With bye weeks and COVID-related uncertainty, it is possible that Week 6 of the 2020 NFL season could be in flux again by Sunday. Opportunity remains in the betting market, though, and Week 5 was kind to us with a 4-1 mark in this space.
We’re back with a five-pack of selections for this week’s slate but, before that, let’s catch up on the year-long progress.
- Week 5: 4-1
- 2020 Season: 16-8-1
Come get these winners.
Houston Texans (+3.5) over Tennessee Titans
This is a (very) short week for a Titans team that played on Tuesday evening. Tennessee is at home, but this is kind of a Super Bowl for Houston. The Texans might be dead already but, with a loss here, their season will be in the ground, and they seem to be enjoying the post-Bill O’Brien experience. Is Tennessee better than Houston? Maybe, but this is a good situational spot for the Texans.
New England Patriots and Denver Broncos UNDER 23.5 points in the first half
Unders are dangerous business this season in the NFL, and I get that. I think there might be value in the market, though, and this is a nice spot. Bill Belichick can tee off from a game plan perspective against an unimpressive Broncos offense, and the Patriots might be more than willing to keep the ball on the ground while keeping the clock moving — especially as Cam Newton possibly returns to the fold. I like this more than the full game total and the Patriots should have defensive success.
New York Jets (+9.5) over Miami Dolphins
The Jets may never cover a game again. New York is 0-5 against the spread, and it’s been excruciating in the process. In addition, the Jets got some unfortunate press with the Le’Veon Bell release this week and, well, there isn’t a lot to believe in with this team. With all of that out of the way, the Dolphins can’t be laying 9.5 points. That’s just too many. We were on Miami last week with great success, but the only side is the dog in this spot.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1) over Green Bay Packers
Green Bay has been a machine this season, and we’ve been against them with bad results. The Packers are even undefeated against the spread. As such, the world is on Aaron Rodgers and company on the road, but we are not. Tampa Bay hasn’t been firing on all cylinders necessarily, but the Bucs should have both of their star wide receivers back, and Green Bay shouldn’t have the kind of rampant offensive success they’re used to with Tampa Bay’s defense on the field. I love a good team at home with a plus sign next to their name.
Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) over Arizona Cardinals
The absence of Dak Prescott is undeniably huge for Dallas. That is also the explanation for a severe move in this number when compared to the look-ahead line. I do think it’s a bridge too far, though, as the Cowboys still have a talented roster and a reasonably solid player at quarterback in Andy Dalton. If this was on a neutral, I would understand Arizona as a favorite, but the Cardinals shouldn’t be favored on the road, even with Dalton under center. It’s a bit scary to have Dallas sitting at 0-5 against the spread, but they are the side.
