After winning in five of the previous six weeks in this space, Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season was not particularly kind. The Browns managed to lose by two scores despite out-gaining the Steelers. The Chiefs blew a 13-point halftime lead in about 10 seconds (all numbers approximate). It was a microcosm of the 2024 campaign.
Nevertheless, we press on with a full slate in Week 15. Byes are behind us, meaning there are 16 games on the schedule again, and the fun begins on Thursday evening with an unpopular selection. We’d have it no other way.
Before diving into the five picks for this week, let’s take stock.
- Week 14: 2-3
- 2024 Season: 29-40-1
Come get these winners.
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) over Los Angeles Rams – Widely Available
The 49ers have lost three of the last four. The Rams have won three of the last four, including a high-profile win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 14. San Francisco might be down to their 28th running back by the time this game starts. Naturally, we’re taking the Niners. I generally gravitate toward home teams on Thursday, and it will be a tough lift for Los Angeles to reset after a big win on a short week.
New Orleans Saints (+7.5) over Washington Commanders – DraftKings, Fanatics
We faded the Saints with success a week ago. This time, we’re on the other side. New Orleans has massive uncertainty at quarterback after Derek Carr fractured his hand, which contributes to this line being over a touchdown, but the Saints have quietly improved on defense. They’ve allowed 23 points or fewer in five straight games, and I simply can’t get this number to 7.5. Take the candy.
Carolina Panthers (-2.5) over Dallas Cowboys – Widely Available
The Carolina Panthers haven’t been favored in a football game since Week 15 of the 2022 (!) season. They’ve entered 33 games in a row as an underdog, but that projects to end on Sunday at home against Dallas. Do I think that most of those 33 games matter for this week? I do not. But I do think the Panthers are the side here. Bryce Young is playing legitimately well. Dallas can’t get out of its own way. Let’s go Panthers.
Indianapolis Colts (+4) over Denver Broncos – Widely Available
Both teams are well-rested here after byes in Week 14. That could negate a bit of Denver’s home-field advantage in this one, and I continue to be a little lower on the Broncos than the market. It’s a bit scary to take Anthony Richardson on the road against a quality defense, but Denver leans on man coverage and Richardson could be a big threat with his legs in this spot.
TEASER: Buffalo Bills (+8.5) over Detroit Lions AND Seattle Seahawks (+9) over Green Bay Packers – Widely Available
It’s been a while since we’ve gone to the teaser well, but I like this one. I was hoping for Bills +3 to pop in the market but, with that number seemingly not coming, I like the Wong teaser leg through two key numbers. For Seattle, the defense has taken a massive step forward in recent weeks, with top-five metrics on that side of the ball since their bye week. Green Bay has extra rest after a Thursday night loss to Detroit, but that was a highly emotional, close-fought loss and it’s a long trip to Seattle. The Seahawks can keep this within one score for us.
