Perhaps a couple of months ago, I first noticed that, should the capricious and often ornery football gods smile down on us for just once, Week 16 had the chance for some real excitement. After all, we deserve it. In this mess of a year where we were just tickled to have even survived such a deflating offseason, just 11 out of 32 teams have a winning record. That’s bad football! Yes, there are superb individual teams and players, as per usual, but the overall level of play this season has been, as they say, not too good.
The next two weeks can change all that, and let’s pray they do. From home-field advantage for top seeds to the lowly Wild Card slots, playoff brackets could be filling up by Sunday night … or they could be setting the stage for an insane Week 17 in which some truly fantastical clinchers come to pass.
So those teams that still have the chance at an unlikely run? This one’s for you. Let’s take a gander and embrace the chaos:
Giants win the NFC East, Eagles and Washington out
New York has to win at Minnesota and then at home vs. Philly in the finale to have any chance. Do this and they’re 8-8. Then, all they need is Washington to lose out (at Philly, at Dallas). That would mean an NFC East division title and a home playoff date (most likely) against Seattle.
Jacksonville wins the AFC South
At 5-9, Jacksonville has a 3.5 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to Football Outsiders. They have just as good a chance (2.6 percent, to be exact) of securing a top-3 pick in the NFL draft by season’s end. That’s the weird purgatory in which this team sits, but if given their druthers, they’d certainly take the playoff berth, so all Jaguars fans will be rooting for the 3-11 Titans these next two weeks against Houston and Indianapolis, two teams that stand in the Jaguars’ way. If Jacksonville wins out along with Tennessee, the Jaguars win the division and are in at 7-9. What a strange and wonderful world that would be.
Atlanta makes the playoffs at 9-7
The Falcons have had something of an up-and-down season, starting off 5-0 and then eventually losing six in a row (a slide that was stopped last week in Jacksonville). But all’s not lost! The Falcons’ playoff odds are so infinitesimal that Football Outsiders doesn’t even register them at a 0.1 percent shot, but the chance does exist. If Atlanta wins out (vs. Carolina, vs. New Orleans), Seattle loses out (vs. St. Louis, at Arizona), and Minnesota loses out (vs. Giants, at Green Bay), then Atlanta wins the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker over the other two and Seattle wins the head-to-head tiebreaker over Minnesota. In that case, Atlanta (the No. 5 seed) would play at the NFC East winner, Green Bay would host Seattle (the no. 6), and the Vikings would be out. So yeah … just beat Carolina, is all. Dare to dream, I say.
Denver, at 11-5, is out
The Broncos can put this drama to bed with a win at home against 11-3 Cincinnati and a Chiefs loss vs. Cleveland. But if both win this week, KC can still win the division and the No. 3 seed with a win vs. Oakland and a Denver loss in San Diego. In that case, Denver most likely gets the No. 5 seed with a 11-5 record … unless both the Jets and Steelers win out. In that event, the Broncos would lose tiebreakers to KC (on division games) and the Jets and Steelers (on conference games) and be golfing in January.
Arizona nabs NFC No. 1 seed
The Panthers have a 56 percent chance of winning these last two games (at Atlanta, vs. Tampa Bay), but Carson Palmer and the Cardinals also have a 2.2 percent chance of stealing that No. 1 seed away. It’s as simple as Arizona winning out — against some brutal matchups at home against Green Bay and then Seattle — and the Panthers dropping both of their games. … OK, it’s not going to happen, but the Cardinals are 89 percent favorites to secure that No. 2 seed (beat Green Bay and it’s theirs) and that ain’t too shabby.
