Bye weeks arrive in full force in NFL Week 5, slimming the volume of games for the handicapping public to dive into. While that is, of course, limiting to some degree, we found our footing a bit in Week 4 and actually produced positive results. It did not come without challenges, including a maddening pick-6 from Jacoby Brissett to doom the underdog Patriots, but we press on.
Before diving into the Week 5 slate, let’s take stock of a slow start to 2024 that we’ll be trying to climb out of for a while.
- Week 4: 3-1-1
- 2024 Season: 6-13-1
Come get these winners.
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Widely Available
I generally don’t love giving out the Falcons as a lifelong Falcons fan, but this is a good spot. The Bucs are banged-up from an injury standpoint. It’s a short week for everyone, and I tend to lean toward home teams on Thursdays, especially with Atlanta not traveling between its win on Sunday and now. In addition, Tampa Bay has run quite well to begin the season, and I tend to lean toward Atlanta as the better team on a neutral field despite a one-game deficit through four weeks.
TEASER: Cincinnati Bengals (+8.5) over Baltimore Ravens and Seattle Seahawks (-0.5) over New York Giants – Widely Available
If anything, I’ve felt low on the Bengals all season, but this is a good spot for an advantage teaser leg. Cincinnati finally righted the ship a bit in Week 4, and they’re catching points at home against a Ravens team that admittedly looked great against Buffalo in a game we backed them. I think Cincy is live to win outright, and I like +2.5 in its normal state, but I’m favoring a teaser to pair with Seattle. The Seahawks take care of business at home against New York.
Buffalo Bills (-1) over Houston Texans – Widely Available
I’m not sure the Texans are good. They aren’t bad by any means, but Houston hasn’t impressed in any of its wins and the team’s one loss was quite ugly. Buffalo was smacked back to some level of reality last week, but I rate the Bills as the solidly better team. This opened around pick’em, and I wouldn’t go much higher than -1, but I do like it.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) over Indianapolis Colts – BetMGM or FanDuel
I regret to inform you that we are at it again. To be fair, we had both of these teams last week and both covered, but I do understand that the Jags are winless. Indianapolis has injury uncertainty, and I’m going to have to be proven that Jacksonville is as bad as this line foreshadows. Lay the tiny number.
New England Patriots (-1) over Miami Dolphins – Widely Available
Since the moment Tua went down, there is nothing to suggest that the Dolphins can be trusted in a virtual pick’em spot against any team in any venue, much less in a division game on the road. The Patriots burned us last week, but we’re going back to the well. I’m going to fade Tyler Huntley here against a solid-ish defense.
