saints – DraftKings, BetMGM
Why are the Saints laying 4.5 on the road against anyone? To be fair, I would’ve passed on this if Tommy DeVito was at the helm in New York, but it will be Drew Lock this week. It’s hideous, of course, but it’s Giants or nothing.
Carolina Panthers (+13.5) over Philadelphia Eagles – FanDuel, ESPNBet
No one wants to stand in front of the Eagles right now, but we must. Philadelphia is on an eight-game winning streak, and they are 6-1 in the last seven games against the spread. That leads to a rather substantial number here and, while I get it, the move to 13.5 opens some value on Carolina. Hold your nose and hope that Bryce Young can keep up his recent gains.
Las Vegas Raiders (+6.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Widely Available
This is a play on the number and the situation more than an endorsement of Las Vegas. The Bucs have real injury questions, including with Bucky Irving, and Aidan O’Connell has actually been a covering machine. He is 9-3-1 against the spread as the starter for the Raiders, including 5-1 on the road. Tampa Bay was less than impressive a week ago against Carolina, and Las Vegas has the benefit of two days of extra rest before this one.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) over Los Angeles Chargers – FanDuel
Wait, a favorite of more than a field goal? AND we’re taking the Chiefs? Yes and yes. If anything, this might be the market reaching a low point on Kansas City. The Chiefs have failed to cover in six (!) straight games, including a maddening performance on Black Friday against Las Vegas. The Chargers are also a touch overrated right now, especially after a game against the Falcons last week that they had absolutely no business winning. Kansas City also has two extra days rest and a legitimate home-field advantage at Arrowhead. Lay it.
