Mercifully, the 2024 NFL regular season has come to an end. While the nation remains captivated by the NFL on a weekly basis, it was (by far) the worst season in the history of this column, which began in 2017. As you will see below, it was carnage from a win-loss perspective but, hey, we did win in Week 17 and Week 18.
Nevertheless, we move on to the playoffs with a busy Wild Card slate beginning on Saturday. But first, the aforementioned carnage.
- Week 18: 3-2
- 2025 Season: 36-52-2
Come get these winners.
Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 42.5 points — FanDuel, Caesars
The Texans are back in their usual Saturday afternoon time slot on Wild Card weekend, and they’re joined by a Chargers team that enjoyed a strong season under Jim Harbaugh. Naturally, I expect some grind-it-out, tough-to-watch football and, honestly, I’d enjoy it. Houston’s offense has highly underwhelmed this season, but the Texans have quietly been stout on defense. Los Angeles is often content to play low-scoring, ugly games. Bring on the punts.
Houston Texans (+3) over Los Angeles Chargers — Widely Available
This is simply a principle play when this got to 3. My confidence level in Houston’s offense is quite low, but nabbing the full field goal at home with a total in the low 40’s is pretty appealing. Does it actually matter that playoff underdogs are 52-34 ATS since 2017? Or that underdogs are 24-12 in the Wild Card round during that span? Maybe not, but I don’t hate it.
Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 43.5 points — Widely Available
Would it have been better to grab this at 45.5 or higher early in the week? Well, yes. But the column comes out when the column comes out, and I can’t give you a number that no longer exists. The danger here is that Lamar and the Ravens might find fifth gear and put up 30-plus points on their own. But I do tend to trust Pittsburgh’s defense, and the absence of Zay Flowers does make life a bit more difficult for the Ravens to be explosive.
TEASER: Buffalo Bills (-2.5) over Denver Broncos AND Los Angeles Rams (+8.5) over Minnesota Vikings — Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel
I wouldn’t love laying 8.5 points with Buffalo against a very strong Denver defense, but I do think the Bills advance and we love a good Wong teaser through two key numbers. On the other side, I think Matthew Stafford and company can keep this within one score, even amid the heartbreaking circumstances that have moved this game to Arizona.
Green Bay Packers (+5) over Philadelphia Eagles — Widely Available
Green Bay has six losses this season, but five of them are by five points or less. That includes a five-point loss to Philly in Week 1 but, of course, much has changed since then. Jordan Love is expected to go and, while Jalen Hurts will likely play, he’s been out of action for a while and could be rusty. This isn’t a game I’d give out on a normal, full slate, but I lean to the Packers.
